As economias são susceptíveis de retardar a mudança no mundo árabe

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Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution has freed the Tunisian people from a repressive 23-year-old autocrac, but the resulting unrest has drained the nation's sunkissed Mediterranean beaches of much-needed tourism.

The small North African nation's interim government is doing what it can to shock the tourism industry back to life. 

For now, that means ad campaigns, chock full of dark humor. 

"They say Tunisia is nothing but ruins," one poster reads, featured on busses across Europe. In the background, ancient ruins slowly crumble in Carthage, Tunisia's ancient Roman city.

"Fear has been identified as the main issue facing European tourists in choosing Tunisia as a travel destination, due to the post-revolutionary perception on security and country stability," said the woman behind the new posters, Syrine Cherif, managing director of Memac Ogilvy Label, the Tunis-based branch of an international advertising giant, contracted by the Tourism Board.

Cherif says her advertisements address prospective tourists' concerns with a sense of humor.

Commissioning provocative posters is one of the Tunisian interim government's many frantic measures to resuscitate its languishing tourism industry, once the bread and butter of the small North African economy. But without a stable government and with war raging in next-door Libya, Tunisian tourism is in peril.

A post-Bouazizi Breakdown

Tunisia's other sectors are ailing as well.

"The Spring has had a huge impact on foreign exchange earnings and employment," said Elliot Abrams, Tunisia expert and senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington D.C..

Expressing that strong economies are a necessary basis for the successful democratization of the post-Jasmine Arab world, Abrams cited an example from a similar situation, on the other side of the Atlantic.

"Latin America's Spring or turn from military juntas to democracy failed where people concluded it had brought them no economic improvement," he said.

"Democracy is at risk if democracy does not produce."

The Arab spring's tidal wave of popular movements has swept away tyrannical regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, two and three decades old, respectively.

But that tidalwave has also sunk the North African nations' budgets, as floods of protestors demand public spending on higher minimum wages and social benefits.

Tunisia's real GDP is expected to contract by 1.5 percent this year, and its budget deficit is expected to amount to as much as 4.5 percent of GDP, according to a report published by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington D.C.. That will undoubtedly frustrate the 14.5 percent of Tunisians the Institute predicts will face unemployment this year, a 1.5 percent increase from a 2010 under the more stable-- albeit repressive-- Ben Ali regime.

And it was partially true what "they say"-- Tunisia IS partially in ruins after factories and other infrastructural foundations for production and the introduction of foreign direct investment (FDI) were burned to the ground in the Tunisian people's fight against autocracy.

In Egypt, the Arab world's second revolutionary trailblazer, the situation is much worse. Just under 12 percent of the population is unemployed, in an almost 2 percent rise from the previous year under ousted Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, and the Arab Republic's real GDP is expected to decline by nearly double the amount of Tunisia's, with the budget deficit amounting to nearly 10 percent of GDP.

In the ultimate of Catch-22s, Tunisia and Egypt will need to establish good government and anti-corruption measures, in order to attract foreign direct investment-- in order to secure the growth of good government.

The IIF's Deputy Director of the Africa and Middle East Department, Garbis Iradian, has more faith that Tunisia will bounce back faster than Egypt, the most populous nation in the Arab world.

"I think I am more hopeful for Tunisia to put things in place," Iradian said, "The population in Tunisia is more homogenous. In Egypt you have so many different groups of people to bring together."

Oil floats

In the flailing economies of the Arab spring, analysts are finding that in both the Arab world economies and in nature, oil floats.

With the exception of Libya and Yemen, the universal demand for natural energy to fuel economies from China to the United States are ensuring that the oil industry will not only come out of the Spring unscathed, but more profitable than ever.

The aggregate real GDP for all the oil-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is expected to rise 1.4 percent, according to IIF figures, while the aggregate real GDP oil-importing Arab nations are expected to decline by a whopping 4.9 percent.

Libyan oil made up roughly two percent of the entire world's oil production before Colonel Moammar Gaddafi waged an all-out war against his administration's opposition.

