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quinta-feira, 30 de junho de 2011

MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little lower yesterday before the USDA reports, but July closed higher.  Traders are getting ready for the reports from USDA that were released this morning and volumes were very slow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of Texas.  The USDA reports showed that the crop continued to deteriorate in the last week, and there is little hope for much improvement this week.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor and trends are generally down.  India said it is starting to offer Cotton at differentials below the futures of New York for the first time in a couple of years.  China cut import duties in a bid to increase supplies in the country over the weekend, and increasing supplies in other countries should keep demand questions in the forefront if prices start to move higher again.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 134.96 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.092 million bales, from 0.087 million yesterday.  ICE said that deliveries today were 27 contracts and now total 569 contracts for the month.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -135,300 bales this year and 35,200 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 3,400 bales this year and 500 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 124.00, 123.00, and 120.00 October, with resistance of 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 October.

6-30-2011 07:28 U.S. cotton acreage highlights-USDA   WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - The following are cotton highlights of theU.S. Agriculture Department's Annual Acreage report estimating plantings andharvest acres.   The data is based on field surveys taken during early June.                 U.S. COTTON CROP                (in million acres)           -------- PLANTED ACRES ---------                USDA      USDA             June 30 *Previous     Trade    Actual            Estimate  Estimate  Estimate      2010 All Cotton   13.725    12.566    13.260    10.974 06/28 10:50 CDT POLL-US 2011 cotton plantings up from USDA March estimate    NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Following are the results ofa survey on potential U.S. 2011 cotton plantings, compiled byThomson Reuters on Tuesday.    The USDA will release its report on potential plantings onThursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).----------------------------------------------------    In million acresAverage trade estimate                13.26Highest trade estimate                14.21Lowest trade estimate                 12.55USDA Ag Outlook forecast for cotton   12.60U.S. 2010 cotton plantings            11.04Carl Anderson, Texas A&M University   12.70Sharon Johnson, Penson Futures        12.70John Flanagan, Flanagan Trading       13.90Mike Stevens, SFS Futures             13.25Jobe Moss, MCM Group                  13.50Keith Brown, Keith Brown & Co.        14.21Jim Nunn, Nunn Cotton Co.             12.55General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday on some selling once again related to good weather in Florida.  A system formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but appears weak and destined for southern Mexico.  It will help Coffee crops there.  Charts show that futures are trying to decide on the next move and could be forming a top.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and is getting beneficial showers.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 180.00 September, with resistance at 190.00, 194.00, and 197.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and Sao Paulo after a surprise frost hit production areas in Parana.  It looks like a freeze damaged the Corn crop in many parts of the state, but Coffee was not hurt nearly as much.  Loss reports, if any, should surface in a couple of days.  Some flowers could also be lost, although trees should be able to form more flowers once the cold air passes through.  Another cold shot is possible early next week.  London was lower on a lack of buying interest after the big rally the day before.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  The potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.622 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 216.87 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and below normal next week.  ICE said that 254 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,426 contracts.  Vietnam expects to produce 18.0 million bags of Coffee in 2011-12, from 17.5 million in 2010-11.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 264.00 and 275.00 September.  Support is at 252.00, 247.00, and 244.00 September, and resistance is at 263.00, 265.00, and 268.00 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2370 September, and resistance is at 2520, 2545, and 2560 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 354.00, 362.00, and 371.00 September.  Support is at 327.00, 326.00, and 320.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 346.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed mixed in New York and mostly lower in London yesterday in consolidation trading.  The rally early in the week came after UNICA said that the Center-South Sugar crush is 134.6 million tons so far this year, down 23% from last year.  The estimate was below trade expectations, and combined with shipping delays created the idea of tight spot supplies in world markets.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India increased exports last week, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower.  However, there are shipment delays there as well as in Brazil.  The market acts as if prices could move higher on the short term tightness and despite ideas of lower Brazil production despite signs of increased production globally, but then could move lower once the production gets into the market. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal this weekend, then cold again next week.  Mexico has produced 5.2 million tons of Sugar so far this year, up 7% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2800 and 3000 October.  Support is at 2630, 2600, and 2560 October, and resistance is at 2730, 2755, and 2800 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 705.00 and 744.00 October.  Support is at 678.00, 666.00, and 662.00 October, and resistance is at 699.00, 712.00, and 720.00 October.

 General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher in New York and in London yesterday as trends turned up on the charts.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin was the best seller, but origin did not sell too much.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low in recent days, but for now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market, although there is less selling pressure from there in the last week.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are up after the price action yesterday. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.744 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month.  Brazil Cocoa arrivals are 79,868 bags this week.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3270 and 3470 September.  Support is at 3070, 3045, and 3030 September, with resistance at 3080, 3170, and 3190 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1920, 1860, and 1830 September, with resistance at 2000, 2010, and 2020 September.


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quarta-feira, 29 de junho de 2011

MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mixed yesterday.  Traders are getting ready for the reports from USDA tomorrow and volumes were very slow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of Texas.  The USDA reports showed that the crop continued to deteriorate in the last week, and there is little hope for much improvement this week.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor and trends are generally down.  India said it is starting to offer Cotton at differentials below the futures of New York for the first time in a couple of years.  China cut import duties in a bid to increase supplies in the country over the weekend, and increasing supplies in other countries should keep demand questions in the forefront if prices start to move higher again.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 135.67 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.087 million bales, from 0.084 million yesterday.  USDA said that its Upland Cotton world market price is 135.72 ct/lb.  ICE said that deliveries today were 47 contracts and now total 542 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 124.00, 123.00, and 120.00 October, with resistance of 130.00, 131.00, and 132.00 October.

