Error in deserializing body of reply message for operation 'Translate'. The maximum string content length quota (8192) has been exceeded while reading XML data. This quota may be increased by changing the MaxStringContentLength property on the XmlDictionaryReaderQuotas object used when creating the XML reader. Line 1, position 9372.
Central Bank policy decisions, or lack of them in some cases, will dominate actions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicked things off today and left rates on hold. Its accompanying statement was perceived as fairly dovish and included the statement that the Bank's "mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy remained appropriate."
This led to a sell-off in the Aussie dollar. Australia may have the highest rates in the G10 but if the RBA has come to the peak of its rate-hiking cycle then this could weigh on the Aussie, especially as other central banks, for example the ECB, start to normalise rates.
Elsewhere, Fed speakers last night were listened to eagerly for their views on the recent downturn in the economic data in the US. Head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengren, who is a non-voter in 2011, said that a slowdown in the pace of the US recovery could affect the timing of the Fed's exit strategy. However, he said it was too soon to make a decisive judgement on the US economy after only one weak reading of payrolls figures. So we are back to data watching. But there are some more hawkish Fed officials than Rosengren who are voting members this year. Philly Fed President Plosser reiterated his stance that he does not personally see the need for more monetary stimulus during a speech last night.
However, the main event will be Fed President Ben Bernanke who is talking at 2045BST this evening. His view is arguably the most important on the Committee and in the past he has expressed a fairly dovish stance on policy. Bernanke is talking on the economic outlook, if he sounds particularly concerned about the economy, especially the unemployment rate, then we could see bond yields drop and the dollar fall like a stone, crushing any hopes for a rebound in the greenback. On the other hand, if Bernanke sounds more relaxed about the data then the dollar may find some support after coming under pressure today. On balance we think the head of the Fed will sound a note of caution but that he will follow Rosengren and say it is too early to postulate on the likelihood of more monetary stimulus.
Risk is staging a bit of a recovery this morning and European equity indices have opened higher. This may be due to expectations of a dovish Bernanke holding open the door to further monetary stimulus, which stocks and commodities in particular reacted so well to during QE2. So a less dovish Bernanke may weigh on risky assets during the Asian session.
Elsewhere, Greece continues to dominate talk about Europe as plans for more financial assistance appear to be on-going. The next major date is 20th June when EU leaders meet to discuss/ agree on further aid to the stricken Southern European nation. Some officials are getting frustrated with Athens' lack of progress. EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn chastised Greece's political parties yesterday for failing to agree on fiscal consolidation measures. In no uncertain terms, Rehn said that if agreement on how to cut its deficit isn't reached then its European partners cannot be expected to provide more funds. He also added that Greece is in default if it doesn't get help from the EU/ECB and IMF.
Serious words from the EU Commissioner. Added to this, the Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that solutions currently being discussed to solve Greece's fiscal problems would not lead to a technical default.
Jucker also noted a word of caution on the strength of the euro and said that the currency bloc should have a designated FX policy. Right now we think this is very unlikely since there are more pressing issues like avoiding a sovereign default to deal with. Also, the ECB has defended its independence fiercely in recent months and will not set interest rates (which can affect the direction of the euro) according to the whims of Europe's political elite. So Juncker's comments are unlikely to deter ECB President Trichet from signalling a July rate hike at this Thursday's meeting.
It seems like the strength of the yen isn't causing immediate intervention risk. Japan's Finance Minister Noda acknowledged the recent strength in the yen and said it was caused by perceived weakness in the US economy. However, he said he was still watching the markets very closely rather than hinting that intervention was imminent.
The pound has staged an impressive recovery after weak data on consumption overnight. The BRC retail sales monitor for May suggests that sales fell 2.1 per cent last month reversing part of April's 5.2 per cent bounce. However, the pound was boosted from weakness in the greenback.
EURGBP also came under pressure, once again hitting resistance at the 0.8940 level. Eurozone retail sales were stronger than expected in April, rising 0.9 per cent on the month relative to 0.3 per cent that was expected, however, the Eurozone may go the way of the UK and see a fall in sales in May after the late timing of Easter and other public holidays helped boost April retail data.
Ahead today, all eyes will be on Bernanke's speech this evening.
Data watch:
EU Portugal publishes its Mid-Year Financial Stability report
IMF / EUI Conference on Fiscal policy, stabilisation and sustainability Final day
16.30BST (1130 ET) EU Nowotny speaking
17.30BST (1230 ET) US Lockhart (FOMC Non Voter) speaking on the US Economic outlook
20.00BST (1500 ET) US Consumer Credit Last 6.0 Exp 5.0 bio
20.45BST (1545 ET) US Bernanke speaking at the International monetary conference
00.50BST (1950 ET) JP Current account Last Y1,679.1 Exp -24.7
00.50BST (1950 ET) JP M2/M3 Last 2.7 / 2.1 Y/Y Exp 2.5 / 2.0 Y/Y
00.50BST (1950 ET) JP Bank loans Last -0.9 Exp -0.7
Don't forget that you can now follow Forex.com's research team on Twitter: http://twitter.com/forexresearch
Best Regards,
Kathleen Brooks| Research Director UK EMEA | FOREX.com
d: +44.(0).20.7429.7924 | f: +44.(0).20.7929.2010 | M: +44 (0) 7919.411.957 | e: kbrooks@forex.com| w: www.forex.com/uk
23 College Hill | 3rd Floor | London EC4R 2RT
Now you can follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/forexresearch
Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that FOREX.com is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. FOREX.com is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, and the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan.
View the original article here
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário