MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little lower yesterday before the USDA reports, but July closed higher.  Traders are getting ready for the reports from USDA that were released this morning and volumes were very slow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of Texas.  The USDA reports showed that the crop continued to deteriorate in the last week, and there is little hope for much improvement this week.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor and trends are generally down.  India said it is starting to offer Cotton at differentials below the futures of New York for the first time in a couple of years.  China cut import duties in a bid to increase supplies in the country over the weekend, and increasing supplies in other countries should keep demand questions in the forefront if prices start to move higher again.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 134.96 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.092 million bales, from 0.087 million yesterday.  ICE said that deliveries today were 27 contracts and now total 569 contracts for the month.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -135,300 bales this year and 35,200 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 3,400 bales this year and 500 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 124.00, 123.00, and 120.00 October, with resistance of 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 October.

6-30-2011 07:28 U.S. cotton acreage highlights-USDA   WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - The following are cotton highlights of theU.S. Agriculture Department's Annual Acreage report estimating plantings andharvest acres.   The data is based on field surveys taken during early June.                 U.S. COTTON CROP                (in million acres)           -------- PLANTED ACRES ---------                USDA      USDA             June 30 *Previous     Trade    Actual            Estimate  Estimate  Estimate      2010 All Cotton   13.725    12.566    13.260    10.974 06/28 10:50 CDT POLL-US 2011 cotton plantings up from USDA March estimate    NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Following are the results ofa survey on potential U.S. 2011 cotton plantings, compiled byThomson Reuters on Tuesday.    The USDA will release its report on potential plantings onThursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).----------------------------------------------------    In million acresAverage trade estimate                13.26Highest trade estimate                14.21Lowest trade estimate                 12.55USDA Ag Outlook forecast for cotton   12.60U.S. 2010 cotton plantings            11.04Carl Anderson, Texas A&M University   12.70Sharon Johnson, Penson Futures        12.70John Flanagan, Flanagan Trading       13.90Mike Stevens, SFS Futures             13.25Jobe Moss, MCM Group                  13.50Keith Brown, Keith Brown & Co.        14.21Jim Nunn, Nunn Cotton Co.             12.55General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday on some selling once again related to good weather in Florida.  A system formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but appears weak and destined for southern Mexico.  It will help Coffee crops there.  Charts show that futures are trying to decide on the next move and could be forming a top.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and is getting beneficial showers.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 180.00 September, with resistance at 190.00, 194.00, and 197.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and Sao Paulo after a surprise frost hit production areas in Parana.  It looks like a freeze damaged the Corn crop in many parts of the state, but Coffee was not hurt nearly as much.  Loss reports, if any, should surface in a couple of days.  Some flowers could also be lost, although trees should be able to form more flowers once the cold air passes through.  Another cold shot is possible early next week.  London was lower on a lack of buying interest after the big rally the day before.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  The potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.622 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 216.87 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and below normal next week.  ICE said that 254 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,426 contracts.  Vietnam expects to produce 18.0 million bags of Coffee in 2011-12, from 17.5 million in 2010-11.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 264.00 and 275.00 September.  Support is at 252.00, 247.00, and 244.00 September, and resistance is at 263.00, 265.00, and 268.00 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2370 September, and resistance is at 2520, 2545, and 2560 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 354.00, 362.00, and 371.00 September.  Support is at 327.00, 326.00, and 320.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 346.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed mixed in New York and mostly lower in London yesterday in consolidation trading.  The rally early in the week came after UNICA said that the Center-South Sugar crush is 134.6 million tons so far this year, down 23% from last year.  The estimate was below trade expectations, and combined with shipping delays created the idea of tight spot supplies in world markets.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India increased exports last week, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower.  However, there are shipment delays there as well as in Brazil.  The market acts as if prices could move higher on the short term tightness and despite ideas of lower Brazil production despite signs of increased production globally, but then could move lower once the production gets into the market. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal this weekend, then cold again next week.  Mexico has produced 5.2 million tons of Sugar so far this year, up 7% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2800 and 3000 October.  Support is at 2630, 2600, and 2560 October, and resistance is at 2730, 2755, and 2800 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 705.00 and 744.00 October.  Support is at 678.00, 666.00, and 662.00 October, and resistance is at 699.00, 712.00, and 720.00 October.