Now, that foreign capital has been diverted to Gulfi oil companies.

Compounded by higher oil prices and production, the growth rates of small oil-producing nations in the Arab Gulf like Qatar are expected to double this year.

But booming oil economies don't always mean happy citizens.

Despite Saudi Arabia's vast oil reserves-- comprising 13 percent of the world's total oil production-- Saudi Arabia's unemployment rate has hovered around 10 percent in the past couple of years, according to Saudi bank estimates.

Also, many analysts in the Arab world hold that pegging the collective Arab world economy to the oil trade is a fool's bargain.

"Dependence on Arab oil has frustrated the progress of Arab history and allowed oil-rich countries to fund conservative, nay reactionary, religious ideologies around the world," said As'ad AbuKhalil, Arab-American political commentator who has written widely on the subject of oil in the Middle East for his much acclaimed Web site, The Angry Arab news service.

Building foundations

Offering Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah advice on how to appease a potentially restive population without depending heavily on oil, the IIF's Iradian suggested that the Saudi kingdom increase public spending to decrease joblessness and relax laws that he says make Saudi Arabia a "very rigid society."

And as for countries like Tunisia and Egypt, without any oil to act as a lifesaver to their sinking economies, there are a series of international aid packages headed their way from countries like the United States, hoping that the money will stabilize the two nations. And hoping beyond hope that those two nations will act as a model for the rest of the embattled Middle East.

But Arab economists say foreign aid might hurt more than it will help.

"I strongly feel that democracy models need to be locally grown and locally supported. A really large and underplayed factor in why a large portion of Arab audiences are disengaged from political involvement is low morale and feelings of indifference -- we do not feel that many policies directly affect us or take us into consideration," said Hazami Barmada, Co-Founder and CEO of Al-Mubadarah: Arab Empowerment Initiative, an independent international NGO devoted to developing a global platform for Arab development.

"A thorough needs-assessment needs to be conducted prior to budgets being allocated internationally based on assumptions of local needs. Sadly to date, many international development packages represent the select interests of a few -- they either target high-end innovation or micro-finance, both of which are leaving out the vast majority that operate between these two extremes.."

The CFR's Elliot Abrams offered a solution to the problem of establishing strong economic foundations for democracy in Egypt and Tunisia, sans aid packages.

"The countries that did the best [at establishing the economic foundations for a foundling democracy] were those that changed the most toward an open economy and free markets-- places like Chile and Estonia," he said.

"Doing this is very hard, but the only reliable way forward."

View the original article here

As economias são susceptíveis de retardar a mudança no mundo árabe

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Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution has freed the Tunisian people from a 23-year autocracy but also drained their sunkissed Mediterranean beaches of much-needed tourism.

The small North African nation's interim government is doing what it can to shock the tourism industry back to life. 

For now that means ad campaigns, chock full of dark humor. 

"They say Tunisia is nothing but ruins," one poster reads, featured on busses across Europe. In the background, ancient ruins slowly crumble in Carthage, Tunisia's ancient Roman city.

"Fear has been identified as the main issue facing European tourists in choosing Tunisia as a travel destination, due to the post-revolutionary perception on security and country stability," said the woman behind the new posters, Syrine Cherif, managing director of Memac Ogilvy Label, the Tunis-based branch of an international advertising giant, contracted by the Tourism Board.

Cherif says her advertisements address prospective tourists' concerns with a sense of humor.

Commissioning provocative posters is one of the Tunisian interim government's many frantic measures to resuscitate its languishing tourism industry, once the bread and butter of the small North African economy. But without a stable government and with war raging in next-door Libya, Tunisian tourism is in peril.

A post-Bouazizi Breakdown

Tunisia's other sectors are ailing as well.

"The Spring has had a huge impact on foreign exchange earnings and employment," said Elliot Abrams, Tunisia expert and senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington D.C..

