Relatório de ouro e prateado - Dólar de Pequim: quem ama [ainda] Ya, bebê?

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New York spot precious metals dealings opened with relatively small losses on this last day of June, and appeared to be in search of fresh drivers to countervail ebbing interest and participation by speculators and professionals. Market participants were already showing signs of heading out the door early to gear up for the long holiday weekend. Following yesterday's 155-to-138 vote of approval for additional austerity measures in the Greek Parliament, the focus shifts to the second round of voting on the measures.

These follow-up votes are supposed to finally secure the release of the next installment of the 110 billion euro-large rescue package that Greece was granted last year by the EU/IMF duo. Anti-austerity protests appeared to be waning in parts of Athens and market pundits expect the second round of votes to also succeed in passing the belt-tightening programs. In the final analysis however, the dreaded "D"-event was averted by Greece and the EU community is at least temporarily taking easier financial breaths.

The euro rallied in the wake of Wednesday's voting but there is a growing realization on the EU that what might have been accomplished at this juncture is the buying of time and the assurance of declining living standards in Greece for years to come. Speaking of living standards, we note this morning that China has cut taxes for low-level wage earners in an effort to allay the deleterious effects of high inflation levels and in order to secure social stability.

While we do not wish to say that it might be ineffective, redundant, or too little/too late, the tax move by Chinese authorities may actually turn out to be little more than comfort for a certain class of wage earners. There are increasing signs that the country's economy is already cooling, and that the inflation dragon might somehow choke under its own weight after the PBOC set fiscal and monetary tightening measures into motion.

The country's Manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.1 this month; teetering on the halfway pivot-point. Growth in China's money supply has fallen in half on a year-on-year basis, domestic bank loans have fallen 25% and the Shanghai Composite Index has lost 10% since the middle of April. Such patterns have prompted some analysts to project a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Chief among such less-than-enthusiastic China-oriented forecasts is the one the author and economist Gary Shilling has offered up.

As regards the aforementioned projections, certain ultra-bullish gold bugs who expect the flat lining of the US dollar's vital signs to come about any minute now, might take note of the following passage in Mr. Shilling's analysis of China and its massive reserve holdings:

"China also won't be selling its $1 trillion in reserves of U.S. Treasuries in great amounts, as some have feared. The Chinese are well aware that doing so would be disastrous for their economy, because the resulting nosedive in Treasury prices and the dollar would decimate the value of China's remaining holdings of U.S. debt and other assets. A global depression might well ensue, with China and other export-dependent countries as the biggest losers."

As the euro gained in the wake of the Greek lawmakers' voting results, the US dollar gave up some ground and was still off by 0.10 this morning, trading near the 74.50 mark on the trade-weighted index. Following the dissipation of the mini-"europhoria" that we witnessed yesterday, the common currency began to drift a tad lower today but then again, so did the dollar.

The drift to lower levels in the greenback engendered small gains in WTI crude oil (up 30 cents to $95.07 per barrel) and boosted certain base metals a tad. Spot dealings in copper for example, were showing a 0.53% gain this morning as risk appetite made a modest return in the markets. As the week winds down, the appetite for anything beyond BBQ-flavored foods and the accompanying brews, will prove much more difficult to ignite than your average pile of charcoal briquettes. The trade already appears to be looking for July 5 in terms of hoping for "real" market action.

This morning's US Labor Department report showed that only 1,000 fewer claims were filed in the reporting week that ended June 25. The aggregate number came in at 428,000 and it was higher than the anticipated 420,000 claims that economists had projected to be filed on the period. On the other hand, continuing claims fell by 12,000 in the week that ended on June 18 but still underscored difficult progress levels in the American jobs scene.

Spot gold trading opened with a loss of $3.80 per ounce and the bid-side quote was indicated at $1,512.00 in New York. Silver fell 4 cents to start the Thursday session off at the $35.07 per ounce level. Gold and silver were seen correcting their recent slides with yesterday's technical bounces but Elliott Wave analysis continues to expect larger-scale declines in the yellow and the white metal to resume soon and bring prices to significantly lower levels. As things stand right now, gold bullion appears set to conclude a second month of declines (1.5% in June and 1.8% in May) but will likely still notch a quarterly gain (its 11th).

Specifically, the EW team expects gold to possibly target value zones that extend from "well below $1400" to a possible $1,307.80 low. Silver could, in turn, be drawn to lows in the low $20s if the current wave pattern analysis turns out to be correct. Only a rise above the $37.90 level would negate the bearish stance in the market and allow for silver to rise towards $40+ in the process.

For the time being, the white metal remains in what EW labels a "stair-step decline" that has featured lower lows and lower highs since late in May. Silver bullion -by contrast to gold-will likely record a quarterly decline of a much larger order of magnitude (7%) and is heading for its first quarterly loss in ten. This divergence between the white and the yellow metal does not bode well, in the opinion of certain metals' markets watchers.

Platinum and palladium offered little in the way of major price action this morning; the former fell $7 to $1,717.00 and the latter gained $8 to open at the $755.00 level. Rhodium continued steady at the $1925.00 mark per ounce. While general market fundamentals remain supportive in the noble metals' complex, we do need to note that Chinese passenger vehicle sales have only shown a 3% increase in the month of April vis-à-vis one year ago. Last year, that country's car sales roared 33% higher amid strong incentives and a general lift in domestic personal wealth.

As regards the aforementioned positive fundamentals (unlike those visible in gold and in silver) in the PGM complex, it is worth mentioning a few components that have made the rounds in the market press lately. In the lead, we note a recent comment by Impala Platinum CEO David Brown. Mr. Brown opines that growth in the global platinum sector is at risk due to the on-going debate about the possible nationalization of South Africa's mines.

As well, the platinum market faces the threat of the "indigenization" of the industry in Zimbabwe; a subject that is also making the rounds in the industry at present. 80% of the worlds' platinum mines are found in the region that might be affected by such transitions in ownership. For the time being however, our good friends at CPM Group New York are tracking an increase in the supply of the noble metal; its first in three years' time.

CPM noted that there was a 2.1% rise in platinum supplies in 2010; the market saw inflows of 6.47 million ounces of the noble metal from mine production. Supplies of platinum had fallen for three years in a row prior to last year. The total supply of platinum to the market was 7.4 million ounces; that represented a near-5% bump over 2009. CPM expects platinum supplies to rise once again in 2011- probably by about 6%+ or to up to 7.9 million ounces. Meanwhile, total platinum demand is projected to rise to 7.34 million ounces this year, leaving a roughly 600,000-ounce surplus in the marketplace. We will have palladium statistics for you in tomorrow's article. You might wish to visit www.cpmgroup.com for additional details.