06/28 10:50 CDT POLL-US 2011 cotton plantings up from USDA March estimate    NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Following are the results ofa survey on potential U.S. 2011 cotton plantings, compiled byThomson Reuters on Tuesday.    The USDA will release its report on potential plantings onThursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).----------------------------------------------------    In million acresAverage trade estimate                13.26Highest trade estimate                14.21Lowest trade estimate                 12.55USDA Ag Outlook forecast for cotton   12.60U.S. 2010 cotton plantings            11.04Carl Anderson, Texas A&M University   12.70Sharon Johnson, Penson Futures        12.70John Flanagan, Flanagan Trading       13.90Mike Stevens, SFS Futures             13.25Jobe Moss, MCM Group                  13.50Keith Brown, Keith Brown & Co.        14.21Jim Nunn, Nunn Cotton Co.             12.55General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday on some profit taking related to good weather in Florida.  News that a tropical system could be forming in the Atlantic had little effect on prices as the system would stay south of the US, and there is no other organized system of interest out there for now.  A system could form, but appears weak and destined for southern Mexico.  Charts show that futures have started a new leg higher.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 205.00 July.  Support is at 192.00, 188.00, and 187.00 July, with resistance at 200.00, 203.00, and 206.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Jun 28   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).                                2010-2011                         Jun 18        Jun 11      Year Ago  MOVEMENTRetail                  122,613       145,925       227,073Institutional           290,592       411,353       365,833Bulk                  1,699,674     2,545,512     1,606,038Total                 2,112,878     3,102,789     2,198,945Cumulative          115,430,447   113,317,568    92,752,171  IMPORTSForeign                 125,503       192,657       463,449Cumulative           13,032,662    12,907,160    19,247,415  RECEIPTSDomestic                 62,192        38,685        29,788  PACKRetail                  150,684       150,018       147,801Institutional           348,563       313,800       349,804Bulk                  2,761,441     2,878,826     1,958,722Less Reprocessed      1,455,199     1,502,424     1,803,188Net                   1,805,489     1,840,221       653,139Cumulative           79,036,396    77,230,908    82,252,237Inventory            75,249,578    75,388,209   128,585,201General Comments:  Futures were higher in all three markets after a surprise frost hit production areas in Parana.  It looks like a freeze damaged the Corn crop in many parts of the state, but Coffee was not hurt nearly as much.  Loss reports, if any, should surface in a couple of days.  Some flowers could also be lost, although trees should be able to form more flowers once the cold air passes through.  Another night of cold air was forecast for last night, but damage was said to be minor.  Another cold shot is possible early next week  Ideas are that Coffee prices have gone low enough for now.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  However, sources in London say there is good demand for Coffee there although who is the buyer is unknown.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  The potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.623 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 216.63 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal.  ICE said that 10 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,172 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 264.00 and 275.00 September.  Support is at 252.00, 247.00, and 244.00 September, and resistance is at 259.00, 261.00, and 265.00 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2370 September, and resistance is at 2520, 2545, and 2560 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 354.00, 362.00, and 371.00 September.  Support is at 327.00, 326.00, and 320.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 346.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher in New York and lower in London yesterday on the news of lower production once again in Brazil.  UNICA said that the Center-South Sugar crush is 134.6 million tons so far this year, down 23% from last year.  The estimate was below trade expectations, and combined with shipping delays created the idea of tight spot supplies in world markets.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India increased exports last week.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big even if they are dropping in Brazil.  Both countries are said to be behind in shipping Sugar to overseas buyers.  Prices in Thailand are said to be sharply lower this week after India moved to increase exports last week.  The market acts as if prices could move higher on the short term tightness and despite ideas of lower Brazil production despite signs of increased production globally, but then could move lower once the production gets into the market. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2800 and 3000 October.  Support is at 2630, 2600, and 2560 October, and resistance is at 2755, 2800, and 2830 October.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 705.00 and 744.00 October.  Support is at 666.00, 662.00, and 656.00 October, and resistance is at 712.00, 720.00, and 732.00 October.

General Comments:  Futures were slightly higher in New York and in London yesterday in consolidation trading.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin was the best seller.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low in recent days, but for now there is still no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.731 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.243 million tons, up 18.1% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 3010, 2985, and 2950 September, with resistance at 3045, 3060, and 3075 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1805 September, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 2000 September.


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quinta-feira, 23 de junho de 2011

MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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06/23 08:32 CDT IEA: Countries to release 60M barrels of oil    IEA: Countries to release 60M barrels of oil     PARIS (AP) -- The International Energy Agency says 28 countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of crude to the market to offset disruptions prompted by Libya's war. The Paris-based agency said in a statement Thursday that it made the move because the normal increase in demand over the summer "will exacerbate the shortfall further." It also warned that the tight oil market "threatens to undermine the fragile global economic recovery." The countries will make 2 million barrels a day available from their emergency stocks over a period of 30 days.[Related Stories] General Comments:  Futures closed mostly lower yesterday in consolidation trading, but July closed sharply higher as shorts exit from potential delivery positions as deliveries will start tomorrow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with wire services now running stories about the drought in Texas.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of the state.  Some rain was seen in the state, but not really in major Cotton areas.  Rain has been forecast in Georgia for the rest of this week.  Ideas are that few deliveries can be made as the supplies are not available.  Wire reports that Texas dryland farmers are on the verge of declaring crops as disasters added some support.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but a few showers are possible over the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 134.94 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.068 million bales, from 0.067 million yesterday.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -1,100 bales this year and -33,100 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 100 bales this year and 1,000 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 173.00 July.  Support is at 157.00, 155.00, and 150.00 July, with resistance of 161.00, 164.00, and 166.00 July.