Expressing that strong economies are a necessary basis for the successful democratization of the post-Jasmine Arab world, Abrams cited an example from a similar situation, on the other side of the Atlantic.

"Latin America's Spring or turn from military juntas to democracy failed where people concluded it had brought them no economic improvement," he said.

"Democracy is at risk if democracy does not produce."

The Arab spring's tidal wave of popular movements has swept away tyrannical regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, two and three decades old, respectively.

But that tidalwave has also sunk the North African nations' budgets, as floods of protestors demand public spending on higher minimum wages and social benefits.

Tunisia's real GDP is expected to contract by 1.5 percent this year, and its budget deficit is expected to amount to as much as 4.5 percent of GDP, according to a report published by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington D.C.. That will undoubtedly frustrate the 14.5 percent of Tunisians the Institute predicts will face unemployment this year, a 1.5 percent increase from a 2010 under the more stable-- albeit repressive-- Ben Ali regime.

And it was partially true what "they say"-- Tunisia IS partially in ruins after factories and other infrastructural foundations for production and the introduction of foreign direct investment (FDI) were burned to the ground in the Tunisian people's fight against autocracy.

In Egypt, the Arab world's second revolutionary trailblazer, the situation is much worse. Just under 12 percent of the population is unemployed, in an almost 2 percent rise from the previous year under ousted Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, and the Arab Republic's real GDP is expected to decline by nearly double the amount of Tunisia's, with the budget deficit amounting to nearly 10 percent of GDP.

In the ultimate of Catch-22s, Tunisia and Egypt will need to establish good government and anti-corruption measures, in order to attract foreign direct investment-- in order to secure the growth of good government.

The IIF's Deputy Director of the Africa and Middle East Department, Garbis Iradian, has more faith that Tunisia will bounce back faster than Egypt, the most populous nation in the Arab world.

"I think I am more hopeful for Tunisia to put things in place," Iradian said, "The population in Tunisia is more homogenous. In Egypt you have so many different groups of people to bring together."

Oil floats

In the flailing economies of the Arab spring, analysts are finding that in both the Arab world economies and in nature, oil floats.

With the exception of Libya and Yemen, the universal demand for natural energy to fuel economies from China to the United States are ensuring that the oil industry will not only come out of the Spring unscathed, but more profitable than ever.

The aggregate real GDP for all the oil-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is expected to rise 1.4 percent, according to IIF figures, while the aggregate real GDP oil-importing Arab nations are expected to decline by a whopping 4.9 percent.

Libyan oil made up roughly two percent of the entire world's oil production before Colonel Moammar Gaddafi waged an all-out war against his administration's opposition.

Now, that foreign capital has been diverted to Gulfi oil companies.

Compounded by higher oil prices and production, the growth rates of small oil-producing nations in the Arab Gulf like Qatar are expected to double this year.

But booming oil economies don't always mean happy citizens.

Despite Saudi Arabia's vast oil reserves-- comprising 13 percent of the world's total oil production-- Saudi Arabia's unemployment rate has hovered around 10 percent in the past couple of years, according to Saudi bank estimates.

Also, many analysts in the Arab world hold that pegging the collective Arab world economy to the oil trade is a fool's bargain.

"Dependence on Arab oil has frustrated the progress of Arab history and allowed oil-rich countries to fund conservative, nay reactionary, religious ideologies around the world," said As'ad AbuKhalil, Arab-American political commentator who has written widely on the subject of oil in the Middle East for his much acclaimed Web site, The Angry Arab news service.

Building foundations

Offering Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah advice on how to appease a potentially restive population without depending heavily on oil, the IIF's Iradian suggested that the Saudi kingdom increase public spending to decrease joblessness and relax laws that he says make Saudi Arabia a "very rigid society."

And as for countries like Tunisia and Egypt, without any oil to act as a lifesaver to their sinking economies, there are a series of international aid packages headed their way from countries like the United States, hoping that the money will stabilize the two nations. And hoping beyond hope that those two nations will act as a model for the rest of the embattled Middle East.

