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DJ USDA Report: Summary For June Production, Supply And Demand CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following table is provided as a service to DowJones Newswires subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department ofAgriculture's June production, supply and demand reports. U.S. estimates are in billions of bushels except soyoil, which is inbillions of pounds. Soymeal is in short tons. Cotton is in millions of480-pound bales. Rice is in million hundredweight. World crop forecasts are inmillions of metric tons. Numbers are rounded to nearest thousand. USDA U.S. Wheat Production Thursday May 2010 2011-12 Average Range USDA Production EstimateAll Wheat 2.058 1.982 1.905-2.058 2.043 2.208All Winter 1.450 1.395 1.337-1.427 1.424 1.485Hard Red Winter 0.777 0.741 0.690-0.777 0.762 1.018Soft Red Winter 0.434 0.416 0.390-0.440 0.427 0.238White Winter 0.240 0.234 0.225-0.242 0.235 0.229 USDA U.S. Grain, Cotton Carryout Thursday 2011-12 May 2010-11 May 2011-12 analyst 2011-12 Analyst 2010-11 Estimated estimate USDA estimate USDA Soybeans 0.190 0.165 0.160 0.173 0.170Corn 0.695 0.800 0.900 0.715 0.730Wheat 0.687 0.669 0.702 0.842 0.839Soyoil 2.158 n/a 2.008 n/a 2.473Soymeal 300,000 n/a 300,000 n/a 300,000Cotton 2.50 n/a 2.50 n/a 1.75Rice 42.1 n/a 48.6 n/a 55.6 USDA World Carryover Thursday May May 2011-12 2011-12 2010-11 Estimate estimate estimateWheat 184.26 181.26 182.2Corn 111.89 129.14 122.2Soybeans 61.59 61.85 63.8Soymeal 6.71 6.55 6.50Soyoil 2.38 2.18 2.69Cotton 48.25 47.93 42.5Rice 94.90 96.17 97.04 USDA World Grain Production Thursday May May 2011-12 2011-12 2010-11 Estimate estimate estimateChina corn 178.0 172.0 168.0South Africa corn 12.5 12.5 12.0Argentina corn 26.0 26.0 22.0Australia wheat 25.0 24.5 26.0Argentina wheat 15.0 13.5 15.0EU 27 wheat 131.50 138.62 135.76Canada wheat 25.0 26.0 23.17China wheat 115.0 115.5 115.0Russia wheat 53.0 53.0 41.51Ukraine wheat 19.0 19.0 16.84Brazil soybeans 72.5 72.5 73.0Argentina soybeans 53.0 53.0 49.5China soybeans 14.3 14.8 15.2 DJ SURVEY: June US Grain, Soybean Carryout Estimates CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions ofbushels for U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, ascompiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture isscheduled to release updated supply and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. ESTThursday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average andrange. 2010-11 May 2009-10 Average Range USDA USDACorn (19) 0.715 0.565-0.780 0.730 1.708Soybeans (19) 0.173 0.142-0.195 0.170 0.151Wheat (16) 0.842 0.824-0.868 0.839 0.976 Corn Soy WheatABN Amro 0.730 0.170 0.839AgriSource 0.750 0.175 0.839Allendale 0.708 0.185 0.834Citigroup 0.730 0.170 0.824Doane Advisory Services 0.730 0.180 n/aFarm Futures 0.765 0.155 0.853Global Commodity Analytics 0.635 0.190 0.835Kropf & Love 0.730 0.170 0.850Linn Group 0.565 0.142 0.831Macquarie Bank 0.700 0.170 0.868Newedge 0.730 0.175 0.843North America Risk Mgmt 0.730 0.180 0.839PFG Best 0.730 0.170 0.845Price Futures Group 0.730 0.170 0.839Prime Ag Consultants 0.730 0.170 0.839Prudential Bache 0.780 0.195 0.839Risk Management Commods 0.675 0.150 n/aRJ O'Brien 0.705 0.194 0.854US Commodities 0.733 0.180 n/a 2011-12 May Average Range USDACorn (19) 0.817 0.548-0.900 0.900Soybeans (19) 0.162 0.124-0.200 0.160Wheat (17) 0.678 0.495-0.742 0.702 Corn Soy WheatABN Amro 0.900 0.160 0.725AgriSource 0.890 0.160 0.720Allendale 0.848 0.186 0.722Citigroup 0.900 0.160 0.689Doane Advisory Services 0.723 0.160 0.616Farm Futures 0.783 0.149 0.717Global Commodity Analytics 0.900 0.160 0.702Kropf & Love 0.756 0.160 0.670Linn Group 0.548 0.124 0.495Macquarie Bank 0.835 0.190 0.670Newedge 0.800 0.170 0.684North America Risk Mgmt 0.900 0.170 0.675PFG Best 0.850 0.160 0.695Price Futures Group 0.900 0.160 0.700Prime Ag Consultants 0.900 0.160 0.702Prudential Bache 0.705 0.155 0.608Risk Management Commods 0.675 0.110 n/aRJ O'Brien 0.851 0.182 0.742US Commodities 0.853 0.200 n/aDJ SURVEY: June US Wheat Output Estimates CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions ofbushels for 2011 U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of June 1,as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture isscheduled to release updated