06/23 07:05a CST  DJ US Cotton Consumption: Stocks And Trade - Jun 23    In running bales. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Year agofigures reflect revised data reported in the 2010 Summary.                                           May 11         Apr 11         May 10                                         4 weeks        4 weeks        4 weeks                                     05/01-05/28    04/03-04/30    05/02-05/29consumption                              269,248        266,460        274,517  thousand pounds                        133,804        132,273        136,530daily average  seasonally adjusted                     13,107         13,244         13,169  non-adjusted                            13,463         13,323         13,574  cotton staple consumptiontotal stocks                           3,571,674      4,794,488      5,121,735  at mills                               129,724        138,362        146,527    thousand pounds                       64,359         68,496         72,607  public storage                       3,441,950      4,656,126      4,975,208-spindle activity (all industries)--  in place (thousands)                       985            982          1,014  active (thousands)                         926            918            955  spindle hours (mln)                        580            579            569General Comments:  Futures closed higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying.  Charts show that futures probably began a new leg higher this week, and July prices are already near initial objectives.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.  Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees.  The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation.  Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season.  Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 196.00 and 205.00 July.  Support is at 188.00, 187.00, and 186.00 July, with resistance at 197.00, 200.00, and 203.00 July.

General Comments:  Futures were a little lower in consolidation trading, with increasing offers from Asia and Brazil still hurting any rally potential.  Washed Coffee exports were big in May, adding to ideas of ample supplies for now.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  Lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.  Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well.  Production for the coming year does not look as bad as originally thought, and this has hurt deferred prices. Chart show that trends are down as futures absorb the increased offers from Asia and Brazil.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.625 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 204.92 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  ICE said that 481 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,586 contracts.  Latin American Washed Coffee exports were 2.84 million bags, up 23% from last year.  Year to date exports are now 18.89 million bags, up 18% from last year.  An official with the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association said that production there might only be 490,000 tons, down 30% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 243.00 September.  Support is at 244.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 257.00, and 259.00 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2250 September.  Support is at 2245, 2230, and 2210 September, and resistance is at 2300, 2370, and 2410 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 270.00 September.  Support is at 317.00, 309.00, and 307.00 September, and resistance is at 321.00, 326.00, and 327.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower in New York and in London yesterday in what appeared to be some speculative and produce r selling.  New York was unable to make new highs for the move and could see some liquidation trading today and tomorrow.  Reports that Sugar is flowing from Brazil despite delays hurt the bulls.  Yields in Brazil remain down from last year, so total Sugar production might not be all that strong.  However, producers were noted sellers yesterday.  Some buying was noted on ideas that the weather in Brazil is not getting better.  Demand has been good as many Middle Eastern countries get ready for Ramadan.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big even if they are dropping a bit in Brazil.  Both countries are said to be behind in shipping Sugar to overseas buyers.  Trends remain up, but it is possible that this part of the up move is running out of steam. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  USDA increased the Sugar import quota for the second time this year last night.  The move is not unexpected and did not support futures much yesterday, but might today.  India has allowed the export of an additional 500,000 tons of Sugar as of today.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2710 October.  Support is at 2560, 2490, and 2460 October, and resistance is at 2630, 2670, and 2755 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 687.00 and 708.00 October.  Support is at 666.00, 656.00, and 643.00 October, and resistance is at 680.00, 697.00, and 712.00 October.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London again yesterday on concerns about crop quality in Western Africa.  In addition, recent wire service reports have noted that many Ivory Coast farmers refuse to return home, so supplies from there might be smaller than originally thought at the beginning of the market year due to labor problems.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low, but for now there is no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.452 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2970, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3060, 3080, and 3170 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1870, 1860, and 1830 September, with resistance at 1905, 1940, and 1950 September.


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segunda-feira, 20 de junho de 2011

MANHÃ de grãos comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mixed Friday, with Chicago a little lower and Kansas City a little higher and Minneapolis on both sides of unchanged.  Hurting Wheat was the big selling by funds in response to the European economic problems and harvest progress.  The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains.  Progress has been slower in Kansas due to showers there.  The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries continue to provide support.  Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.  More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota yesterday.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue.  More rain is forecast for Europe in the next few days.  Charts show that the trends are down.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation early this week.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the week.   Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady to firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Saudi Arabia bought 330,000 tons of US and European What over the weekend.    

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 654 July.  Support is at 664, 660, and 647 July, with resistance at 684, 691, and 701 July.  Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives.  Support is at 790, 775, and 732 July, with resistance at 810, 828, and 845 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 835 and 685 July.  Support is at 888, 884, and 878 July, and resistance is at 918, 932, and 965 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                  CFTC Code #001602                                                    Open Interest is   577,958                : Positions                                                                                                    :   55,787   205,867   179,320    16,183    45,600    64,516    56,958    58,519    27,621    27,918    96,191                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :   -1,231   -10,708     2,342      -446    -2,852    -2,004    10,892    -2,003     2,689      -830    -3,050                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :      9.7      35.6      31.0       2.8       7.9      11.2       9.9      10.1       4.8       4.8      16.6                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   451                     :       75       102        20         8        25        59        72        73        89        77       127 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WHEAT - KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              CFTC Code #001612                                                    Open Interest is   185,925                : Positions                                                                                                    :   42,341   102,684    26,956     6,624    11,059    45,369     5,449     9,459    10,860     5,700    15,088                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :     -502    -3,217       117       271     1,033       190      -131    -1,387      -664       131       203                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     22.8      55.2      14.5       3.6       5.9      24.4       2.9       5.1       5.8       3.1       8.1                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   192                     :       52        72        13         .         8        38         8        20        22        20        35 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WHEAT - MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    61,663                : Positions                                                                                                    :   16,896    40,643     1,106         0         0    15,818       324     1,634     5,240       892     4,324                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :    3,052     1,506      -223         0        -4      -197       301       558      -858        66     1,486                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     27.4      65.9       1.8       0.0       0.0      25.7       0.5       2.7       8.5       1.4       7.0                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    77                     :       26        27         4         0         .        17         .         6        13         5        11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General Comments: Prices were lower again Friday on speculative selling tied to weakness seen in most commodities markets and the European economic issues.  Some short covering brought futures off of the lows late in the session.  World production and prices remain a concern, and those prices have been soft, although have been a little firmer in Asia in the last week.  Weather and poor growing conditions in the US remain important, but overall crop ratings improved last week to take away some of the bullish influence.  Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry in many areas.  Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the week, but some beneficial precipitation is possible about midweek.  Texas crops appear to be mostly fair, but overall crops showed good improvement.  It has been very dry there, so irrigation is being used.  Chart trends are down for the short term. 