But Arab economists say foreign aid might hurt more than it will help.

"I strongly feel that democracy models need to be locally grown and locally supported. A really large and underplayed factor in why a large portion of Arab audiences are disengaged from political involvement is low morale and feelings of indifference -- we do not feel that many policies directly affect us or take us into consideration," said Hazami Barmada, Co-Founder and CEO of Al-Mubadarah: Arab Empowerment Initiative, an independent international NGO devoted to developing a global platform for Arab development.

"A thorough needs-assessment needs to be conducted prior to budgets being allocated internationally based on assumptions of local needs. Sadly to date, many international development packages represent the select interests of a few -- they either target high-end innovation or micro-finance, both of which are leaving out the vast majority that operate between these two extremes.."

The CFR's Elliot Abrams offered a solution to the problem of establishing strong economic foundations for democracy in Egypt and Tunisia, sans aid packages.

"The countries that did the best [at establishing the economic foundations for a foundling democracy] were those that changed the most toward an open economy and free markets-- places like Chile and Estonia," he said.

"Doing this is very hard, but the only reliable way forward."

View the original article here

Apostar na extremidade do mundo - ouro

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Anyone following along on the world debt crisis can see everybody is broke. And the speculators are betting on who goes down first then second and so on. That is a TON of money betting on more financial chaos destabilizing markets. The Central banks have done everything they can to combat it and they are falling behind now. Its about over, this several year hiatus from the financial crashes of 2008 and 2007.

I cannot imagine the people at CNBC going on air live day after day tracking this chaos. Even so, I think half of those people at CNBC are on some agenda that is different from their audience - IE making everything sound fine, when it's not fine. It's all collapsing or about to collapse. I have seen two of the worst shills ever - on CNBC. I wont say the name, you can easily figure out who they are, like the one telling people to buy bank stocks in 2007 and 2008 right when they were collapsing. I'm amazed the guy is still on the air. His time will come. It was clear as day what he was doing, and he is doing this with YOUR money.

Gold and oil are steady

The only market which is showing some rationality is oil and gold. Gold especially. Every other market is infected with hundreds of billions of carry trade money. So - no logic, only speculation and big swings. Even silver is getting jacked around because it's so speculative (always has been - you might want to shift some silver into gold as gold is not so wacky).

But following along on markets, everything is speculation now, and has leverage. And the Credit Default swaps market (bets on credit and bonds of all types) is rampant. They are betting on who will go bankrupt first, and this is over entire countries now! They are betting on the end of the world! Every time the CDS market panics, another $hundred billion bailout is voted in.

Remember the flash crash? Did anyone mention that the next day the first huge multihundred billion Euro bailout was voted in that weekend by the EU. They were given a huge threat. That flash crash was not an accident. Did u hear anyone being investigated? Have you heard of ANY bankers other than like two getting jailed for all the losses around the world in massive fraud? Nope. They are all walking! They are all bold as hell and they are all connected with organized crime! Yes. Half the bankers are organized crime.

Who is the next carcass?

So everyone with billions to bet is jumping on the sickest carcass, the only end can be a total collapse of each country in turn financially. The weakest ones first. When the Shit hits the Fan, the biggest carcass out there will be the USD and the USA. The only money big enough to withstand these attacks are government treasuries with public money, and this is running out! Try getting the US to do another bailout of $800 billion now with the US budget crisis. That type of effort is history. So where is the money going to come next? Probably from a massive stock crash. And another bank panic. And add a Euro crisis on top. A nice multilevel cake of financial doom.

Euro is right on the edge

We are on the verge of another Euro crisis right now; Greece (whose people are notorious for not paying taxes) is holding a gun to Germany and France's heads. If each new country in trouble is not bailed out, Credit Default swaps (bets on credit about to go bad) drag down every major bank in civilization except maybe the Namibia bank which only has ten dollars net anyway.

