MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mixed yesterday.  Traders are getting ready for the reports from USDA tomorrow and volumes were very slow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of Texas.  The USDA reports showed that the crop continued to deteriorate in the last week, and there is little hope for much improvement this week.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor and trends are generally down.  India said it is starting to offer Cotton at differentials below the futures of New York for the first time in a couple of years.  China cut import duties in a bid to increase supplies in the country over the weekend, and increasing supplies in other countries should keep demand questions in the forefront if prices start to move higher again.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 135.67 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.087 million bales, from 0.084 million yesterday.  USDA said that its Upland Cotton world market price is 135.72 ct/lb.  ICE said that deliveries today were 47 contracts and now total 542 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 124.00, 123.00, and 120.00 October, with resistance of 130.00, 131.00, and 132.00 October.

06/28 10:50 CDT POLL-US 2011 cotton plantings up from USDA March estimate    NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Following are the results ofa survey on potential U.S. 2011 cotton plantings, compiled byThomson Reuters on Tuesday.    The USDA will release its report on potential plantings onThursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).----------------------------------------------------    In million acresAverage trade estimate                13.26Highest trade estimate                14.21Lowest trade estimate                 12.55USDA Ag Outlook forecast for cotton   12.60U.S. 2010 cotton plantings            11.04Carl Anderson, Texas A&M University   12.70Sharon Johnson, Penson Futures        12.70John Flanagan, Flanagan Trading       13.90Mike Stevens, SFS Futures             13.25Jobe Moss, MCM Group                  13.50Keith Brown, Keith Brown & Co.        14.21Jim Nunn, Nunn Cotton Co.             12.55General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday on some profit taking related to good weather in Florida.  News that a tropical system could be forming in the Atlantic had little effect on prices as the system would stay south of the US, and there is no other organized system of interest out there for now.  A system could form, but appears weak and destined for southern Mexico.  Charts show that futures have started a new leg higher.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 205.00 July.  Support is at 192.00, 188.00, and 187.00 July, with resistance at 200.00, 203.00, and 206.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Jun 28   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).                                2010-2011                         Jun 18        Jun 11      Year Ago  MOVEMENTRetail                  122,613       145,925       227,073Institutional           290,592       411,353       365,833Bulk                  1,699,674     2,545,512     1,606,038Total                 2,112,878     3,102,789     2,198,945Cumulative          115,430,447   113,317,568    92,752,171  IMPORTSForeign                 125,503       192,657       463,449Cumulative           13,032,662    12,907,160    19,247,415  RECEIPTSDomestic                 62,192        38,685        29,788  PACKRetail                  150,684       150,018       147,801Institutional           348,563       313,800       349,804Bulk                  2,761,441     2,878,826     1,958,722Less Reprocessed      1,455,199     1,502,424     1,803,188Net                   1,805,489     1,840,221       653,139Cumulative           79,036,396    77,230,908    82,252,237Inventory            75,249,578    75,388,209   128,585,201General Comments:  Futures were higher in all three markets after a surprise frost hit production areas in Parana.  It looks like a freeze damaged the Corn crop in many parts of the state, but Coffee was not hurt nearly as much.  Loss reports, if any, should surface in a couple of days.  Some flowers could also be lost, although trees should be able to form more flowers once the cold air passes through.  Another night of cold air was forecast for last night, but damage was said to be minor.  Another cold shot is possible early next week  Ideas are that Coffee prices have gone low enough for now.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  However, sources in London say there is good demand for Coffee there although who is the buyer is unknown.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  The potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.623 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 216.63 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal.  ICE said that 10 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,172 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 264.00 and 275.00 September.  Support is at 252.00, 247.00, and 244.00 September, and resistance is at 259.00, 261.00, and 265.00 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2370 September, and resistance is at 2520, 2545, and 2560 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 354.00, 362.00, and 371.00 September.  Support is at 327.00, 326.00, and 320.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 346.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher in New York and lower in London yesterday on the news of lower production once again in Brazil.  UNICA said that the Center-South Sugar crush is 134.6 million tons so far this year, down 23% from last year.  The estimate was below trade expectations, and combined with shipping delays created the idea of tight spot supplies in world markets.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India increased exports last week.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big even if they are dropping in Brazil.  Both countries are said to be behind in shipping Sugar to overseas buyers.  Prices in Thailand are said to be sharply lower this week after India moved to increase exports last week.  The market acts as if prices could move higher on the short term tightness and despite ideas of lower Brazil production despite signs of increased production globally, but then could move lower once the production gets into the market. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2800 and 3000 October.  Support is at 2630, 2600, and 2560 October, and resistance is at 2755, 2800, and 2830 October.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 705.00 and 744.00 October.  Support is at 666.00, 662.00, and 656.00 October, and resistance is at 712.00, 720.00, and 732.00 October.

General Comments:  Futures were slightly higher in New York and in London yesterday in consolidation trading.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin was the best seller.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low in recent days, but for now there is still no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.731 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.243 million tons, up 18.1% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 3010, 2985, and 2950 September, with resistance at 3045, 3060, and 3075 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1805 September, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 2000 September.

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