Until then,

Jon Nadler
Senior Metals Analyst 
Kitco Metals Inc. North America
US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036

Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

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Relatório de ouro e prateado - "vem do Fedsday"! Em adição, Sci - Fi mais! "

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The largely sideways action continued to be manifest in the precious metals markets for a third session, ahead of the Fed's policy statement and Bernanke press conference due later today. While no one expects momentous action words to be contained in today's Fed language (no imminent rate hikes but also no QE3 are already baked into current anticipations), the parsing of the content will still offer a sufficient amount of material upon which to make a trade of three, as well as related excuses to come later. Greece and the apparently successful vote of confidence in PM Papandreou's government by that country's Parliament were placed on the "simmer" burner for the moment while all eyes and ears turned to the Fed for the day.

Naturally, as has been the case for several previous Fed meetings now, some will interpret the lack of certain QE3-flavored promises as bearish, while others will see the lack of rate hike signals as bullish. Of course, both sides will claim they are correct in their interpretations. Little wonder then that CNBC previewed the day's events by noting that "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to announce a major change in monetary policy at his second-ever news conference later Wednesday, but investors will hang on his every word for clues on whether the Fed will scale back its presence in financial markets."

The midweek trading session in metals in New York opened with a firm...lack of conviction. Spot gold fell $2.20 to open at $1,545.00 the ounce, while silver lost 28 cents to start at $36.12 per ounce. Overnight lows were recorded at $1,540 and at $35.83 respectively. Still, the trading range in the yellow and the white metal was confined to less than $10 and to less than 75 cents ahead of "Fedsday." In the background, the US dollar was also just marking time at 74.74 on the trade-weighted index (up a tiny 0.05%) while crude oil eased by a further half a dollar to trade at $93.61 per barrel.

Platinum and palladium opened mixed-to-unchanged as players in that niche appeared to have headed out the door for an early summer hiatus. The former fell $3 to open at $1,744.00 while the latter gained $1 to start at $766.00 the ounce. No changes were seen in rhodium at $1.950.00 bid this morning. Automaker Daimler posted a robust comeback in 2010 and its executives are optimistic about the firm's prospects for the current year.

The automotive crisis of 2009 (itself an outcome of the 'other' crisis) appears to be fading into history for Daimler at least, if Mercedes sales in China for example, are anything to go by. Potential obstacles to sales growth remain on the scene, in the form of the European debt situation, the soft-patch in the US economic picture and the effects of the Japanese quake in March. As well, the fact that China's epoch of white-hot economic expansion may just possibly be coming to an end, ought to be weighed in making future projections - and not just by the automotive executives of the world.

Economist and author Richard Duncan notes that China has managed to avoid the recession felt elsewhere in the world only by rapidly boosting available credit. Meanwhile, Mr. Duncan projects that China will be singled out by the U.S. and forced to stop growing its trade surplus ... and that will be the death blow to China's era of rapid economic growth." Mr. Duncan sees a Chinese banking sector that is only starting to deal with the aftermath of the easy credit orgy of recent years.

Mr. Duncan is not alone in his assessment; Fitch's Ratings just this morning raised the-redder-than-the-red-flags-in-Red-Square flag on China's banks, warning that some of them might be looking at rather questionable loans on their books. "We are pretty concerned about a big problem with bad debt over the next few years associated with local governments, property and all of the excesses that have been built up since the stimulus of 2008," said one senior official at the rating firm. In the background, trading bets against the yuan have (not so quietly) risen in recent weeks...

Speaking of potentially declining and/or rising currencies, despite the ample dollar-obit talk still sloshing around in the 'system' out there, at least one firm opines that the greenback's prospects look pretty decent as head towards the second half of this year. Morgan Stanley analysts feel that the US currency might trade at $1.36 against the euro and gain lost ground against commodity currencies as well (the Aussie and the loonie).

Morgan Stanley also envisions the US dollar reaching for $1.49 mark against the British pound, as structural issues in the UK dent that currency further. That said, MS is not so sure the dollar can sustain its projected near-term gains into 2012. There's the matter of that pesky "fiscal sinkhole' to consider, still. This is why the Fed keeps warning US lawmakers not to be playing around and dance the politics of the budget.

There are, of course, other politics to also consider from now through 2012...but they are still based mainly on economic conditions. While clearly less than a majority (44%) of Americans says they are worse off under the Obama administration, only 30% of them say they are willing to unequivocally support Mr. Obama's re-election in 2012. The pattern of voter (dis)approval currently being experienced by Mr. Obama harks back to similar difficulties that one Mr. Reagan faced in his early Presidential career. The culprit at that time? You guessed it: a slowing economy.

Those who might be looking at alternatives to Mr. Obama are disappointed that his promises on jobs have not materialized. That said, do not jump to the conclusion that folks are enamored with the GOP or its current crop of would-be Presidents (or President-esses?). Fully 60% of polled Americans feel that any Republican candidate would more so far to the right of right on social and fiscal issues that they will become impossible to support in a Presidential bid.

And now, for something completely...educational. Much ado about nothing has been making the rounds in various gold forums and gold-sci-fi sites. Why, at first blush, any unsuspecting would-be or current gold investor would think that the End had arrived. The "US gumbint forbids gold and silver trading!" Whoa. Not so fast.

Fact: Forex.com, a large retail foreign-exchange operation, on Friday told clients it will discontinue its gold and silver over-the-counter products marketed to retail investors who are U.S. residents. It asked investors to close their positions by July 15.

Fact: After July 15, commodities transactions between retail investors that are leveraged and not delivered in 28 days must be conducted in a "designated contract market," a board of trade or exchange designated by the CFTC, according to the new rules.