But the other banks in Germany, the US, and France, all will go down if either Greece or Spain crash hard. And they will too. The biggest problem Greece has is they don't pay taxes and the government is effectively running its entire self on loans from whoever get held up in each installment of the next bailout, and the next and the next...so far a two year long story.

Euro headed for existential crisis

So, Greece WILL go down and the feared international bank crisis will unfold once again. It's only a matter of time. I would bet the Euro has an existential crisis within two years. So will the USD. We have two years left max. The next solution will be a global money system or at least one for the entire West, and one for the Asians. I would bet ten to one that all the tax deferred savings in the Western countries will be tapped for the last final bailout.You'll be forced to buy US Treasury bonds. You will see. (People don't get what tax deferred means. It means that when you take out the money you pay the tax then, not when you earned the money, hence they can just raise the tax rates for those withdrawals, and...to boot, to even get the tax exemption, you will be forced to buy 'qualifying tax deferred investments' - you know what that means or do I have to spell it out for you?)

No way out

In other words, Greece and the EU is hostage to this crisis. So is the Euro. Now let's ask a question, what will be the outcome of this situation? Will the Euro survive another summer and not go under? Such a question of the Euro going down has to send shivers through all Europe.

So who goes first, the Euro or the USD? I bet the Euro. The US has its own problems but we can still borrow a ton of money - so far.

In the latest Fed bailout, Greek CDS holders were bailed out again by the US and other countries. If not Greece would have imploded already. So, the CDS markes get to bet on the demise of Greek bonds, but their losses are guranteed against by the public, or else the entire world bank system collapses! Nice.

We need to think what would happen if Greece did not get bailed out again. Because the day is coming when the next bailout of Greece or especially Spain, is going to fail. Then we get the chickens all around the world coming home to roost. That will be mega bank crisis number 3 (the Bear crisis of 2007 is number 1, the Lehman crisis in 2008 is number 2).

Bear, then Lehman then - Greece

The Greek thing is bad enough that even China was jumping into their debt markets in recent weeks buying the debt because if they didn't the Euro was crashing. In other words, the entire world is now hooked together in a common fate, a debt spiral that is bankrupting everybody, and the only sources of credit left, frankly the US Fed, is all that stands between our savings and a 4000 point stock crash, to begin with.

If your money is in stocks it's a sitting duck. There are stocks that I like and but we are waiting for a stock correction at least before we consider buying. That leaves things like gold and gold stocks and cash savings for now.

USD rally

If the Euro were to crash the USD would continue rallying (we called the USD bottom on April 25) and this would cause pressure to unwind markets because the USD has been the carry trade currency of choice since about 2006. Which means that all that borrowed stock money invested by banks in the stock markets will want to come out. (In the Fed market support operations like QE, the banks borrow money at a half percent and buy stocks, the Fed intended this to support stocks, when the USD rises they have to unwind those trades).

Ultimately, the US credit ratings will get downgraded (noises to that effect already by rating agencies) and US interest rates will rise. Ultimately credit which has kept markets from crashing will disappear, and the USD will face its first existential crisis. In that case we estimate the first shock to the USD would be a 30 pct. haircut in FX markets. That is almost impossible to imagine. This IS coming.

Usually, other central banks will step in to stop the USD from falling. But this time, there is much less money to throw at the problem. The world is on the brink of another bout of financial chaos, only this time it won't stop with some emergency bailout. And the problems are much bigger now.

The interesting thing is that the USD is rallying, but the reasons are there. The Euro is in so much trouble, I am amazed that it's even over par with the USD. The only banking system that is working is the US related one. Tell me that is not the case as the Fed bails out foreign banks every week? This is not reported now. The China bank system is a joke and not ready whatsoever for the coming crash there.

A very disturbing trend is stories that China and Russia have divested much of their US Treasury holdings. They did this as the USD rose recently. Perfect timing.