 General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher in New York and in London yesterday as trends turned up on the charts.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin was the best seller, but origin did not sell too much.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low in recent days, but for now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market, although there is less selling pressure from there in the last week.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are up after the price action yesterday. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.744 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month.  Brazil Cocoa arrivals are 79,868 bags this week.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3270 and 3470 September.  Support is at 3070, 3045, and 3030 September, with resistance at 3080, 3170, and 3190 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1920, 1860, and 1830 September, with resistance at 2000, 2010, and 2020 September.

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MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mixed yesterday.  Traders are getting ready for the reports from USDA tomorrow and volumes were very slow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of Texas.  The USDA reports showed that the crop continued to deteriorate in the last week, and there is little hope for much improvement this week.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor and trends are generally down.  India said it is starting to offer Cotton at differentials below the futures of New York for the first time in a couple of years.  China cut import duties in a bid to increase supplies in the country over the weekend, and increasing supplies in other countries should keep demand questions in the forefront if prices start to move higher again.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 135.67 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.087 million bales, from 0.084 million yesterday.  USDA said that its Upland Cotton world market price is 135.72 ct/lb.  ICE said that deliveries today were 47 contracts and now total 542 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 124.00, 123.00, and 120.00 October, with resistance of 130.00, 131.00, and 132.00 October.

06/28 10:50 CDT POLL-US 2011 cotton plantings up from USDA March estimate    NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Following are the results ofa survey on potential U.S. 2011 cotton plantings, compiled byThomson Reuters on Tuesday.    The USDA will release its report on potential plantings onThursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).----------------------------------------------------    In million acresAverage trade estimate                13.26Highest trade estimate                14.21Lowest trade estimate                 12.55USDA Ag Outlook forecast for cotton   12.60U.S. 2010 cotton plantings            11.04Carl Anderson, Texas A&M University   12.70Sharon Johnson, Penson Futures        12.70John Flanagan, Flanagan Trading       13.90Mike Stevens, SFS Futures             13.25Jobe Moss, MCM Group                  13.50Keith Brown, Keith Brown & Co.        14.21Jim Nunn, Nunn Cotton Co.             12.55General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday on some profit taking related to good weather in Florida.  News that a tropical system could be forming in the Atlantic had little effect on prices as the system would stay south of the US, and there is no other organized system of interest out there for now.  A system could form, but appears weak and destined for southern Mexico.  Charts show that futures have started a new leg higher.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 205.00 July.  Support is at 192.00, 188.00, and 187.00 July, with resistance at 200.00, 203.00, and 206.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Jun 28   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).                                2010-2011                         Jun 18        Jun 11      Year Ago  MOVEMENTRetail                  122,613       145,925       227,073Institutional           290,592       411,353       365,833Bulk                  1,699,674     2,545,512     1,606,038Total                 2,112,878     3,102,789     2,198,945Cumulative          115,430,447   113,317,568    92,752,171  IMPORTSForeign                 125,503       192,657       463,449Cumulative           13,032,662    12,907,160    19,247,415  RECEIPTSDomestic                 62,192        38,685        29,788  PACKRetail                  150,684       150,018       147,801Institutional           348,563       313,800       349,804Bulk                  2,761,441     2,878,826     1,958,722Less Reprocessed      1,455,199     1,502,424     1,803,188Net                   1,805,489     1,840,221       653,139Cumulative           79,036,396    77,230,908    82,252,237Inventory            75,249,578    75,388,209   128,585,201General Comments:  Futures were higher in all three markets after a surprise frost hit production areas in Parana.  It looks like a freeze damaged the Corn crop in many parts of the state, but Coffee was not hurt nearly as much.  Loss reports, if any, should surface in a couple of days.  Some flowers could also be lost, although trees should be able to form more flowers once the cold air passes through.  Another night of cold air was forecast for last night, but damage was said to be minor.  Another cold shot is possible early next week  Ideas are that Coffee prices have gone low enough for now.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  However, sources in London say there is good demand for Coffee there although who is the buyer is unknown.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  The potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.623 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 216.63 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal.  ICE said that 10 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,172 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 264.00 and 275.00 September.  Support is at 252.00, 247.00, and 244.00 September, and resistance is at 259.00, 261.00, and 265.00 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2370 September, and resistance is at 2520, 2545, and 2560 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 354.00, 362.00, and 371.00 September.  Support is at 327.00, 326.00, and 320.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 346.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher in New York and lower in London yesterday on the news of lower production once again in Brazil.  UNICA said that the Center-South Sugar crush is 134.6 million tons so far this year, down 23% from last year.  The estimate was below trade expectations, and combined with shipping delays created the idea of tight spot supplies in world markets.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India increased exports last week.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big even if they are dropping in Brazil.  Both countries are said to be behind in shipping Sugar to overseas buyers.  Prices in Thailand are said to be sharply lower this week after India moved to increase exports last week.  The market acts as if prices could move higher on the short term tightness and despite ideas of lower Brazil production despite signs of increased production globally, but then could move lower once the production gets into the market. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2800 and 3000 October.  Support is at 2630, 2600, and 2560 October, and resistance is at 2755, 2800, and 2830 October.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 705.00 and 744.00 October.  Support is at 666.00, 662.00, and 656.00 October, and resistance is at 712.00, 720.00, and 732.00 October.