Fact: The National Futures Association asked Congress for such changes, due to numerous cases of fraud in such contracts. Doing business with a futures exchange offers retail investors more protections and transparency

Total fiction: "If you had any doubts about how far the elites would go to hurt and break the backs of middle class America, this new law should provide ample evidence that truth reporters are not just making this stuff up. The only possible reason I can see for making it literally "illegal" to trade gold and silver over the counter is that trading in precious metals has been keeping millions of American households financially afloat when just about every hard asset they own, including their home mortgage, is now practically worthless." - source Chase from Alternative News Report

Jon Nadler Senior Metals Analyst 
Kitco Metals Inc. North America
US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036
Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

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Relatório de ouro e prateado - quando "", em seguida, o Sr. Wen? ""

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The US dollar picked up a significant amount of steam on Wednesday and its rise helped push precious metals values back down following their tepid attempt at a gain recorded on Tuesday. The main impetus for the greenback's gains came from the on-going European dawdling on the issue of how to tackle the pesky Greek debt situation. The additional upward driver of the dollar was the lack of notable change being recorded in US inflation levels in the month of May.

At the core of the impasse seen among Europe's various leaders is the idea (pushed by the ECB and France) that private sector involvement in the resolution of the Greek debt crisis would be desirable (which is something that Germany does not quite seem to be cozying up to). The stalemate depressed the euro and the US currency advanced by 0.70 on the trade-weighted index (reaching the 75.17 level by early this morning). As for Greece, the domestic situation only aggravated this morning as that country's third and largest general strike brought thousands into the streets in protest of additional austerity plans. Clashes between striking workers and police forces were reported in Athens.

Violent encounters between ordinary folks and police were not confined to Greece however. Reports indicate that "scary" riots in China's Guangzhou area have put leaders of that country on-edge as they came on the heels of several weeks' worth of intensification of such unrest. Chinese society currently witnesses untold numbers of protests and riots each year as the ire over government corruption and social inequality appears to be boiling at a disturbingly high level.

Yesterday's higher-than-anticipated reading of China's inflation levels (edging ever closer to 6%) only adds fuel to the fires of Chinese discontent and has shown that perhaps Premier Wen's three-month pause in raising interest rates (following four such hikes since last September) was a gamble that went sour at this point. The markets are all but ruling out an extension of this hiatus by the Chinese government in raising interest rates (it did raise bank margin requirements on Monday) now that inflation temperature readings are about as uncomfortable as the readings being recorded in the social mood temperature in that country.

Speaking of inflation, the US Fed's efforts to stimulate economic growth while reducing joblessness levels and at the same time averting an increase in inflation to dangerous levels appears to be not only on track (despite way too many vocal critics' assertions) and could pick up speed in coming months. This, as there is now quasi-official talk that the US central bank might set an explicit inflation target and then go about carrying out policy that results in its' execution and sustainment.

Inflation targeting has long been an effective policy practiced by several central banks around the world- Canada's and New Zealand's among them. Mr. Bernanke and several Fed Presidents have in fact recently argued that such targeting might very well bolster the Fed's credibility as well as finally silence the crowd that alleges the "imminence of hyperinflation" and the corresponding "death of the US dollar" in the US.

We have pointed to the benefits of so-called "desirable levels of inflation" concept that is taking hold among central banks numerous times in these columns and noted that is was first visible as a concept in Japan, circa 2003. Japan, up to this point anyway, has not quite succeeded in lifting inflation to the BOJ's "desirable" target but observers feel that the Fed could succeed not only in approaching an as-yet-to-be-set inflation target but also maintain an orbit around it.

While on the subject of the Fed, we must also note that Chairman Bernanke has once again warned US lawmakers not to play with the debt ceiling hand-grenade since the pin has already been pulled and time is running out on options. Mr. Bernanke reminded Congress that not raising the US' debt limit could have an extremely damaging effect on the country's economy. August 2 now looms as the deadline by which the US government could arrive to a point where it might not be able to pay its bills. Meanwhile, Messrs. Boehner (Speaker of the House) and Reid (Senate majority leader) continue their WWF-like display of posturing and politicizing the issue.

The gunfight of words at the "Not-So-O.K. Capitol Hill" has now lasted far more than the 30-second allotted time needed to decide what gets cuts and which party gives up what sacred cow. Mr. Bernanke cannot tell the folks what to do (while they tell him what to do quite often) but at east he (and Treasury Secretary Geithner) can show them the path that leads off the debt cliff.

Stay tuned, but do note that (as has been suggested here previously) some $1 trillion in US tax increases is likely to be "baked into" the currently being worked-upon bi-partisan budget compromise plan being cobbled together in Washington. Prediction: the US debit limit will be raised, and so will taxes. Prediction: some entitlement programs will invariably be "trimmed." Prediction: each side (the GOP as well as the Dems) will claim "complete victory."

And now, on to the markets we track in these posts daily: spot gold dealings opened the midweek trading session in New York with a loss of $10 per ounce and it was quoted at $1,514.10 on the bid-side. Half a dollar's worth of losses were recorded in silver at opening time, as the white metal was touching the $34.89 mark on the bid-side. In the background, crude oil was struggling near the $98.50 area, losing nearly an additional dollar this morning. The Dow futures action pointed to possible triple-digit losses to come in the equity market this morning. As it turned out, the Dow opened at 11,976 with a...99-point decline.

Platinum fell by $14 to reach $1,780.00 per ounce and palladium lost $9 to touch the $782.00 mark as the on-going correction in the platinum-group metals complex unfolded. Rhodium did not show a change this morning; it was still quoted at $1,850.00 the troy ounce following its recent dip that obviated last week's sizeable gains.

The initial market trend in gold and in silver quickly reversed however following the release of statistics related to the New York area's manufacturing activity for June. The so-called Empire State index actually fell to below the zero level (-7.8) this month, from a positive 11.9 recorded last month. Polled economists had actually expected an improvement in the index to perhaps as high a level as 13 or more.

The divergence in actual versus expected readings in the aforementioned index was therefore quite sizeable and immediately raised questions as to the nature of the "soft-patch" that the US economy is reportedly experiencing momentarily. Commodity speculators were quick to jump on the news and they gave us yet another splendid intra-day display of "See this? The Fed MUST give us a QE3!" Spot gold traded as high as $1,535 following the news while silver quickly bounced to as high a level as the $35.80 mark per ounce.

There was much more hefty money to be made out there today, however. Take Pandora, for instance; many did. Its shares leaped 40% (!) higher after the IPO hit the deck on Wall Street this morning. Insta-wealth for some. Cries of "overvaluation" by others. The streaming media firm's initial public offering was priced at $16 last night. You could have sold your shares at as high a level as $22.41 within minutes of today's inaugural trading of same. Hello! This Pandora's box -now open (for trading anyway)- is a somewhat...different one than the "old" one, some say.

Until tomorrow, stay...tuned.