Massive financial disinformation in media

As a matter of fact nothing is reported now. Most of the information you hear on CNBC and others is cheerleading. They cut off guests mid-sentence and ridicule them (favorite tool of media to suppress guests) if the guest says anything negative. Just watch CNBC and see the direction the media wants you all to think in. The media now looks at you (their customers) as simpletons. I know because I come from a media family, and these days the arrogance of the media is unreal, me and my dad have commented on this. The media looks down on common people (you).

Your financial media is lying to you

So, since they despise you, maybe you need other researchers, and other sites on the internet where you can do some sifting. At least you won't have a fool media guy shouting down guests they don't like- (on CNBC look at who is their caustic guy or three of them, and if the shoe fits, realize you are listening to a shill every day once you recognize it). I would like to name names but describing the behavior is quite effective enough. It would be fun to create an internet shill reporting site. We would have every shill running for cover. But even if that doesn't happen, don't worry, the masses will eat them alive after the coming crashes. The shills are arming themselves already as are the bankers! Mabye they are afraid people will remember them in a bad light, given the fact that they lie every day,, and the lies are adding up...the public isn't stupid. You know, what goes around....the biggest shill has a name with a C. He has no conscience. Another has a K in his name. They say anything to get you to buy when the markets are going down. They cut off people who have negative information. They lie. And they even laugh about it.

You need good information

But make no bones about it; the most precious commodity out there in markets right now is good information. Particularly if you need to make investment decisions.

In any case, this Summer is going to be a doozy - and then we haven't even talked about the implications of the Mid East falling apart on potential gold and oil prices. I get the impression we are in a calm before one huge storm coming. We are ultra conservative at PrudentSquirrel.

We have helped our suscribers avoid some of the biggest crashes by warning of crashes in advance, our latest call was the USD rally which popped the silver bubble.

In any case if you value market calls like our latest USD call which affected all markets and currencies, you might like to stop by and check us out. One thing we do is make real predictions. Not only explaining what happened after the fact.

The Prudent Squirrel newsletter is our financial and gold commentary. Subscribers get 44 newsletters a year on Sundays, and also mid week email alerts as needed. The alerts include quick notification of important financial news developments by email. Subscribers tell us that the alerts alone are worth subscribing for.

We invite you to stop by and have a look.

Copyright 2011

Christopher Laird

Editor in Chief

www.PrudentSquirrel.com

Disclaimer: Chris Laird is not an investment advisor/professional. This article, and the PrudentSquirrel newsletter and alerts, are general market commentary only. They are not intended as specific advice. You should talk to your own investment professionals for specific advice. Information here is deemed reliable but should be verified by you if you think it's important.

View the original article here

Mundo tem lados

Dia 16 de Junho de 2011, última atualização 13: 01 GMT pelo jornalista Damian Kahya negócios, BBC News Ministro das Finanças francês Christine Lagarde é considerado o principal candidato para o cargo como o FMI, os dois candidatos seleccionados para liderar a monetária internacional de fundo foram ao redor do mundo para conseguir apoio para suas aplicações.

Na quinta-feira, o governador do Banco Central do México, Agustin Carstens, encontrou oficiais do governo na China para tentar ganhar o apoio de Pequim.

Como Christine Lagarde antes dele, ele é não proteger uma promessa, descrevendo suas conversações como "frutífera".

Mas com a Europa unida por trás do Ministro das Finanças francês, até mesmo o Sr. Carstens descreveu sua candidatura como uma "batalha feroz".

Ainda, alguns dos países mais poderosos têm ainda declarar o seu apoio.

"Eu acho que vai ser uma votação muito apertada," disse acadêmico Lord Desai.

"Até que os americanos declaram sua mão, até que a senhora gorda canta, não é em toda parte,", acrescentou.

O FMI está à procura de um novo chefe, a detenção do antigo Director geral Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Continue a ler a história principal

a minha impressão é que Christine Lagarde tem sido praticamente costurado "

a tarifa final Aiden Manktelow Economist Intelligence Unit Sr. Strauss-Kahn renunciou em Maio, depois que ele foi indiciado por tentativa de estupro de uma empregada do hotel em Nova York." Ele negou as acusações.