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with no objectives.  Support is at 1390, 1385, and 1383 July, and resistance is at 1405, 1427, and 1435 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ROUGH RICE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    21,823                : Positions                                                                                                    :    4,050    15,709     4,250         0         0     3,601       728        13     2,493     1,391     2,471                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :       -0    -1,037        33         0         0      -189         0         0      -559       118       221                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     18.6      72.0      19.5       0.0       0.0      16.5       3.3       0.1      11.4       6.4      11.3                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    99                     :       18        24        11         0         0        19         4         .        21        14        17 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

General Comments:   Corn was mostly higher and Oats were lower Friday on weather and fund selling, but there was a lot of late short covering, especially in the Corn.  Much of the selling was in response to the economic problems seen in Europe.  Basis levels have turned weaker in late week trading, but Gulf basis levels remain stable.  Warm and drier are likely for much of this week, but precipitation is possible about midweek.  Overall conditions appear to be improving.  Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east and many farmers may now look to plant other crops such as Soybeans.  Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats development, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress.  Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season.  September could be the strongest month if weather remains cool and progress remains slow as crop progress is late now.  Crops near and south of Chicago look mostly good but very late.  There are a lot of holes in fields where water had been standing.  Supplies could be very tight by September.  Trends are down for now.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to weak in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 675 and 618 July.  Support is at 692, 659, and 654 July, and resistance is at 727, 730, and 737 July.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 350, 321, and 304 July.  Support is at 354, 350, and 336 July, and resistance is at 361, 371, and 379 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   CFTC Code #002602                                                    Open Interest is 2,224,832                : Positions                                                                                                    :  335,688   870,958   293,848    54,124   170,719   362,525    26,104   262,327    93,670    60,015   488,230                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :   -3,798    -2,830     1,786       -49    14,512    15,001    -2,332     7,199    -3,676     7,380    21,180                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     15.1      39.1      13.2       2.4       7.7      16.3       1.2      11.8       4.2       2.7      21.9                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   953                     :      271       394        19        10        26       144        31        95       162       137       240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------OATS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is    14,355                : Positions                                                                                                    :    4,108    11,567     2,259         0       135     3,571       113         2       109       503     1,029                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :       23       681       -64         0         0       723      -107       -59      -260        42      -307                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     28.6      80.6      15.7       0.0       0.9      24.9       0.8       0.0       0.8       3.5       7.2                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    44                     :       11        13         5         0         .        13         .         .         .         5         5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CBT ETHANOL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)                                      CFTC Code #025601                                                    Open Interest is     9,652                : Positions                                                                                                    :    7,577     7,450        34       766       242        65         0       298       494       118       392                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :      956       421        34       273       -47        65       -87        -3      -426         0        25                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     78.5      77.2       0.4       7.9       2.5       0.7       0.0       3.1       5.1       1.2       4.1                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    41                     :       18        23         .         .         .         .         0         .         4         .         4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General Comments:  Soybeans and products closed lower Friday on weakness in most commodities markets and the European crisis.  There was no real bullish news for Soybeans, although cash markets in the interior US remain strong.  The weather for this week looks warmer and drier for most growing areas, but some precipitation is likely about midweek.  Crops near and south of Chicago in Illinois are just emerging.  Demand does not seem that strong.  Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice.  Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now.  South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow.  Charts show that trends are down. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.  Midwest basis levels were steady to firm.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1299 July.  Support is at 1313, 1307, and 1305 July, and resistance is at 1353, 1355, and 1360 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 349.00, 342.00, and 341.00July.  Support is at 349.00, 345.00, and 343.00 July, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 366.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5430 July.  Support is at 5560, 5510, and 5485 July, with resistance at 5620, 5640, and 5710 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                               CFTC Code #005602                                                    Open Interest is   835,443                : Positions                                                                                                    :  164,403   343,890   140,774    20,606    42,186   126,684    27,005   101,427    21,794    32,889   175,018                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :    9,173   -17,546       628       274       561   -13,695     4,177    -2,318    -1,339     1,341    -1,584                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     19.7      41.2      16.9       2.5       5.0      15.2       3.2      12.1       2.6       3.9      20.9                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   590                     :      103       175        21         7        26        98        39        79        94       127       168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------MINI SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (Contracts of 1,000 Bushels)                                          CFTC Code #005603                                                    Open Interest is    26,631                : Positions                                                                                                    :        3     6,545         0         0         0         0         0         0    23,550     3,130       217                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :        0        90         0         0         0      -200         0         0      -124       -31       137                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :      0.0      24.6       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0      88.4      11.8       0.8                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    43                     :        .        18         0         0         0         0         0         0        16         9         8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SOYBEAN CSO - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                            CFTC Code #005606                                                    Open Interest is    14,820                : Positions                                                                                                    :    7,036       598     1,305         0         8         9     4,818     1,192     1,603     4,697     3,235                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :       24       -25         3         0        -1       -11        56       405       439       477       278                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     47.5       4.0       8.8       0.0       0.1       0.1      32.5       8.0      10.8      31.7      21.8                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    27                     :        6         4         6         0         .         .         .         .         6         4         9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SOYBEAN OIL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)                                            CFTC Code #007601                                                    Open Interest is   397,121                : Positions                                                                                                    :   93,538   231,859    78,815     1,863    12,999    65,678    20,581    32,024    23,719    17,194    54,621                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :   11,005   -12,195        11        30     1,065    -9,794     7,809      -595     1,232     1,444    -3,424                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     23.6      58.4      19.8       0.5       3.3      16.5       5.2       8.1       6.0       4.3      13.8                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   278                     :       53        66        16         .        13        57        26        29        32        51        73 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011              :                                             Reportable Positions                                             :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SOYBEAN MEAL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)                                                CFTC Code #026603                                                    Open Interest is   265,496                : Positions                                                                                                    :   76,864   150,210    20,766     3,816     5,257    47,117    12,945    31,974     7,546     6,867    28,799                                                                                                               : Changes from:     June 7, 2011                                                                               :     -438    -1,219     1,091    -1,310       277    -1,642     1,251    -1,227     1,595      -375    -1,483                                                                                                               : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :     29.0      56.6       7.8       1.4       2.0      17.7       4.9      12.0       2.8       2.6      10.8                                                                                                               : Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   203                     :       56        59        11         .        12        50        15        28        23        18        39 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------General Comments:  Canola was lower Friday on liquidation selling tied to price action in Chicago.  Demand seems to have dried up.  Planting progress remains very slow in Canada.  Rains are forecast for Europe again this week to improve things there.  France and England remain dry.  A slow planting pace remains the primary support here.  Palm Oil was unchanged to a little lower in consolidation trading and after a big down week last week.  Positive export data from private sources provided support as did ideas of increasing demand for the short term.  Weakness in Chicago is hurting price action here. Trends are down.  SGS estimated exports so far this month at 973,211 tons, from 819,257 tons last month.  ITK estimated exports at 969,804 tons, from 794,322 tons last month.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 570.00, 553.00, and 536.00 July.  Support is at 574.00, 569.00, and 564.00 July, with resistance at 589.00, 600.00, and 603.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3100 September.  Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3095 September, with resistance at 3210, 3330, and 3395 September.