Jon Nadler
Senior Metals Market Analyst 
Kitco Metals Inc. North America
US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036
Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

View the original article here

Relatório de ouro e prateado - quando "", em seguida, o Sr. Wen? ""

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The US dollar picked up a significant amount of steam on Wednesday and its rise helped push precious metals values back down following their tepid attempt at a gain recorded on Tuesday. The main impetus for the greenback's gains came from the on-going European dawdling on the issue of how to tackle the pesky Greek debt situation. The additional upward driver of the dollar was the lack of notable change being recorded in US inflation levels in the month of May.

At the core of the impasse seen among Europe's various leaders is the idea (pushed by the ECB and France) that private sector involvement in the resolution of the Greek debt crisis would be desirable (which is something that Germany does not quite seem to be cozying up to). The stalemate depressed the euro and the US currency advanced by 0.70 on the trade-weighted index (reaching the 75.17 level by early this morning). As for Greece, the domestic situation only aggravated this morning as that country's third and largest general strike brought thousands into the streets in protest of additional austerity plans. Clashes between striking workers and police forces were reported in Athens.

Violent encounters between ordinary folks and police were not confined to Greece however. Reports indicate that "scary" riots in China's Guangzhou area have put leaders of that country on-edge as they came on the heels of several weeks' worth of intensification of such unrest. Chinese society currently witnesses untold numbers of protests and riots each year as the ire over government corruption and social inequality appears to be boiling at a disturbingly high level.

Yesterday's higher-than-anticipated reading of China's inflation levels (edging ever closer to 6%) only adds fuel to the fires of Chinese discontent and has shown that perhaps Premier Wen's three-month pause in raising interest rates (following four such hikes since last September) was a gamble that went sour at this point. The markets are all but ruling out an extension of this hiatus by the Chinese government in raising interest rates (it did raise bank margin requirements on Monday) now that inflation temperature readings are about as uncomfortable as the readings being recorded in the social mood temperature in that country.

Speaking of inflation, the US Fed's efforts to stimulate economic growth while reducing joblessness levels and at the same time averting an increase in inflation to dangerous levels appears to be not only on track (despite way too many vocal critics' assertions) and could pick up speed in coming months. This, as there is now quasi-official talk that the US central bank might set an explicit inflation target and then go about carrying out policy that results in its' execution and sustainment.

Inflation targeting has long been an effective policy practiced by several central banks around the world- Canada's and New Zealand's among them. Mr. Bernanke and several Fed Presidents have in fact recently argued that such targeting might very well bolster the Fed's credibility as well as finally silence the crowd that alleges the "imminence of hyperinflation" and the corresponding "death of the US dollar" in the US.

We have pointed to the benefits of so-called "desirable levels of inflation" concept that is taking hold among central banks numerous times in these columns and noted that is was first visible as a concept in Japan, circa 2003. Japan, up to this point anyway, has not quite succeeded in lifting inflation to the BOJ's "desirable" target but observers feel that the Fed could succeed not only in approaching an as-yet-to-be-set inflation target but also maintain an orbit around it.

While on the subject of the Fed, we must also note that Chairman Bernanke has once again warned US lawmakers not to play with the debt ceiling hand-grenade since the pin has already been pulled and time is running out on options. Mr. Bernanke reminded Congress that not raising the US' debt limit could have an extremely damaging effect on the country's economy. August 2 now looms as the deadline by which the US government could arrive to a point where it might not be able to pay its bills. Meanwhile, Messrs. Boehner (Speaker of the House) and Reid (Senate majority leader) continue their WWF-like display of posturing and politicizing the issue.

The gunfight of words at the "Not-So-O.K. Capitol Hill" has now lasted far more than the 30-second allotted time needed to decide what gets cuts and which party gives up what sacred cow. Mr. Bernanke cannot tell the folks what to do (while they tell him what to do quite often) but at east he (and Treasury Secretary Geithner) can show them the path that leads off the debt cliff.

Stay tuned, but do note that (as has been suggested here previously) some $1 trillion in US tax increases is likely to be "baked into" the currently being worked-upon bi-partisan budget compromise plan being cobbled together in Washington. Prediction: the US debit limit will be raised, and so will taxes. Prediction: some entitlement programs will invariably be "trimmed." Prediction: each side (the GOP as well as the Dems) will claim "complete victory."

And now, on to the markets we track in these posts daily: spot gold dealings opened the midweek trading session in New York with a loss of $10 per ounce and it was quoted at $1,514.10 on the bid-side. Half a dollar's worth of losses were recorded in silver at opening time, as the white metal was touching the $34.89 mark on the bid-side. In the background, crude oil was struggling near the $98.50 area, losing nearly an additional dollar this morning. The Dow futures action pointed to possible triple-digit losses to come in the equity market this morning. As it turned out, the Dow opened at 11,976 with a...99-point decline.

Platinum fell by $14 to reach $1,780.00 per ounce and palladium lost $9 to touch the $782.00 mark as the on-going correction in the platinum-group metals complex unfolded. Rhodium did not show a change this morning; it was still quoted at $1,850.00 the troy ounce following its recent dip that obviated last week's sizeable gains.

The initial market trend in gold and in silver quickly reversed however following the release of statistics related to the New York area's manufacturing activity for June. The so-called Empire State index actually fell to below the zero level (-7.8) this month, from a positive 11.9 recorded last month. Polled economists had actually expected an improvement in the index to perhaps as high a level as 13 or more.

The divergence in actual versus expected readings in the aforementioned index was therefore quite sizeable and immediately raised questions as to the nature of the "soft-patch" that the US economy is reportedly experiencing momentarily. Commodity speculators were quick to jump on the news and they gave us yet another splendid intra-day display of "See this? The Fed MUST give us a QE3!" Spot gold traded as high as $1,535 following the news while silver quickly bounced to as high a level as the $35.80 mark per ounce.

There was much more hefty money to be made out there today, however. Take Pandora, for instance; many did. Its shares leaped 40% (!) higher after the IPO hit the deck on Wall Street this morning. Insta-wealth for some. Cries of "overvaluation" by others. The streaming media firm's initial public offering was priced at $16 last night. You could have sold your shares at as high a level as $22.41 within minutes of today's inaugural trading of same. Hello! This Pandora's box -now open (for trading anyway)- is a somewhat...different one than the "old" one, some say.

Until tomorrow, stay...tuned.