wheat production at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range. Average Range May 2010 USDA Production All Wheat(9) 1.982 1.905-2.058 2.043 2.208 All Winter (13) 1.395 1.337-1.427 1.424 1.485 Hard Red Winter(14) 0.741 0.690-0.777 0.762 1.018 Soft Red Winter(14) 0.416 0.390-0.440 0.427 0.238 White Winter (13) 0.234 0.225-0.242 0.235 0.229 All All Wheat Winter HRW SRW White ABN Amro 2.040 1.427 0.750 0.440 0.237 Allendale 2.023 1.404 0.750 0.424 0.230 Citigroup 1.994 1.375 0.740 0.402 0.233 Doane Advisory 1.957 n/a n/a n/a n/a Farm Futures 1.946 1.349 0.726 0.394 0.229 Informa* n/a 1.421 0.764 0.422 n/a Kropf & Love 2.000 1.382 0.719 0.427 0.235 Linn Group 1.905 n/a 0.690 0.390 0.225 Macquarie Bank n/a 1.426 0.777 0.421 0.228 North Am Risk Mgmt n/a 1.397 0.737 0.420 0.240 Newedge n/a 1.414 0.755 0.422 0.237 PFG Best n/a 1.400 0.758 0.429 0.237 Price Futures Grp n/a 1.400 0.740 0.425 0.235 Prudential Bache 1.919 1.337 0.721 0.385 0.232 RJ O'Brien 2.058 1.407 0.745 0.420 0.242 *From traders DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 9 For the week ended Jun 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for cotton and rice begins Aug 1. The marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1. For wheat and barley, "this year" is the 2011-2012 marketing year, which began Jun 1, while "Last year" is 2010-2011. Source: USDA -a: Includes new sales activity the week May 27-Jun 2 which resulted in a net increase of 477.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes 1815.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from 2010-2011. -b: Includes new sales activity the week May 27-Jun 2 which resulted in a net increase of 0.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes 0.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from 2010-2011. wk's net change total in commitments commitments undlvd sales this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr wheat 2293.2-a 0.0 6638.4 4173.2 6495.5 0.0 corn 320.3 29.9 43802.4 45843.1 9931.1 3871.2 soybeans 120.5 0.1 41677.5 38850.4 4186.9 6790.0 soymeal 60.5 0.0 7083.8 8756.6 1267.2 249.5 soyoil 10.1 0.0 1216.9 1203.8 130.7 4.5 upland cotton -143.2 24.5 14458.2 12032.2 2339.9 5285.1 pima cotton 0.6 0.0 523.7 674.8 72.7 318.9 sorghum 75.5 36.0 3230.7 3257.6 620.7 59.3 barley 1.1-b 0.0 1.1 19.4 1.1 0.0 rice 113.8 0.0 3648.3 3533.7 562.2 3.2 General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday on some short covering and new buying before the USDA reports today. The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains. Such rapid progress would imply poor yields in the end. The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries around the world continue to provide support. Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops is a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. Northern and eastern Great Plains areas should also continue drier and warmer, but will not see completely dry weather as rains could be seen for the next couple of days. Spring Wheat planting progress is far behind normal, but farmers will get more chances this week to get some planting done. Farmers are also up against dates to collect on insurance, so not all of the Spring Wheat will likely get planted. Most of the eastern parts of the Canadian Prairies are just as bad, although some areas to the west are in better shape. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry weather in the Mid South and southern Midwest which should help the Wheat in those areas at least a little bit. These areas are now very hot and mostly dry. World weather is not good for production, either. Yield losses are expected in France, England, and Germany from drought. Charts show that the trends are mixed, but are trying to turn down.Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation Friday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should be mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 732, 706, and 691 July. Support is at 741, 731, and 723 July, with resistance at 754, 759, and 781 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 835 July. Support is at 872, 862, and 845 July, with resistance at 898, 922, and 932 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1012, 1004, and 998 July, and resistance is at 1039, 1055, and 1078 July.