O FMI desempenha o papel de um Banco Mundial e o regulador.

Atualmente, ela é vista como particularmente importante na Europa, onde ele está envolvido no resgate de a Grécia e a República da Irlanda.

O novo Director-geral é nomeado pelo Conselho de administração do FMI 24 - pessoa 30 de Junho.

A votação será decidida por um complexo sistema de cotas.

O sistema está em processo de reforma.

O novo chefe do FMI terá que enfrentar os complexos problemas políticos na Europa

Os países em desenvolvimento que as reformas deve ser acelerados para dar-lhes uma parcela maior.

Atualmente, os Estados Unidos têm o maior número de votos, com cerca de 16,8% do total. O Reino Unido tem 4,5%, enquanto a China tem apenas por 3,8%.

Dia 10 de Junho, o FMI tem produzido uma lista restrita de dois candidatos, a Sra. Lagarde e m. Carstens.

Chefe do Banco Central israelense Soixante-sept-year-old Stanley Fischer foi demitido por causa da idade.

O carismático Ministro das Finanças francês é considerado por mais como um favorito e conta com o apoio da Europa.

"Tenho a impressão foi que Christine Lagarde tem ele muito bem costurado," disse Aiden Manktelow da Economist Intelligence Unit.

Um Europeu é o chefe do FMI para 65 anos em um acordo informal com os Estados Unidos para dividir o trabalho de topo do FMI e do Banco Mundial.

Continue lendo a história principal

os europeus ter jogado este jogo muito mal. "Esta é a arrogância, a suposição de que eles devem apenas o MD"

terminam quote Dr Paola Subacchi Chatham House os países em desenvolvimento têm chamado para o novo chefe do FMI para ser escolhido no mérito e não por nacionalidade.

O Presidente francês Nicolas Sarkozy disse a senhora deputada Lagarde é "soberbamente qualificado" para o trabalho.

Tendo já apoiou um candidato de um país em desenvolvimento, primeiro-ministro britânico David Cameron, disse no mês passado e havia um caso de"bom" para o trabalho ir para um Europeu.

O resto da União Europeia e o Noruega deve votar da mesma maneira.

Em Maio, o Presidente da Comissão Europeia José Manuel Durão Barroso disse que ele lance o Ms Lagarde "totalmente aprovado".

O endosso de um candidato francês Europeu tem sido criticado por alguns países em desenvolvimento.

"Os europeus têm realmente jogar este jogo muito mal". "Esta é a arrogância, a suposição de que eles devem apenas ser o MD [Director-geral do FMI], apenas tomar para concedido, realmente prejudica uma nomeação muito boa e um candidato muito bom," explica Dr Paola Subacchi, diretor de pesquisa em economia internacional em Chatham House.

Sra. Lagarde ganhou apoio limitado até agora declarado fora da Europa.

Na África, tem o apoio das antigas colônias francesas no Senegal e Guiné-Bissau.

O Ministro egípcio das relações exteriores, Nabil El-Araby também anunciou seu apoio ao candidato francês.

Sr. Carstens não tem forte apoio de um poderoso bloco votar no FMI.

"É como começar um jogo de beisebol com um placar de 5-0 sem um único campo que foi lançado, porque você sabe que os europeus não têm adoptado o espírito do processo", disse quinta-feira.

Alguns países latino-americanos são graciosos o mexicano.

No início deste mês, Ministro dos negócios estrangeiros da Colômbia - Maria Angela Holguín, disse que seu país e um grupo de outros iria apoiá-lo.

Eles incluem a Venezuela, na Bolívia, Peru, Panamá, Uruguai, México, Paraguai, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, República Dominicana e Nigéria.

Este número, o México tem o maior número de votos, com apenas 1,5% do total.

Brasil e a Argentina não ainda disseram como eles vão votar.

Na verdade, a maioria dos votos do FMI não é relatada ainda.