Jon Nadler
Senior Metals Market Analyst 
Kitco Metals Inc. North America
US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036
Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

View the original article here

Prateado os metais preciosos técnicos (2011-06-13)

Semanalmente um relatório - 17 13/06 / 06 / 2011

Retorno para o Conde Elliott proposto anteriormente, o preço se move para baixo confirmando onda onda (c) ZZ. Portanto, mais bearishness poderia considerar como comércio permanece abaixo de Constituição; em seguida, 38.90 protege o bearishness. Indicadores de Momentum refletem um caso de exagerado e que pode causar flutuações, mas não acreditamos que a direção será modificada.

O intervalo comercial para esta semana é um apoio crítico a resistência 31.25 e chave agora 38.90.

A tendência geral de curto prazo é o direcionamento inconveniente 26.65 como 48. 50 áreas permanecem intactas com fechamento downloads.

Relatório anterior com base em gráficos e explicações acima nossa opinião é, vendas de dinheiro para o 36.35 progressivamente direcionamento 35.35,34.85 e 33.90, enquanto o stop loss é uma diária de fechamento sobre Constituição pode ser apropriada.

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Prateado os metais preciosos técnicos (2011-06-08)

O relatório de manhã

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Mais uma vez, o dinheiro não poderia estabilizar sobre quebrado apoio anterior encoraja-na manter nossas previsões negativas intraday base suportada por Earl Elliott propôs visível na imagem onde nós estão formando a onda (c) formação ZZ. Estocásticos retornado abaixo 50,00 como RSI, apoiar o cenário negativo. Uma quatro horas de fechamento abaixo 36.35 reforçará a nossa visão.

O intervalo comercial de hoje é o suporte a resistência 34,00 e chave agora 38.90.

A tendência a curto prazo é para baixo, direcionamento 26.65 como 48. 50 áreas permanecem intactas com fechamento downloads.

Relatório anterior

Relatório semanal com base em gráficos e explicações acima nosso aviso é, vendas de dinheiro around 37,00 direcionamento progressivamente 35.65,34.80 e 33.90, enquanto o stop loss é uma diária de fechamento acima 38,00 pode ser apropriada.

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Prateado os metais preciosos técnicos (2011-06-07)

O relatório de manhã

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Depois de tocar o apoio quebrado anterior ativado na resistência - canal correcional, que organizou a onda (b), o metal começou a mover-se para os níveis baixos de sub do 36.35. Estes comportamentos de preço dar mais confirmações que ZZ correção está em andamento. Por isso, sugerimos movimento desvantagem potencial base intraday.

O intervalo comercial de hoje é o suporte a resistência 34,00 e chave agora 38.90.

A tendência a curto prazo é para baixo, direcionamento 26.65 como 48. 50 áreas permanecem intactas com fechamento downloads.

Relatório semanal anterior

Ponto de vista diferente if38. 38-40 90 são violados com base em gráficos e explicações acima é nossa opinião, venda de dinheiro around 37,00 direcionamento progressivamente 35.65,34.80 e 33.90, enquanto o stop loss é uma diária de fechamento acima 38,00 pode ser apropriada.

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Relatório de ouro e prateado - "e agora para algo completamente diferente". "Mais do mesmo"

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The trading action at opening time in New York this morning was dominated by nervousness in the wake of the large decline in the Dow on Wednesday. That drop was, in turn, precipitated by the poor showings in the ISM's manufacturing and the ADP's private payrolls figures. Global benchmark indices fell to one-week lows yesterday as apprehensions that the global economic recovery is struggling through an unexpected (by many) "air pocket."

Despite certain economists' assertions that this phenomenon is but a "run-of-the-mill, mid-cycle breather," investors remain spooked by the prospects of yet another serious global economic contraction. The "risk-on" trade morphed into "no risk, thanks" faster than the negative headlines were being bolded on Wednesday. When the "risk-off" leaning becomes the comforting attitude to adopt, there is normally one beleaguered asset that tends to benefit from the shift; the good old greenback.

Markewatch's Jim Lowell sums it up as follows: "When Calamity Jane comes to town, I don't think there's a better bet than the greenback. Say what you will, the technical trading charts suggest that what pulls the dollar's trigger best is a marketplace shoot 'em up that leaves all customers looking for a table to dive under. I have been a longstanding dollar bull, which is a kind way of saying I have been poked in the eye more than once by that call." Join the poked-eye club, Mr. Lowell. Someone here is a "member emeritus" of it.

Thus, and quite understandably, the metals' trade (as well as a host of other speculators) was keenly focused on the day's release of US initial jobless claims numbers as well as tomorrow's overall US employment statistics courtesy of the Labor Department. Fortunately for certain markets at least, the level of unemployment claims filing did manage a small (but smaller than hoped-for) decline (to 422,000 for the latest reporting week) while the four-week average of such filings dropped by 14,000 to its lowest level in more than a month; it ran at the 425,500 level.

The Labor Department's fresh data did not initially appear to help the US dollar too much (it remained 0.45 lower, at 74.36 on the trade-weighted index) but the consensus was that the euro's momentary strength was more of an impact factor at this juncture. The common currency received an additional psychological lift in the wake of a tough-talking Mr. Trichet this morning. The ECB President's call to "arms" included urgings for significantly tougher fiscal interventions to take place in the eurozone as well as for the advent of a central finance ministry intended to look after Europe's fiscal issues.

At this point, such an agency would immediately be given quite a "to-do list" to be sure. Just last night, Moody's Investor Services reshuffled the alphabet soup lettering related to Greece's sovereign rating to Caa1 from B1 and also assigned it a "negative" outlook. Moody's concluded the game of ratings Scrabble with the caveat that Greece's present "risks imply at least an even chance of default over the rating horizon."

The souring set of US economic statistical data that hit the market this week (and quite literally the Dow on Wednesday) immediately raised the choir of "QE3! QE3!" chants to decibel levels last heard in October of 2010 when the "3" digit was still a "2" appended to the "QE." Strategist Neil McKinnon at VTB Capital however, feels that "there are sufficient political headwinds to prevent a move to QE3, though I think the Fed has little choice but to proceed cautiously and normalize policy very gradually, in order to avoid unwanted volatility in markets."