General Comments: Prices were mixed yesterday in consolidation trading. Weather and poor growing conditions remain important. Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry now and flushing the crop for initial growth is now a problem. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the weekend. Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans. Demand remains a problem, and some reports indicate that Milled Rice demand is slow. However, cash markets in growing areas have been firming up in the last week or two as there is not much offer. Chart trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1462, 1440, and 1435 July, and resistance is at 1490, 1498, and 1508 July.
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher onideas the USDA reports today could be bullish and ideas that some planted area will be lost this year despite the current better Midwest weather. Warm and drier are likely for today and this weekend, although rains are forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Farmers will have some chances to plant before some rains return near the end of the week. Basis levels remain firm in the interior, so the lack of supplies and the domestic demand seem important. Gulf basis levels remain stable. Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east as rains return for the rest of this week. Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats planting, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress and for the planted crops to develop well. Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season. Weather remains bad in the southern Great Plains and Wheat has been stressed. Weather is dry for the Winter Corn crop in northern parts of Brazil, and yield losses are expected.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 743, 737, and 730 July, and resistance is at 754, 759, and 781 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 371, 361, and 358 July, and resistance is at 395, 398, and 410 July.General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and on reports of firm cash markets for Soybean Meal. The weather for this week and this weekend looks warm and mostly dry for most growing areas and there should be a lot of fieldwork that gets done. However, some rains should hit most Midwest growing areas today, tonight, and tomorrow to bring some delays. Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice. Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now. South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow. Charts show that trends are mixed for the short term, but the market appears to want to move higher.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is mixed. Midwest basis levels were steady to firm. Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1390, 1380, and 1367 July, and resistance is at 1419, 1431, and 1442 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 379.00 and 388.00July. Support is at 366.00, 364.00, and 360.00 July, and resistance is at 377.00, 381.00, and 390.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5770, 5720, and 5690 July, with resistance at 5870, 5940, and 6010 July.General Comments: Canola was a higher yesterday on weather forecasts and Canadian Dollar weakness. Planting progress remains very slow in Canada and rains have been seen in southern areas again. Rains are forecast for Europe this week, and rains have been reported in Belgium and Germany. France and England remain dry. A slow planting pace remains the primary support here. Cash market demand is said to be steady from domestic channels. Farm selling was quiet. There was talk of new export demand. Traders are watching Europe as well as the Rapeseed crops there are suffering from dry weather. Palm Oil was lower again today on improved US weather and Chicago price action. Traders expect generall strong prices due to ideas ofstrong exports, but futures appear to be in a correction mode.Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 583.00, 580.00, and 569.00 July, with resistance at 603.00, 606.00, and 612.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3235 and 3120 August. Support is at 3300, 3280, and 3210 August, with resistance at 3350, 3385, and 3400 August.Midwest Weather: Showers and storms today and tomorrow, then drier through the weekend. Temperatures will average above normal today, then near to below normal.View the original article here
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