06/17 12:00 CDT Canada weekly canola crushings up 25.6 pct    WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 17 (Reuters) - Report of weeklycrushings by the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association forthe week ended June 15 (in tonnes).                             Canola              SoybeansWeek ended June 15           108,604                25,622Change from previous week (%)  +25.6                  -2.92010/11 to date            5,214,714             1,204,097Year ago                   3,929,733             1,144,710Week ended June 8             86,457                26,391June 1                        90,830                25,450May 25                       116,718                29,191May 18                       106,848                27,796May 11                       116,107                29,407Crush capacity utilization (%)This week                     74.8                57.2Year to date                  85.4                63.9Year ago                      81.7                60.8Midwest Weather:   Scattered showers over the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.


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quarta-feira, 15 de junho de 2011

MANHÃ de grãos comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday in response to reports of beneficial rains in Europe and ideas of strong offers from Russia.  The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains.  Such rapid progress would imply poor yields in the end and imply that USDA will need to lower production estimates in future reports.  The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries around the world continue to provide support.  Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.  More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota yesterday.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue.  Charts show that the trends are down.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation Friday and this weekend.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the weekend.   Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady to firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Saudi Arabia has tendered to buy 330,000 tons of Wheat. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 706, 696, and 691 July.  Support is at 723, 714, and 691 July, with resistance at 737, 741, and 748 July.  Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 802 July.  Support is at 828, 810, and 775 July, with resistance at 845, 854, and 862 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 835 and 685 July.  Support is at 965, 936, and 918 July, and resistance is at 972, 978, and 985 July.

General Comments: Prices were lower again yesterday on speculative selling tied to no bullish news and ideas that conditions overall are improving.  Extreme weakness in Corn hurt all grains and oilseeds markets yesterday, and Rice was no exception.  World production and prices remain a concern, and those prices have been soft.  Weather and poor growing conditions in the US remain important, but overall crop ratings improved last week to take away some of the bullish influence.  Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry in many areas.  Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the weekend.  Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans.  Texas crops appear to be mostly fair, but overall crops showed good improvement.  It has been very dry there, so irrigation is being used.  Chart trends are mixed. 

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1390 July.  Support is at 1405, 1390, and 1383 July, and resistance is at 1440, 1467, and 1490 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Jun 15   USDA today announced the prevailing world market pricesof milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yieldsand location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates.                     -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)Long Grain            18.81        11.83       0.00Medium/Short Grain    18.49        12.44       0.00Brokens               13.31         ----       ---- 

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on weather and USDA progress and condition estimates that showed improvement in both areas.  Basis levels remain firm in the interior, so the lack of supplies and the domestic demand seem important.  Gulf basis levels remain stable with no particular reports of strong demand so far this week.  Warm and drier are likely for this week and this weekend, although showers and storms are possible over the next couple of days.  Overall conditions appear to be improving.  Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east and many farmers may now look to plant other crops such as Soybeans.  Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats development, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress.  Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season.  September could be the strongest month if weather remains cool and progress remains slow.  Supplies could be very tight by then.  Weather remains bad in the southern Great Plains and Wheat has been stressed.  However, wet weather in the southern Midwest has probably produced an abundance of Feed Wheat.  Weather is dry for the Winter Corn crop in northern parts of Brazil, and yield losses are expected.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 755, 733, and 703 July.  Support is at 743, 737, and 730 July, and resistance is at 765, 770, and 775 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 381, 375, and 374 July, and resistance is at 395, 398, and 410 July.

General Comments:  Soybeans and products closed lower again yesterday in liquidation selling.  Soybean Oil found support from stronger Crude Oil futures and closed with very small losses.  Much of the selling seemed related to weakness in corn futures, but was also tied to the USDA crop progress and condition reports that showed good progress.  The weather for this week looks warmer and mostly dry for most growing areas.  However, some rains should hit most Midwest growing areas today and tomorrow.  Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice.  Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now.  South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow.  Charts show that trends are down. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.  Midwest basis levels were steady to firm.    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1339 and 1299 July.  Support is at 1353, 1342, and 1313 July, and resistance is at 1377, 1380, and 1390 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 355.00, 349.00, and 342.00July.  Support is at 351.00, 349.00, and 345.00 July, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 366.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5600 and 5430 July.  Support is at 5640, 5620, and 5560 July, with resistance at 5710, 5770, and 5800 July.