On the other hand, Marketwatch's David Callaway advises investor folk not to "hold their breath" as QE3 has...sailed away already. Mr. Callaway spells it out quite bluntly: "Investors would be wrong to hope Bernanke will ride to the rescue again with a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, by buying Treasury bonds in bulk. Of course, the Fed will keep buying in some format, but the massive program itself will end this month and we'll be on our own...The increased volatility will also help arrest declines in the dollar, particularly if Europe plays its usual role this summer of scaring investors about Greece and a possible collapse of the euro. That's not great for commodities, particularly gold. But it might help prevent the gold brigade from driving prices too high too fast."

Against this background of mixed, lukewarm-to-not-so-hot global financial news, the metals markets opened with slightly indecisive steps this morning in New York. Spot gold traded virtually unchanged at $1,539.00 the ounce as the dollar narrowed its losses after the Labor Department report and Dow futures showed signs of trending higher. Crude oil remained fairly static but was scraping along just pennies from the century mark, which it still appeared to threaten to breach.

Spot silver fell four cents to open neat the $36.78 bid-side level following yesterday's late afternoon swoon that was shaping up to remove nearly $2 from its value in what has now become an almost commonplace event; intra-day mega-swings that would have stopped speculative hearts just a year or two ago. It was relatively easy to divine why silver fell out of bed in the wake of the somewhat alarming US manufacturing activity figures.

As we reported in yesterday's article, slowdowns of variable proportions in the economies of Australia, China, India, and in the eurozone appear be shaping up at this juncture. Platinum gained $2 to open at $1,821.00 while palladium showed an equal rise to reach $771.00 the ounce. As was largely expected, the sales figures for US auto sales for last month were definitely not worth sending postcards home about.

Toyota Motor led the decline in the amount of iron that was moved off dealer lots in the USA. Its sales fell by a whopping 33% on the month. In part, the fact that there wasn't much out there on those lots to offer for sale, contributed to the dismal statistics. High has prices (averaging $3.90/gal.) did not help matters either for would-be US auto shoppers.

However, South Korea's rising auto-star, Kia Motors, bucked the trend and chalked up a 53% spike in US deliveries. Its new Optima sedan apparently fit the bill quite nicely for many a US buyer unable to get a hold of a Prius or a Camry. May's situation is however seen as the nadir for Japan's auto sales in the US in the wake of the Sendai quake. Rebounds are almost certain to come as the summer wears on and fall's new models begin to roll into showrooms.

Finally today, back to Fed-related talk. Make that, Fed-originated talk. Plus, a bit of myth-busting 101 while on the topic, as well.

The US central bank's San Francisco-arm President John Williams (replacing Janet Yellen) spoke to a group of educators yesterday. He "educated" them on the fact that -contrary to 99.99% of popular perception- the massive expansion on bank reserves is "very unlikely to create an inflation problem down the road." While some might call this "pure fantasy" and continue to expect the materialization of Harare-on-the-Hudson inflation scenarios, Mr. Williams did explain the mystery to his audience of professionals.

It is most valuable to note that Mr. Williams' assertions are based on facts and figures that utterly demolish recently heard Armageddon-ish arguments from the hyperinflation camps. "A lot of the anxiety in response Fed policies is misplaced. Despite all the headlines proclaiming that the Fed is printing huge amounts of money" one of the broader measures of the nation's money stock, referred to as M2, "has grown at a 5 1/2% annual rate on average. That's only slightly above the 5% growth rate of the preceding 20 years."

Mr. Williams remarked that "much of the textbook understanding of money creation and central banking is no longer operative." Most significantly, he noted that we live "in a world where the Fed pays interest on bank reserves, traditional theories that tell of a mechanical link between reserves, money supply and ultimately inflation no longer hold." In other words, the "lethal weapon" that paying interest on reserves represents - a relatively new power for the Fed- is so effective that it allows the Fed to exercise a degree of control over such reserves that is far higher than common wisdom perceives.

At the end of the day, that tool, combined with an eventual tightening of monetary policy will ensure that a) reserves do not "flow" into the economy creating inflationary pressures beyond desirable targets and b) that inflation- to whatever extent it does materialize- will not be Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe- like in nature. Not by a long-shot.

Until tomorrow, the world orbits around the same old themes: the dollar, the Fed, the economy, and -most of all- expectations (right or wrong). Plus ca change.....

Jon Nadler

Senior Metals Analyst 

Kitco Metals Inc. North America

US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036

Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

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Prateado os metais preciosos técnicos (2011-06-03)

O relatório de manhã

Clique na imagem para ampliar

A linha de apoio importante e 23,6% em 36.354 foram violados. Esta descoberta confirma nossas sugestões Swale targeting 34.80 no caso de uma ruptura que trará bearishness adicionais. Parece que, se quisermos formação TZ, mas ainda não confirma. Momentum indicadores mostram sinais de exagerado, mas não nos parece que vai mudar o cenário.

O intervalo comercial de hoje está entre a resistência essencial capilares e chave de apoiar agora 38,00.

A tendência a curto prazo é para baixo, direcionamento 26.65 como 48. 50 áreas permanecem intactas com fechamento downloads.

Relatório anterior

Relatório semanal com base em gráficos e explicações acima nosso aviso é, vendas de dinheiro para o 36.35 progressivamente direcionamento 35.65,34.80 e 33.90, enquanto o stop loss é uma diária fechar acima de 37.45 pode ser apropriada.

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Relatório de ouro e prateado - "E pluribus unum".

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The first trading day of June got off to a bit of a wobbly start in commodities as investors awaited US economic and employment data before making any large-scale bets in the complex. Overnight news from the global economic front was not all that auspicious for speculators to augment their level of betting on the long-side in precious metals.

All of this was taking place even as the US dollar remained locked under the 74.5 level on the trade-weighted index and crude oil still hovered at the $102.50 per barrel mark, apparently unwilling to get going into either direction from that price-point. Most hedge funds lost money in May amid the wacky volatility on display in many a market. Commodity-focused funds took some real hits on the chin as a result of the gyrations in various metals and agriculturals. They will have to pedal that much harder this month. If only the global economy would cooperate, darn it.

There is something of a soft-patch being detected out there in the global economy these days. For example, the hitherto seemingly invincible Aussie economy saw its GDP contract by the most in two decades in the first quarter of this year. The devastating floods in Queensland took their toll on the country's output pushing the national GDP down by 1.2% while exports fell by nearly 9%.

The fact that China's manufacturing activity grew at the slowest rate in nine months last month certainly did not help matters for the Land Down Under. China, India, and Japan's demand constitute more than half of Australia's exports. All three trading partners showed weak or weaker than anticipated growth during various months of the year-to-date.

