COMENTÁRIOS DE MANHÃ DE GRÃOS

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06/20 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA   WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. AgricultureDepartment's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent): Week ended                    06/19/11  06/12/11  06/19/10   5-year    COTTON CONDITION  - Excellent                      2         3        13       N/A  - Good                          24        25        49       N/A  - Fair                          35        38        33       N/A  - Poor                          17        17         4       N/A  - Very Poor                     22        17         1       N/A    CORN CONDITION  - Excellent                     14        13        19       N/A  - Good                          56        56        56       N/A  - Fair                          23        25        18       N/A  - Poor                           5         4         5       N/A  - Very Poor                      2         2         2       N/A    SOYBEANS CONDITION  - Excellent                     11        10        15       N/A  - Good                          57        57        54       N/A  - Fair                          26        28        23       N/A  - Poor                           4         4         6       N/A  - Very Poor                      2         1         2       N/A    RICE CONDITION  - Excellent                     22        22        22       N/A  - Good                          35        36        53       N/A  - Fair                          32        33        21       N/A  - Poor                           7         7         4       N/A  - Very Poor                      4         2         0       N/A    WINTER WHEAT CONDITION  - Excellent                      8         8        14       N/A  - Good                          28        27        51       N/A  - Fair                          23        23        26       N/A  - Poor                          19        19         7       N/A  - Very Poor                     22        23         2       N/A    SPRING WHEAT CONDITION  - Excellent                     12        11        17       N/A  - Good                          60        57        67       N/A  - Fair                          26        30        15       N/A  - Poor                           2         2         1       N/A  - Very Poor                      0         0         0       N/A    SORGHUM CONDITION  - Excellent                      3         3        12       N/A  - Good                          36        36        61       N/A  - Fair                          42        40        25       N/A  - Poor                          11        12         2       N/A  - Very Poor                      8         9         0       N/A    PEANUTS CONDITION  - Excellent                      2         2         9       N/A  - Good                          28        27        58       N/A  - Fair                          41        40        31       N/A  - Poor                          20        22         2       N/A  - Very Poor                      9         9         0       N/A    BARLEY CONDITION  - Excellent                     11        10        16       N/A  - Good                          63        56        70       N/A  - Fair                          23        29        13       N/A  - Poor                           3         4         1       N/A  - Very Poor                      0         1         0       N/A    OATS CONDITION  - Excellent                     10         9        17       N/A  - Good                          49        50        64       N/A  - Fair                          20        20        15       N/A  - Poor                           7         7         3       N/A  - Very Poor                     14        14         1       N/A    PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION  - Excellent                     11        11        15       N/A  - Good                          42        42        56       N/A  - Fair                          22        22        23       N/A  - Poor                          12        13         5       N/A  - Very Poor                     13        12         1       N/A    COTTON SQUARING               21        12        26        25    CORN EMERGED                  97        91       100        99    SOYBEANS PLANTED              94        87        93        93    SOYBEANS EMERGED              82        64        87        86    RICE EMERGED                  97        93        97        97    WINTER WHEAT HEADED           90        85        91        94    WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED        31        22        17        22    SPRING WHEAT PLANTED          91        88       100       100    SPRING WHEAT EMERGED          83        73        99        99    SUNFLOWERS PLANTED            74        56        81        85    SORGHUM PLANTED               86        75        86        84    SORGHUM HEADED                25        NA        17        17    PEANUTS PLANTED               96        93        98        98    PEANUTS PEGGING                6        NA         8         7    BARLEY PLANTED                90        88       100       100    BARLEY EMERGED                79        72        98        99    OATS EMERGED                  96        91       100       100    OATS HEADED                   41        33        64        5506/20 10:30a CST  DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Jun 20    For the week ending Jun 16, in thousand metric tons. Includeswaterway shipments to Canada. Grain             -------week ending-------       current    previous                Jun 16       Jun 9       last      mkt yr      mkt yr                                         year     to date     to dateWheat           569.3       674.4       373.0     1,466.5       989.0Rye               0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0Oats              0.0         0.0         0.1         0.0         0.1Barley            0.8         1.6         0.2         3.5         2.6Flaxseed          0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.1Corn          1,091.7       899.2       750.4    36,016.7    36,891.4Sorghum          82.8        49.7         8.0     3,135.5     3,554.0Soybeans        113.8       208.3       252.3    38,353.6    37,077.3Sunflower         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0Total         1,858.5     1,833.2     1,383.9    78,975.7    78,514.5  Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.General Comments:  Futures closed lower yesterday on harvest progress and reports of more rains in Europe.  Also hurting Wheat was the big selling by funds in response to the European economic problems and harvest progress.  Russia and its neighbors are starting to offer Wheat and are usually the cheapest sellers in the world, so some here are selling on this idea as well.  The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains.  Progress has been slower in Kansas due to showers there.  The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries continue to provide support.  Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.  CWB said that Spring Wheat planting made no progress last week and is still 87% complete.  More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota yesterday.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue.  More rain is forecast for Europe in the next few days.  Charts show that the trends are down.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation early this week.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the week.   Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady to firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  China imported 271,040 tons of Wheat bewteen January and May, down 61% from last year.  May imports were 10,308 tons, down 95% from last year.    