General Comments:  Canola was lower yesterday on liquidation selling tied to price action in Chicago.  Demand seems to have dried up.  Planting progress remains very slow in Canada.  Rains are forecast for Europe again this week to improve things there.  France and England remain dry.  A slow planting pace remains the primary support here.  Palm Oil was slightly higher in consolidation trading.   MPOB data showing increased stocks was very negative, but part of the market.  Positive export data from private sources provided support as did ideas of increasing demand for the short term.  Weakness in Chicago is hurting price action here. Trends are down.  SGS estimated exports so far this month at 699,674 tons, from 601,984 tons last month.  ITK estimated exports so far at 671,314 tons, from 533,419 tons last month.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 570.00, 553.00, and 536.00 July.  Support is at 580.00, 569.00, and 564.00 July, with resistance at 600.00, 603.00, and 606.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3120 August.  Support is at 3200, 3150, and 3130 August, with resistance at 3280, 3300, and 3350 August.

Midwest Weather:   Showers today and tomorrow, then drier into the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.


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MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mostly higher as USDA showed the crop was in poor shape in the US.  July was higher on liquidation before the deliveries start later in the month.  Ideas are that few deliveries can be made as the supplies are not available.  Wire reports that Texas dryland farmers are on the verge of declaring crops as disasters added some support.  Dry weather in Texas growing areas provided support for new crop Cotton futures.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, has been very dry, and there are no forecasts for much relief, if any, into next week.  Eastern areas have had some precipitation in the last week or so, but it remains too dry in many growing areas of the Southeast, especially in Georgia.  Delta areas are warm and dry.  Demand remains poor, with more export sales cancellations seen in the USDA reports last week.  Pakistan expects to produce a record 15 million bales of Cotton in 2011-12.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be dry or will see a few showers.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 155.10 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.057 million bales, from 0.055 million yesterday.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 148.00, 146.00, and 143.00 May, with resistance of 157.00, 159.00, and 161.00 May.

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Jun 14     For Jun 10 long and short positions in contracts.SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT  Total        59,681   1,409    39.0  43,528   1,008    28.4HEDGING  Total        93,452     309    61.0 109,605     252    71.6 GRAND TOTAL:  153,133   1,718   100.0 153,133   1,260   100.0General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday in range trading.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.  Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees.  The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation.  Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season.  Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 181.00, 179.00, and 177.00 July, with resistance at 187.00, 188.00, and 191.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Jun 14   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).                                2010-2011                         Jun 04        May 28      Year Ago  MOVEMENTRetail                  130,125       177,244       307,719Institutional           295,100       363,823       335,383Bulk                  3,924,036     3,265,613     1,438,385Total                 4,349,262     3,806,680     2,081,486Cumulative          110,214,779   105,865,517    87,408,537  IMPORTSForeign                 751,560       151,085       445,578Cumulative           12,714,503    11,962,943    18,703,701  RECEIPTSDomestic                 60,898        60,434        15,127  PACKRetail                  112,454       154,837       300,637Institutional           295,867       442,360       264,832Bulk                  2,863,760     4,180,275     3,699,660Less Reprocessed      1,326,370     2,358,431     1,798,696Net                   1,945,711     2,419,040     2,466,433Cumulative           75,390,687    73,444,976    80,398,973Inventory            76,393,232    77,926,250   131,573,618General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York, but lower in London.  London moved lower on ideas of good Robusta production coming with harvests starting soon and with good nearby supplies.  New York rallied in response to better than expected economic news.  Producers are still not selling much, but there seems to be an uptick in offers now as some producers feel they have missed the market.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  Lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.  Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well.  But, the ICO showed that supplies might not be so tight in the coming year.  Chart show that trends remain mixed for now.  But, overall it seems that futures want to work higher.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are about unchanged today and are about 1.671 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 221.02 ct/lb.  Brazil should see scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to below normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 264.00, 263.00, and 260.00 July, and resistance is at 271.00, 272.00, and 274.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2320, 2220, and 2200 July.  Support is at 2280, 2225, and 2200 July, and resistance is at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 354.00, 371.00, and 408.00 September.  Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 327.00 September, and resistance is at 352.00, 359.00, and 369.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and in London in response to news that Brazil had crushed 5.5% more Sugarcane than last year.  Ideas of slow processing and shipping delays had supported prices.  Yields were down sharply from last year, so total Sugar production might not be all that strong in the end.  There was a lot of rolling noted as NY July goes off the Board at the end of the month.  Some buying was noted on ideas that the weather in Brazil is not getting better.  Demand has been increasing as many Middle Eastern countries get ready for Ramadan.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big.  Trends remain up, but it is possible that this part of the up move is running out of steam. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil this weekend, but showers are likely the rest of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2400 July, and resistance is at 2590, 2600, and 2660 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 692.00, 689.00, and 684.00 August, and resistance is at 706.00, 718.00, and 719.00 August.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and mixed in London .  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low, but for now there is no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are a little higher today and are now about 3.337 million bags.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2950, 2900, and 2860 July, with resistance at 3070, 3100, and 3130 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1810, 1770, and 1740 July, with resistance at 1860, 1890, and 1930 July.


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sexta-feira, 10 de junho de 2011