General Comments:  Futures were slightly higher in New York and in London yesterday in consolidation trading.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin was the best seller.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low in recent days, but for now there is still no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.731 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.243 million tons, up 18.1% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 3010, 2985, and 2950 September, with resistance at 3045, 3060, and 3075 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1805 September, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 2000 September.

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MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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06/23 08:32 CDT IEA: Countries to release 60M barrels of oil    IEA: Countries to release 60M barrels of oil     PARIS (AP) -- The International Energy Agency says 28 countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of crude to the market to offset disruptions prompted by Libya's war. The Paris-based agency said in a statement Thursday that it made the move because the normal increase in demand over the summer "will exacerbate the shortfall further." It also warned that the tight oil market "threatens to undermine the fragile global economic recovery." The countries will make 2 million barrels a day available from their emergency stocks over a period of 30 days.[Related Stories] General Comments:  Futures closed mostly lower yesterday in consolidation trading, but July closed sharply higher as shorts exit from potential delivery positions as deliveries will start tomorrow.  Bad weather in the US remains important, with wire services now running stories about the drought in Texas.  In addition, it has been very hot, with highs of more than 100F or 40C common in the Cotton areas of the state.  Some rain was seen in the state, but not really in major Cotton areas.  Rain has been forecast in Georgia for the rest of this week.  Ideas are that few deliveries can be made as the supplies are not available.  Wire reports that Texas dryland farmers are on the verge of declaring crops as disasters added some support.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, should stay dry.  Demand remains poor.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see light precipitation through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but a few showers are possible over the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 134.94 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.068 million bales, from 0.067 million yesterday.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -1,100 bales this year and -33,100 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 100 bales this year and 1,000 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 173.00 July.  Support is at 157.00, 155.00, and 150.00 July, with resistance of 161.00, 164.00, and 166.00 July.