China is also still grappling with its pesky inflation bogey. Economists suggest that Premier Wen's anti-inflation combat may well have received a small dose of "encouragement" from the figures related to the country's manufacturing slowdown, but that the decline was mild enough to leave room for yet another interest rate hike by the PBOC (its fifth since last October) to take place, perhaps as early as this coming weekend.

India's economic growth rate also slowed during Q1 of 2011 while inflation continued to present an annoyance even after nine hikes in key interest rates by the RBI. The combination of such trends underway in China and in India has raised the levels of caution among commodity bulls whose on-going profitability in speculating has largely been predicated on levels of "Chindian" growth that were formerly the "norm."

Over in Europe, the 17-nation euro area showed a fall in its gauge of manufacturing activity in May. While the reading came in at 54.6 (versus 58 in April) and it still indicates "growth" the fact that there is a slowing has raised nervousness levels among investors. Stocks in Frankfurt fell on the news.

As things stood this morning, the ISM figures for the US' own manufacturing activity levels were also expected to point towards a slowing in economic growth. Median estimates placed the ISM's numbers at around the 57 level (down from over 60 in April). Most of the slowdown will be chalked up to the ripple-effects of the March Japanese quake and the dip is expected to be transitory and not result in a Fed panic of some type.

Spot gold dealings opened with at $0.40 per ounce rise and were quoted at $1,534.70 the ounce following another overnight session of range-trading that was as exciting as watching a knitting contest in the Pyrenees. The yellow metal turned away from the $1,540.00 resistance area for the second time in one week and appeared to be looking for a source (any source) of news that might embolden the bulls into a third attempt towards the mid-$1,500 value zone. Thus far, no news of such an ilk was present. Yesterday, gold was the lone decliner in the precious metals' complex.

Silver dropped about half-a-dollar on the open, showing a bid-side quote of $38.05 per ounce, as it too appeared to back slowly away from the strong barrier that the $39.00 level has presented up to this point. Platinum and palladium opened with mixed results for the midweek session; the former fell $1 after quite a flight on Tuesday, while the latter rose $2 seemingly still energized by yesterday's deficit projections.

Rhodium paused at the $2,300 mark following a hefty pop in prices on the last day of May. In the background, the US dollar was marking time in and around the 74.50 level ahead of the ADP employment and the ISM's manufacturing data. Automotive analysts are looking for car sales data from other regions to keep supporting the PGM complex in the wake of news that China's car sales did in fact drop by 11% in April, following the expiration of government car-purchasing-oriented stimulus programs.

The private payrolls number did not lift trading spirits (at least for equities players) as it gained only a skinny number in May: 38,000 positions. Economists had expected more like 175,000 jobs to have been added to the US economy's payrolls in the month just passed. The ISM data, due later this morning, along with light vehicle sales figures and construction spending figures for the month of April might shed some additional light on the current temperature of the US economy. As things stand right now, and based on certain recent readings of said thermometer, the school of thought that sports the "QE3" banner above its "frat house" remains in relatively good spirits.

Actually, it smells more like open warfare in QE3-related prediction-land, these days. Citigroup, for one, notes that "markets are bracing for QE3" in a fashion most reminiscent of when they were pricing in QE2 last fall. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase asserts that the Fed is "very, very unlikely to launch another round of asset purchases."

JPM Chase feels that the potential political fallout (of the worst kind) that would follow the announcement of any such stimulus would make last fall's display of anger aimed at the Fed on Capitol Hill seem like a 1967-vintage love-in. Not only a lawmakers spooked by the rising spectre of inflation but the approaching date of the US debt limit's ceiling will have most of them turn reluctant to sanction such further monetary largesse. As Fed policy has gone, so has the greenback, that's an open & shut case.

Don't look now, but the detestable dollar turned in a stock-and-commodity-beating performance last month. The US currency's first monthly gain since the implementation of QE2 was the result of not only bettors scaling back on their expectations of additional decline in its value, but also the outcome of the turmoil that has once again affected the euro and the emergent signs that a mid-cycle slowdown is possibly underway in the global economy. The net result was a 2.2% climb in the greenback, to be computed against the 2.45% loss in the index of world equities (MXWO) and a 6.9% decline in the GSCI commodity index.

In the interim, the very thing that has helped gold climb on safe-haven bids during the past couple of weeks -the second act of the Greek debt tragedy- now appears to be the factor that is tempering its attempts at advancing past the $1,540 mark. The closer speculators feel that the EU is drawing to a resolution of some kind to the reignited crisis, the less they are apparently willing to remain over-weighted in the currency/commodity, at least for the time being.

Exactly how the situation will be resolved remains to be ascertained; however, by the end of this month, the eurozone's leaders will have made a decision on the what/how/how much and when of the Greek aid package. The EU is certainly not expected to let the country slowly sink into the Aegean Sea following the Santorini-like debt event that exploded last spring.

What does one do in the event of someone (the EU, the IMF, the ECB, or the Greek government) dropping the bailout "ball" and inadvertently squashing the euro in the process? Well, you guessed it. Buy...the "other" currency. The one with George Washington's smiling countenance on it. The original GW may not have much to smile about, fundamentally, but, in this case, "one [currency] from many [others that have bigger problems]" applies rather well in terms of possible choices, anyway.

Until tomorrow,

Jon Nadler

Senior Metals Analyst 

Kitco Metals Inc. North America

US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036

Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

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Prateado os metais preciosos técnicos (2011-05-31)

O relatório de meio-dia

Clique na imagem para ampliar

Prata subiu, mas ainda não tem faltava zones-38.2% 38. 90 de uma onda visível na imagem. Tanto quanto o comércio continua entre 38 90-36. 35 neutralidade será de esperar por um técnico a emergir padrão ou movendo-se acima dos níveis.

O intervalo comercial de hoje está entre a resistência essencial 35.85 e chave de apoiar agora 40.90.

A tendência a curto prazo é para baixo, direcionamento 26.65 como 48. 50 áreas permanecem intactas com fechamento downloads.

O relatório de manhã

Relatório semanal com base em gráficos e explicações acima nosso aviso é, ficar de lado até que apareça um sinal mais claro localizar a próxima passagem.