MANHÃ de grãos comentários Jack Scoville

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DJ USDA Report: Summary For June Production, Supply And Demand  CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following table is provided as a service to DowJones Newswires subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department ofAgriculture's June production, supply and demand reports.  U.S. estimates are in billions of bushels except soyoil, which is inbillions of pounds. Soymeal is in short tons. Cotton is in millions of480-pound bales. Rice is in million hundredweight. World crop forecasts are inmillions of metric tons. Numbers are rounded to nearest thousand.                 USDA U.S. Wheat Production                 Thursday                          May   2010                 2011-12    Average      Range    USDA  Production                 EstimateAll Wheat        2.058      1.982    1.905-2.058  2.043  2.208All Winter       1.450      1.395    1.337-1.427  1.424  1.485Hard Red Winter  0.777      0.741    0.690-0.777  0.762  1.018Soft Red Winter  0.434      0.416    0.390-0.440  0.427  0.238White Winter     0.240      0.234    0.225-0.242  0.235  0.229                  USDA U.S. Grain, Cotton Carryout           Thursday    2011-12   May      2010-11     May           2011-12     analyst   2011-12  Analyst     2010-11           Estimated   estimate  USDA     estimate    USDA Soybeans   0.190       0.165     0.160    0.173       0.170Corn       0.695       0.800     0.900    0.715       0.730Wheat      0.687       0.669     0.702    0.842       0.839Soyoil     2.158       n/a      2.008     n/a        2.473Soymeal    300,000     n/a      300,000   n/a        300,000Cotton     2.50        n/a      2.50      n/a        1.75Rice       42.1        n/a      48.6      n/a        55.6                  USDA World Carryover                Thursday      May            May                2011-12       2011-12       2010-11                Estimate      estimate      estimateWheat           184.26        181.26        182.2Corn            111.89        129.14        122.2Soybeans         61.59         61.85         63.8Soymeal           6.71          6.55         6.50Soyoil            2.38          2.18         2.69Cotton           48.25         47.93         42.5Rice             94.90         96.17        97.04                   USDA World Grain Production                      Thursday     May            May                     2011-12      2011-12        2010-11                     Estimate     estimate       estimateChina corn           178.0        172.0          168.0South Africa corn     12.5         12.5           12.0Argentina corn        26.0         26.0           22.0Australia wheat       25.0         24.5           26.0Argentina wheat       15.0         13.5           15.0EU 27 wheat          131.50       138.62         135.76Canada wheat          25.0         26.0          23.17China wheat          115.0        115.5          115.0Russia wheat          53.0         53.0          41.51Ukraine wheat         19.0         19.0          16.84Brazil soybeans       72.5         72.5           73.0Argentina soybeans    53.0         53.0           49.5China soybeans        14.3         14.8           15.2 DJ SURVEY: June US Grain, Soybean Carryout Estimates   CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions ofbushels for U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, ascompiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture isscheduled to release updated supply and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. ESTThursday. Parentheses denote the  number of estimates in that average andrange.  2010-11                                          May       2009-10                 Average     Range        USDA      USDACorn (19)        0.715     0.565-0.780    0.730     1.708Soybeans (19)    0.173     0.142-0.195    0.170     0.151Wheat (16)       0.842     0.824-0.868    0.839     0.976                           Corn           Soy         WheatABN Amro                   0.730          0.170       0.839AgriSource                 0.750          0.175       0.839Allendale                  0.708          0.185       0.834Citigroup                  0.730          0.170       0.824Doane Advisory Services    0.730          0.180        n/aFarm Futures               0.765          0.155       0.853Global Commodity Analytics 0.635          0.190       0.835Kropf & Love               0.730          0.170       0.850Linn Group                 0.565          0.142       0.831Macquarie Bank             0.700          0.170       0.868Newedge                    0.730          0.175       0.843North America Risk Mgmt    0.730          0.180       0.839PFG Best                   0.730          0.170       0.845Price Futures Group        0.730          0.170       0.839Prime Ag Consultants       0.730          0.170       0.839Prudential Bache           0.780          0.195       0.839Risk Management Commods    0.675          0.150        n/aRJ O'Brien                 0.705          0.194       0.854US Commodities             0.733          0.180        n/a 2011-12                                                   May                          Average      Range       USDACorn (19)                 0.817     0.548-0.900    0.900Soybeans (19)             0.162     0.124-0.200    0.160Wheat (17)                0.678     0.495-0.742    0.702                           Corn          Soy          WheatABN Amro                   0.900         0.160        0.725AgriSource                 0.890         0.160        0.720Allendale                  0.848         0.186        0.722Citigroup                  0.900         0.160        0.689Doane Advisory Services    0.723         0.160        0.616Farm Futures               0.783         0.149        0.717Global Commodity Analytics 0.900         0.160        0.702Kropf & Love               0.756         0.160        0.670Linn Group                 0.548         0.124        0.495Macquarie Bank             0.835         0.190        0.670Newedge                    0.800         0.170        0.684North America Risk Mgmt    0.900         0.170        0.675PFG Best                   0.850         0.160        0.695Price Futures Group        0.900         0.160        0.700Prime Ag Consultants       0.900         0.160        0.702Prudential Bache           0.705         0.155        0.608Risk Management Commods    0.675         0.110         n/aRJ O'Brien                 0.851         0.182        0.742US Commodities             0.853         0.200         n/aDJ SURVEY: June US Wheat Output Estimates   CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions ofbushels for 2011 U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of June 1,as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture  isscheduled to release updated wheat production at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.                     Average     Range      May      2010                                          USDA    Production All Wheat(9)        1.982   1.905-2.058   2.043    2.208 All Winter (13)     1.395   1.337-1.427   1.424    1.485 Hard Red Winter(14) 0.741   0.690-0.777   0.762    1.018 Soft Red Winter(14) 0.416   0.390-0.440   0.427    0.238 White Winter (13)   0.234   0.225-0.242   0.235    0.229                    All       All                   Wheat     Winter     HRW     SRW    White ABN Amro          2.040     1.427     0.750   0.440   0.237 Allendale         2.023     1.404     0.750   0.424   0.230 Citigroup         1.994     1.375     0.740   0.402   0.233 Doane Advisory    1.957      n/a       n/a     n/a     n/a Farm Futures      1.946     1.349     0.726   0.394   0.229 Informa*           n/a      1.421     0.764   0.422    n/a Kropf & Love      2.000     1.382     0.719   0.427   0.235 Linn Group        1.905      n/a      0.690   0.390   0.225 Macquarie Bank     n/a      1.426     0.777   0.421   0.228 North Am Risk Mgmt n/a      1.397     0.737   0.420   0.240 Newedge            n/a      1.414     0.755   0.422   0.237 PFG Best           n/a      1.400     0.758   0.429   0.237 Price Futures Grp  n/a      1.400     0.740   0.425   0.235 Prudential Bache  1.919     1.337     0.721   0.385   0.232 RJ O'Brien        2.058     1.407     0.745   0.420   0.242 *From traders DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 9    For the week ended Jun 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.    The marketing year for cotton and rice begins Aug 1. The marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1.     For wheat and barley, "this year" is the 2011-2012 marketing year, which began Jun 1, while "Last year" is 2010-2011.     Source: USDA     -a: Includes new sales activity the week May 27-Jun 2 which resulted in a net increase of 477.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes 1815.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from 2010-2011.     -b: Includes new sales activity the week May 27-Jun 2 which resulted in a net increase of 0.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes 0.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from 2010-2011.                   wk's net change          total                   in commitments       commitments          undlvd sales              this year next year   this yr   last yr   this yr   next yr wheat          2293.2-a      0.0    6638.4    4173.2    6495.5       0.0 corn             320.3      29.9   43802.4   45843.1    9931.1    3871.2 soybeans         120.5       0.1   41677.5   38850.4    4186.9    6790.0 soymeal           60.5       0.0    7083.8    8756.6    1267.2     249.5 soyoil            10.1       0.0    1216.9    1203.8     130.7       4.5 upland cotton   -143.2      24.5   14458.2   12032.2    2339.9    5285.1 pima cotton        0.6       0.0     523.7     674.8      72.7     318.9 sorghum           75.5      36.0    3230.7    3257.6     620.7      59.3 barley            1.1-b      0.0       1.1      19.4       1.1       0.0 rice             113.8       0.0    3648.3    3533.7     562.2       3.2 General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday on some short covering and new buying before the USDA reports today.  The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains.  Such rapid progress would imply poor yields in the end.  The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries around the world continue to provide support.  Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops is a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue.  Northern and eastern Great Plains areas should also continue drier and warmer, but will not see completely dry weather as rains could be seen for the next couple of days.  Spring Wheat planting progress is far behind normal, but farmers will get more chances this week to get some planting done.  Farmers are also up against dates to collect on insurance, so not all of the Spring Wheat will likely get planted.  Most of the eastern parts of the Canadian Prairies are just as bad, although some areas to the west are in better shape.  Weather forecasts call for warm and dry weather in the Mid South and southern Midwest which should help the Wheat in those areas at least a little bit.  These areas are now very hot and mostly dry.  World weather is not good for production, either.  Yield losses are expected in France, England, and Germany from drought.  Charts show that the trends are mixed, but are trying to turn down.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation Friday.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should be mostly dry.   Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 732, 706, and 691 July.  Support is at 741, 731, and 723 July, with resistance at 754, 759, and 781 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 835 July.  Support is at 872, 862, and 845 July, with resistance at 898, 922, and 932 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 1012, 1004, and 998 July, and resistance is at 1039, 1055, and 1078 July.