Agustin Carstens visitou a China de rali para sua candidatura

A Rússia sugeriu, pode apoiar a Sra. Lagarde, com o primeiro-ministro Vladimir Putin disse no mês passado que foi "inteiramente aceitável" para o papel.

Os dois rivais têm todos os duas detidos reuniões com representantes dos Estados Unidos.

Seguindo os passos da Sra. Lagarde, Sr. Carstens conheceu US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner segunda-feira.

Um porta-voz elogiou a sua "mistura de financeiro talento e habilidade política forte".

O chefe mexicano do Banco Central já ter sido Assistente de diretor do FMI.

No entanto, nos funcionários não iria ser desenhados no que eles suportam.

Durante suas visitas à China, a Índia e o Brasil, a Sra. Largarde conseguiram tomar as promessas de apoio.

"Apesar do fato de que eles gostam e, obviamente, encontrá-lo muito, apesar disso, ela poderia não realmente obter o apoio da China e a Índia,", disse a Sra. Subacchi.

Sr. Carstens até agora também falhou em seus esforços.

Enquanto os apoiantes de Christine Lagarde disseram que um Europeu é necessário para gerenciar a complexidade política da crise da dívida na área do euro, Sr. Carstens argumenta o contrário.

"Temos uma situação onde os mutuários dominam a instituição credora," advertiu.

Com efeito, a crise grega é susceptível de afectar o resultado de uma maneira ou de outra.

Lord Desai pensa que ele deve trabalhar contra a Sra. Lagarde.

"Não sei por que as pessoas pensam que ele pode classificá-lo, não foi capaz de desvendar esses 18 meses,"ele diz".

Quem ganha, a corrida entre um Europeu e um mexicano, foi como nenhum outro para 65 anos.

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Produtos saltando como G - mundo de crescimento 8 autónoma disse

Sentindo-se recuperado sexta-feira como confiança declaração mostrou o G-8 sobre as perspectivas de crescimento global do mercado. O dólar caiu para um mínimo de 1 semana contra o euro, depois que notícias afirmou que China iria aumentar a aquisição de obrigações Europeu. O contrato de frente-mês para o petróleo bruto de preço elevado com arestas para 100.59, a + 0,36%, depois de ter perdido mais de 1% no dia anterior. Petróleo bruto Brent fechou Apartamento em 115, mas o movimento de preços é menos volátil em comparação com WTI crude. Ouro saltou 1543.5 alta antes de se mudar para 1536.3, até + 0,89%. Pedido de uma alternativa às moedas fiat é forte como preocupações fiscais permanecem elevadas nas economias avançadas.

Após a declaração do G-8 revelaram que a recuperação econômica global "está ganhando em intensidade e torna-se mais para baixo." Se os líderes políticos se manteve cautelosos sobre problemas de dívida fiscal em muitos países, incluindo os Estados Unidos e o Japão e comprometeram-se a adoptar formas eficazes para reduzir a dívida. Enquanto que o Japão está autorizado a aplicar medidas de austeridade para reduzir seus déficits, Japão Fitch Ratings de crédito outlook para "negativo". Mais uma vez isto tem gerado preocupações sobre as condições fiscais do país e estimulou a demanda por títulos de ouro e de alta qualidade, como o alemãs bunds.

O euro aumentou enquanto a crise da dívida soberana na região ainda não foi resolvida. Sentido de Klaus Regling.

Com relação aos dados econômicos, renda pessoal U.S. cresceu + 0,4% m/m om Abril, relaxamento de + 0,5% no mês anterior. Crescimento em gastar um pessoal + 0,4% em Abril, abaixo de consenso de um + ganho de 0,5% e um aumento de encontrados % no mês anterior. A Universidade de Michigan, índice de confiança foi surpreendentemente revista superior para 74,3, de uma leitura preliminar de 72,4, em Maio. Na pendência de vendas foram uma decepção, queda-11. 6% m/m em Abril, depois de um aumento de 5,1% um mês atrás. O mercado tinha planejado um declínio de % mais soft-1.

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