06/23 07:05a CST  DJ US Cotton Consumption: Stocks And Trade - Jun 23    In running bales. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Year agofigures reflect revised data reported in the 2010 Summary.                                           May 11         Apr 11         May 10                                         4 weeks        4 weeks        4 weeks                                     05/01-05/28    04/03-04/30    05/02-05/29consumption                              269,248        266,460        274,517  thousand pounds                        133,804        132,273        136,530daily average  seasonally adjusted                     13,107         13,244         13,169  non-adjusted                            13,463         13,323         13,574  cotton staple consumptiontotal stocks                           3,571,674      4,794,488      5,121,735  at mills                               129,724        138,362        146,527    thousand pounds                       64,359         68,496         72,607  public storage                       3,441,950      4,656,126      4,975,208-spindle activity (all industries)--  in place (thousands)                       985            982          1,014  active (thousands)                         926            918            955  spindle hours (mln)                        580            579            569General Comments:  Futures closed higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying.  Charts show that futures probably began a new leg higher this week, and July prices are already near initial objectives.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.  Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees.  The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation.  Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season.  Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 196.00 and 205.00 July.  Support is at 188.00, 187.00, and 186.00 July, with resistance at 197.00, 200.00, and 203.00 July.

General Comments:  Futures were a little lower in consolidation trading, with increasing offers from Asia and Brazil still hurting any rally potential.  Washed Coffee exports were big in May, adding to ideas of ample supplies for now.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  Lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.  Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well.  Production for the coming year does not look as bad as originally thought, and this has hurt deferred prices. Chart show that trends are down as futures absorb the increased offers from Asia and Brazil.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.625 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 204.92 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  ICE said that 481 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,586 contracts.  Latin American Washed Coffee exports were 2.84 million bags, up 23% from last year.  Year to date exports are now 18.89 million bags, up 18% from last year.  An official with the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association said that production there might only be 490,000 tons, down 30% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 243.00 September.  Support is at 244.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 257.00, and 259.00 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2250 September.  Support is at 2245, 2230, and 2210 September, and resistance is at 2300, 2370, and 2410 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 270.00 September.  Support is at 317.00, 309.00, and 307.00 September, and resistance is at 321.00, 326.00, and 327.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower in New York and in London yesterday in what appeared to be some speculative and produce r selling.  New York was unable to make new highs for the move and could see some liquidation trading today and tomorrow.  Reports that Sugar is flowing from Brazil despite delays hurt the bulls.  Yields in Brazil remain down from last year, so total Sugar production might not be all that strong.  However, producers were noted sellers yesterday.  Some buying was noted on ideas that the weather in Brazil is not getting better.  Demand has been good as many Middle Eastern countries get ready for Ramadan.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big even if they are dropping a bit in Brazil.  Both countries are said to be behind in shipping Sugar to overseas buyers.  Trends remain up, but it is possible that this part of the up move is running out of steam. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  USDA increased the Sugar import quota for the second time this year last night.  The move is not unexpected and did not support futures much yesterday, but might today.  India has allowed the export of an additional 500,000 tons of Sugar as of today.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2710 October.  Support is at 2560, 2490, and 2460 October, and resistance is at 2630, 2670, and 2755 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 687.00 and 708.00 October.  Support is at 666.00, 656.00, and 643.00 October, and resistance is at 680.00, 697.00, and 712.00 October.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London again yesterday on concerns about crop quality in Western Africa.  In addition, recent wire service reports have noted that many Ivory Coast farmers refuse to return home, so supplies from there might be smaller than originally thought at the beginning of the market year due to labor problems.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low, but for now there is no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.452 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 0 contracts and now total 62 contracts for the month. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2970, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3060, 3080, and 3170 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1870, 1860, and 1830 September, with resistance at 1905, 1940, and 1950 September.

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General Comments:  Futures closed mixed yesterday in consolidation trading.  Futures had moved much lower in the week on the Euro crisis fears, but this week the tone is a little different as bad weather in the US has become more important again.  No rain has been reported in Texas or Georgia growing areas, and little is in the forecast for this week.  Ideas are that few deliveries can be made as the supplies are not available.  Wire reports that Texas dryland farmers are on the verge of declaring crops as disasters added some support.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, has been very dry, and there are no forecasts for much relief, if any, into next week.  Eastern areas have had some precipitation in the last week or so, but it remains too dry in many growing areas of the Southeast, especially in Georgia.  Delta areas are warm and dry, although a few showers are possible during the second half of the week.  Demand remains poor.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get showers and storms today and tomorrow, then will see lighter precipitation through the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but a few showers are possible over the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 135.99 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.065 million bales, from 0.063 million yesterday.  China imported 144,559 tons pf Cotton in May, down 27% from last year.  Calendar year to date imports are now 1.2 million tons, down 11.7% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 142.00 May, with resistance of 150.00, 155.00, and 157.00 May.