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 654 July.  Support is at 654, 647, and 641 July, with resistance at 664, 684, and 691 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 790, 775, and 732 July, with resistance at 810, 828, and 845 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 835 and 685 July.  Support is at 888, 884, and 879 July, and resistance is at 912, 918, and 932 July.

General Comments:  Prices were lower again yesterday on speculative selling tied to weakness seen in most commodities markets and the European economic issues.  Some forecasts for some rains in Texas and Mid South growing areas also hurt the price potential.  World production and prices remain a concern, and those prices have been soft, although have been a little firmer in Asia in the last week.  Many in Thailand are holding back to see what happens in the elections next month, and Vietnam is now ready to hold back stocks from the market to help prices there.  Weather and poor growing conditions in the US remain important, but overall crop ratings improved last week to take away some of the bullish influence.  Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry in many areas.  Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the week, but some beneficial precipitation is possible about midweek.  Texas crops appear to be mostly fair, but overall crops showed good improvement.  It has been very dry there, so irrigation is being used.  Chart trends are down for the short term. 

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with no objectives.  Support is at 1369, 1364, and 1356 July, and resistance is at 1390, 1405, and 1427 July.

General Comments:   Corn was mostly higher and Oats were lower again yesterday on weather and crop conditions.  Buying was also seen on ideas that the market got a little oversold last week.  Much of the selling was in response to the economic problems seen in Europe and ideas that crop conditions were getting better.  However, there is a lot of rain in the forecast for the Midwest this week, and quite a bit of rain was seen in the Midwest over the weekend.  Basis levels have turned weaker in the country, but Gulf basis levels remain stable.  Overall conditions appear to be mixed as USDA noted in the weekly reports.  Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats development, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress.  Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season.  September could be the strongest month if weather remains cool and progress remains slow as crop progress is late now.  Crops near and south of Chicago look mostly good but very late.  There are a lot of holes in fields where water had been standing.  Supplies could be very tight by September.  Trends are down for now.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to weak in the Midwest.  China imported 12,010 tons of Corn in May, more than twice as much as last year.  Calendar yewar to date imports are now 24,491 tons.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 675 and 618 July.  Support is at 692, 659, and 654 July, and resistance is at 714, 727, and 730 July.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 321 and 304 July.  Support is at 342, 336, and 327 July, and resistance is at 354, 358, and 361 July.

General Comments:  Soybeans and products closed higher yesterday on ideas the selling was overdone last week and on some reports of stronger cash markets in Brazil.  Cash markets in the interior US also remain strong as farmers do not appear too interested in selling, but products basis levels are mostly unchanged.  The weather for this week looks warmer for most growing areas, but some precipitation likely off and on all week.  Crops near and south of Chicago in Illinois are just emerging.  Demand does not seem that strong.  Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice.  Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now.  South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow.  Charts show that trends are down. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.  Midwest basis levels were steady to firm. China bought 4.56 million tons of Soybeans in May, up 4% from last year.  Calendar year to date imports are now 19.41 million tons.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1299 July.  Support is at 1331, 1313, and 1307 July, and resistance is at 1353, 1355, and 1360 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 349.00, 342.00, and 341.00July.  Support is at 349.00, 345.00, and 343.00 July, and resistance is at 355.00, 360.00, and 364.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5430 July.  Support is at 5560, 5510, and 5485 July, with resistance at 5640, 5710, and 5740 July.

General Comments:  Canola was lower again yesterday in light volume liquidation selling.  Traders are starting to get ready for the StatsCan planted area report to be released Thursday, but ideas are that the reports will not be all that accurate as the bad weather seen in June is not to be included.  Demand seems to have dried up.  Planting progress remains very slow in Canada.  Rains are forecast for Europe again this week to improve things there.  A slow planting pace remains the primary support here.  Palm Oil was higher in consolidation trading and after a big down week last week.  Positive export data from private sources provided support as did ideas of increasing demand for the short term.  Weakness in Chicago is hurting price action here. Trends are down. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 570.00, 553.00, and 536.00 July.  Support is at 579.00, 569.00, and 564.00 July, with resistance at 583.00, 589.00, and 600.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3100 September.  Support is at 3185, 3150, and 3130 September, with resistance at 3330, 3395, and 3410 September.

Midwest Weather:   Scattered showers and storms over the week.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.

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