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Relatório de ouro e prateado - "Back on the roller coaster"

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A larger than nine percent reversal in the price of silver overnight helped drag the entire precious metals complex to lower price ground as the new trading day dawned on Thursday. Proving once again that it is little more than investment nitroglycerine, the white metal turned away from the high of $39.01 seen just hours prior to the start of trading this morning and fell to lows just above the $36.00 mark as sellers made an aggressive exit from the niche and likely took some sizeable profits in the process.

For the moment, the previously apparent push towards the upper end of the $39 - $42 zone appears to have failed at the bottom end of that range and brings into question what might come next for the metal. At any rate, the leakage just this week of some 280 metric tonnes of silver from the ETFs that use it for their backing has helped bring the total tally of the current year's losses in such balances to 1,331 metric tonnes. Not exactly the type of pattern that makes for a sustainable period of price strength in silver.

Thursday's opening bell in New York saw gold declining by about $7.00 per ounce to start at just under the $1,520.00 level despite a sizeable easing in the US dollar (off 0.40) on the trade-weighted index, and despite a still-resilient crude oil (down only three pennies at $101.29 pbbl). Silver fell 86 cents (2.27%) while players were seen trying to halt its slide with less than successful efforts. However, losses in both the yellow and the white metal were pared somewhat following the worse than-anticipated figures on the US jobless claims and GDP fronts. The disappointing figures added to selling pressure in the US dollar within the first half-hour of trading action and this helped the precious metals recover somewhat.

Speaking of the greenback, just when PIMCO has sounded the alarm on the US currency, Boston-based Fidelity Investments ($1.46 trillion under management) opines that "the value of the dollar is close to a bottom." In fact, the firm's manager of the Fidelity New Markets Income Fund, John Carlson wrote in a report on their website that he has "never been more optimistic on the long-term prospects of the US dollar and the US economy." The dollar has lost 13% over the past year even after it gained 3% since May the 4th. The battle of Carlson versus Gross bears watching, folks. Much money under management is at stake.

Thus, and not to be discounted still, for the remainder of the session, would be larger-than-"normal" (whatever "normal" might be for silver anymore) moves in either direction. Whether or not gold also begins to exhibit a trend towards having clearly turned away from attempts to penetrate into the $1,530 - $1,545 zone will define some of what could take place in silver, but, at this juncture, one could say that it is rather the latter that is "calling the shots" in the precious metals' space. Players will be looking out for options expiries and the emergence of pre-long-weekend book-squaring rituals which some label as the "get-me-out-before-the-weekend syndrome."

Platinum dropped $12 on the open while palladium eased by $4. The former was quoted at $1,769.00 while the latter showed a bid indication at $746.00 the ounce. Rhodium was unchanged after having bounced back by $30 to the $1,910.00 per ounce bid-side quote. Picking up on yesterday's theme of deteriorating fundamentals in the noble metals' niche, traders at Japan's metals giant Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K. projected that the losses in auto production in the wake of their country's worst ever temblor might result in a surplus of platinum of as much as five metric tonnes this year.

That tonnage of higher supply than demand compares unfavorably with last year's overhang of only 600 kilograms for the noble metal. Such a ballooning in supply could impact the hitherto robust price advances in the metal on the charts. Platinum has gained 18 percent in 2010 and palladium vaulted 71% higher. Japan still represents a source of demand as high as 15% of the total global tally in platinum. As a result of the recent developments in Japan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (the most accurate forecaster for platinum over the past two years) has scaled back its average annual price forecast for platinum to $1,838.00 from the $2,000 level for the current year.

On the other hand, palladium could still remain in a deficit situation this year, despite the fall-off in Japanese autocatalyst-related demand. Albeit this year's shortage might only amount to perhaps seven or eight metric tonnes as compared to last year's more than fifteen tonne deficit, the market's overall balance still offers some support for prices in the nearby lower price channels on the charts. If Chinese jewellery demand, ETF acquisitions were not slowing and if Russia did not come to market with the roughly one million ounces of the metal with which it did in 2010, the situation might be a tad different. We noted yesterday that palladium-based ETFs have seen a leakage in balances of about 42,000 ounces in the current year.

Some of that situation was apparently reversed during the month of April. Analysts at StandardBank (SA) noted that Chinese palladium demand improved last month, as the country imported 22,923 ounces of the metal -some 5,000 more than it had in March. To be fair, there is a huge divergence in what Swiss customs versus Chinese customs data reports are for such exports/imports. In fact, Chinese customs figures show a 44% decline in month-on-month imports for palladium.

Over in the US, palladium demand also appears to have ameliorated last month with net imports of 124,880 ounces of the metal. Some 24,228 ounces were possibly added to ETF holdings and that may have reversed the aforementioned shrinking trend for such balances in the current year somewhat. Thus, the StandardBank team envisions decent support for platinum and for palladium at the price zones that are found near the $1,700 and $700 levels respectively, while still targeting $1,900 and $950 for possible peaks later in the year for the duo.

While we are on the topic of production and demand for metals, it is worth mentioning that South Africa's highest court has ruled that former mine workers can seek damages from companied where they worked under the previous apartheid-era's conditions. Estimates are that mining firms might face as much as $100 billion is claims from such affected workers (whose lungs have been severely damaged by the dust found in South Africa's mines).

While some expect settlements in such cases to tally far less than the $100 estimated by RBC Capital Markets in London, the executives as AngloGold and Harmony have thus far either said that they have made no provisions for such damage claims or that they feel it is too early to determine the very issue of liability. Negligence on the part of the firms would have to be proven in some cases, but the recent ruling evidently "opens the floodgates" for damage claims by perhaps as many as 300,000 claimants who once worked deep in the bowels of the country's mines to bring precious metals to the light of day.

Some have claimed that the mining firms were fully aware of the risks of silicosis (the lung condition that results from exposure to underground dust) and that it was preventable, yet they skipped the expenses of providing additional underground ventilation to the workers whom they treated as "a commodity" -according to one of the claimant's lawyers. RBC analyst Leon Esterhuizen concludes that the "million-dollar question is how big the settlement will be." Make that the billion-dollar question, perhaps.

We close today with a reminder to visit the splendid www.golbarsworldwide.com website where the latest addition of images showcases bars from China's ICBC, and the CombiBar (made by Switzerland's renowned Valcambi) -an innovative 50-gram unit that offers the option to "detach" up to 50 pieces of 1-gram sub-units to the owner. Quite a concept, that.

Until tomorrow,

Jon Nadler
Senior Metals Analyst 
Kitco Metals Inc. North America
US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036
Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn                     Blog: http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler

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