06/20 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA   WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. AgricultureDepartment's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent): Week ended                    06/19/11  06/12/11  06/19/10   5-year    COTTON CONDITION  - Excellent                      2         3        13       N/A  - Good                          24        25        49       N/A  - Fair                          35        38        33       N/A  - Poor                          17        17         4       N/A  - Very Poor                     22        17         1       N/A    COTTON SQUARING               21        12        26        2506/20 04:53p CST  DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Jun 20     For Jun 17 long and short positions in contracts.SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT  Total        52,882   1,247    35.1  39,651   1,010    26.3HEDGING  Total        97,643     279    64.9 110,874     244    73.7 GRAND TOTAL:  150,525   1,526   100.0 150,525   1,254   100.0General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying.  The buying pushed futures back to the top end of the recent trading range.  There is not a lot of news to support any big rallies in OJ right now.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.  Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees.  The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation.  Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season.  Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 181.00, 181.00, and 179.00 July, with resistance at 188.00, 191.00, and 194.00 July.

General Comments:  Futures were lower in all markets, with increasing offers from Asia and Brazil hurting any rally potential.  The selling was also due to the world economic problems, especially those in Europe.  Producers are still not selling much, but there seems to be an uptick in offers now as some producers feel they have missed the market.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  Lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.  Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well.  But, the ICO showed that supplies might not be as tight as expected in the coming year.  Chart show that trends are down as futures absorb the increased offers from Asia and Brazil.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.657 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 205.35 ct/lb.  Brazil should see scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 241.00 July.  Support is at 241.00, 236.00, and 234.00 July, and resistance is at 250.00, 256.00, and 257.00 July.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2220 and 2200 July.  Support is at 2225, 2170, and 2110 July, and resistance is at 2280, 2300, and 2410 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 270.00 September.  Support is at 321.00, 317.00, and 309.00 September, and resistance is at 326.00, 327.00, and 337.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed higher in New York and in London.  Ideas of slow processing and shipping delays in Brazil had supported prices.  Yields were down sharply from last year, so total Sugar production might not be all that strong.  Some buying was noted on ideas that the weather in Brazil is not getting better.  Demand has been increasing as many Middle Eastern countries get ready for Ramadan.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big.  However, both countries are said to be behind in shipping Sugar to overseas buyers.  Trends remain up, but it is possible that this part of the up move is running out of steam. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil this weekend, but showers are likely the rest of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  China imported 172,842 tons of Sugar in May, up 48% from last year.  Calendar year to date imports are now 409,673 tons, up 84% from last year.  ABARE in Australia said that Sugar production there will be 3.85 million tons, unchanged from its previous estimate.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2710 October.  Support is at 2580, 2490, and 2460 October, and resistance is at 2670, 2735, and 2800 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 687.00 and 708.00 October.  Support is at 656.00, 643.00, and 636.00 October, and resistance is at 678.00, 697.00, and 712.00 October.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London again yesterday on increasing concerns about crop quality in Western Africa.  In addition, recent wire service reports have noted that many Ivory Coast farmers refuse to return home, so supplies from there might be smaller than originally thought at the beginning of the market year due to labor problems.  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low, but for now there is no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.445 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries today are 6 contracts and now total 46 contracts for the month.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2880, 2870, and 2805 September, with resistance at 2920, 2970, and 3020 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1800 and 1760 September.  Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 September, with resistance at 1830, 1860, and 1870 September.