General Comments: Prices were mixed yesterday in consolidation trading.  Weather and poor growing conditions remain important.  Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry now and flushing the crop for initial growth is now a problem.  Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the weekend.  Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans.  Demand remains a problem, and some reports indicate that Milled Rice demand is slow.  However, cash markets in growing areas have been firming up in the last week or two as there is not much offer.  Chart trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast.  Temperatures will average above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1462, 1440, and 1435 July, and resistance is at 1490, 1498, and 1508 July.

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were higher onideas the USDA reports today could be bullish and ideas that some planted area will be lost this year despite the current better Midwest weather.  Warm and drier are likely for today and this weekend, although rains are forecast for tonight and tomorrow.  Farmers will have some chances to plant before some rains return near the end of the week.  Basis levels remain firm in the interior, so the lack of supplies and the domestic demand seem important.  Gulf basis levels remain stable.  Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east as rains return for the rest of this week.  Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats planting, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress and for the planted crops to develop well.  Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season.  Weather remains bad in the southern Great Plains and Wheat has been stressed.  Weather is dry for the Winter Corn crop in northern parts of Brazil, and yield losses are expected.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 743, 737, and 730 July, and resistance is at 754, 759, and 781 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 371, 361, and 358 July, and resistance is at 395, 398, and 410 July.

General Comments:  Soybeans and products closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and on reports of firm cash markets for Soybean Meal.  The weather for this week and this weekend looks warm and mostly dry for most growing areas and there should be a lot of fieldwork that gets done.  However, some rains should hit most Midwest growing areas today, tonight, and tomorrow to bring some delays.  Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice.  Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now.  South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow.  Charts show that trends are mixed for the short term, but the market appears to want to move higher. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is mixed.  Midwest basis levels were steady to firm.    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1390, 1380, and 1367 July, and resistance is at 1419, 1431, and 1442 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 379.00 and 388.00July.  Support is at 366.00, 364.00, and 360.00 July, and resistance is at 377.00, 381.00, and 390.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5770, 5720, and 5690 July, with resistance at 5870, 5940, and 6010 July.

General Comments:  Canola was a higher yesterday on weather forecasts and Canadian Dollar weakness.  Planting progress remains very slow in Canada and rains have been seen in southern areas again.  Rains are forecast for Europe this week, and rains have been reported in Belgium and Germany.  France and England remain dry.  A slow planting pace remains the primary support here.  Cash market demand is said to be steady from domestic channels.  Farm selling was quiet.  There was talk of new export demand.  Traders are watching Europe as well as the Rapeseed crops there are suffering from dry weather.  Palm Oil was lower again today on improved US weather and Chicago price action.  Traders expect generall strong prices due to ideas ofstrong exports, but futures appear to be in a correction mode.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 583.00, 580.00, and 569.00 July, with resistance at 603.00, 606.00, and 612.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3235 and 3120 August.  Support is at 3300, 3280, and 3210 August, with resistance at 3350, 3385, and 3400 August.

Midwest Weather:   Showers and storms today and tomorrow, then drier through the weekend.  Temperatures will average above normal today, then near to below normal.


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