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MANHÃ refrigerantes comentários Jack Scoville

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General Comments:  Futures closed mostly higher as USDA showed the crop was in poor shape in the US.  July was higher on liquidation before the deliveries start later in the month.  Ideas are that few deliveries can be made as the supplies are not available.  Wire reports that Texas dryland farmers are on the verge of declaring crops as disasters added some support.  Dry weather in Texas growing areas provided support for new crop Cotton futures.  Western Texas, where almost half of all US Cotton is grown, has been very dry, and there are no forecasts for much relief, if any, into next week.  Eastern areas have had some precipitation in the last week or so, but it remains too dry in many growing areas of the Southeast, especially in Georgia.  Delta areas are warm and dry.  Demand remains poor, with more export sales cancellations seen in the USDA reports last week.  Pakistan expects to produce a record 15 million bales of Cotton in 2011-12.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be dry or will see a few showers.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 155.10 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.057 million bales, from 0.055 million yesterday.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 148.00, 146.00, and 143.00 May, with resistance of 157.00, 159.00, and 161.00 May.

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Jun 14     For Jun 10 long and short positions in contracts.SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT  Total        59,681   1,409    39.0  43,528   1,008    28.4HEDGING  Total        93,452     309    61.0 109,605     252    71.6 GRAND TOTAL:  153,133   1,718   100.0 153,133   1,260   100.0General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday in range trading.  No tropical storms are in the forecast.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.  Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees.  The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation.  Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season.  Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 181.00, 179.00, and 177.00 July, with resistance at 187.00, 188.00, and 191.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Jun 14   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).                                2010-2011                         Jun 04        May 28      Year Ago  MOVEMENTRetail                  130,125       177,244       307,719Institutional           295,100       363,823       335,383Bulk                  3,924,036     3,265,613     1,438,385Total                 4,349,262     3,806,680     2,081,486Cumulative          110,214,779   105,865,517    87,408,537  IMPORTSForeign                 751,560       151,085       445,578Cumulative           12,714,503    11,962,943    18,703,701  RECEIPTSDomestic                 60,898        60,434        15,127  PACKRetail                  112,454       154,837       300,637Institutional           295,867       442,360       264,832Bulk                  2,863,760     4,180,275     3,699,660Less Reprocessed      1,326,370     2,358,431     1,798,696Net                   1,945,711     2,419,040     2,466,433Cumulative           75,390,687    73,444,976    80,398,973Inventory            76,393,232    77,926,250   131,573,618General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York, but lower in London.  London moved lower on ideas of good Robusta production coming with harvests starting soon and with good nearby supplies.  New York rallied in response to better than expected economic news.  Producers are still not selling much, but there seems to be an uptick in offers now as some producers feel they have missed the market.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term.  Lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.  Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well.  But, the ICO showed that supplies might not be so tight in the coming year.  Chart show that trends remain mixed for now.  But, overall it seems that futures want to work higher.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are about unchanged today and are about 1.671 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 221.02 ct/lb.  Brazil should see scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to below normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 264.00, 263.00, and 260.00 July, and resistance is at 271.00, 272.00, and 274.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2320, 2220, and 2200 July.  Support is at 2280, 2225, and 2200 July, and resistance is at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 354.00, 371.00, and 408.00 September.  Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 327.00 September, and resistance is at 352.00, 359.00, and 369.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and in London in response to news that Brazil had crushed 5.5% more Sugarcane than last year.  Ideas of slow processing and shipping delays had supported prices.  Yields were down sharply from last year, so total Sugar production might not be all that strong in the end.  There was a lot of rolling noted as NY July goes off the Board at the end of the month.  Some buying was noted on ideas that the weather in Brazil is not getting better.  Demand has been increasing as many Middle Eastern countries get ready for Ramadan.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big.  Trends remain up, but it is possible that this part of the up move is running out of steam. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil this weekend, but showers are likely the rest of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2400 July, and resistance is at 2590, 2600, and 2660 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 692.00, 689.00, and 684.00 August, and resistance is at 706.00, 718.00, and 719.00 August.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and mixed in London .  Ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low, but for now there is no real reason to buy.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are a little higher today and are now about 3.337 million bags.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2950, 2900, and 2860 July, with resistance at 3070, 3100, and 3130 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1810, 1770, and 1740 July, with resistance at 1860, 1890, and 1930 July.

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General Comments:  Futures closed sharply lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation before the long weekend here in the US.  Speculators seem to be selling out of long positions in old crop July, but less so in new crop months due to production problems here and increasingly around the world.  Dry weather in Texas growing areas provided support for new crop Cotton futures as it has become hard to get the Cotton planted.  Western Texas, where a large percentage of all US Cotton is grown, has been very dry, and there are no forecasts for much relief, if any, through this weekend.  Eastern areas have had some precipitation in the last week or so, and more is forecast for this week, but it remains too dry in many growing areas of the Southeast.  And, Delta areas keep getting more rain, although forecasts for drier weather next week are appearing now.  World conditions seem better, although drought is a feature in China and parts of Europe.  Charts show trends are sideways for the short term in July, but up in new crops months.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be dry once showers leave the east today.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 150.52 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.188 million bales, from 0.183 million yesterday.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 3,928 contracts.  USDA said that its Upland Cotton world market price is 144.48 ct/lb.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 150.00, 148.00, and 146.00 May, with resistance of 161.00, 164.00, and 166.00 May.

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower yesterday on some speculative long liquidation.  Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight.  Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation.  Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees.  The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation.  Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season.  Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  ICE said that 0 deliveries were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 516 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 192.00 and 201.00 July.  Support is at 183.00, 179.00, and 177.00 July, with resistance at 188.00, 191.00, and 194.00 July.

General Comments:  Futures were a little higher yesterday in light volume trading.  Speculators were on both sides of the market and it seemed like many were getting ready for the long weekend here in the US.  Producers are still not selling much.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices for the longer term.  Talk of lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia after recent big rains and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy.  The focus remains on tight supplies now and into next year.  Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well.  Chart show that trends are sideways for the short term.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 1.662 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 222.17 ct/lb.  Brazil should be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,632 contracts.  .   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 260.00, 259.00, and 257.00 July, and resistance is at 269.00, 271.00, and 272.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2735 and 2995 July.  Support is at 2540, 2510, and 2500 July, and resistance is at 2625, 2640, and 2670 July.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 325.50, 317.00, and 315.00 September, and resistance is at 340.00, 346.00, and 348.00 September.

General Comments:  Futures closed a little higher in New York and mixed in London yesterday.  Demand has also been increasing and supported some speculative buying last week.  Egypt has announced a tender this week to help support the bull case, and Iran is said to have entered the market for White Sugar.  Bangladesh is also ready to buy, and northern Africa countries other than Egypt are said to be actively looking for Sugar.  The EU will hold tariff free import tenders for much of the Summer due to poor growing conditions there.  They are starting with 200,000 tons now.  There is also talk of shipping delays from Brazil that could create a short term supply crunch.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big.  India continues to offer, although in small amounts for now. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  China will auction 250,000 tons of Sugar into the domestic market from government supplies on Tuesday.  The India June open market quota is 1.65 million tons.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2535 and 2570 July.  Support is at 2220, 2170, and 2140 July, and resistance is at 2280, 2315, and 2340 July.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 691.00 August.  Support is at 635.00, 625.00, and 615.00 August, and resistance is at 655.00, 667.00, and 679.00 August.

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and a little higher in London on speculative buying that was called short covering.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market, but prices have dropped a lot already.  There is talk that much of the reaction to the increased flow of Cocoa from Ivory Coast is already part of the market.  Ivory Coast has started to export and the Cocoa is starting to flow.  Exports were officially started last week and at least one ship has sailed.  More ships are moving to ports in Ivory Coast to load more Cocoa and top get the crop exports flowing in a big way again.  Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns.  The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now.  Trends are mixed for the short term, but still down longer term. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.349 million bags.  ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 116 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2900, 2860, and 2785 July, with resistance at 3070, 3100, and 3130 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1810, 1770, and 1740 July, with resistance at 1850, 1860, and 1890 July.

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