A próxima semana

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The Week Ahead updated June 24, 2011
- Fresh signs of global slowing keep risk down
- All eyes on Greece, again
- IEA emergency reserve release - Transitory or permanent influence on crude oil prices?
- UK data releases evidence a stagnant economic recovery
- Important technical levels to watch in the week ahead
- Key data and events to watch next week

What was behind the slump in risky assets? Apart from the ongoing Greek drama, which we earlier cautioned has been dominating news headlines and obscuring the bigger picture of slowing global outlooks, incoming data and forecasts continue to point to a weaker 2H of 2011. Just this past week, sharper than expected declines in June Eurozone flash PMI's and ZEW surveys point to a slowdown on the continent. In the US, the FOMC lowered its 2011 GDP forecasts from 3.0-3.3% to 2.7-2.9%, while some market forecasters are penciling in an even weaker number around 2.0-2.5%. In the UK, June CBI reported sales plunged from 18 to -2, suggesting the bump from the Royal Wedding was short-lived indeed. And in China, the privately issued HSBC flash June China Manufacturing PMI slipped from 51.6 to 50.1, while the MNI June Business Conditions Survey (also privately issued) fell from 61.22 to 57.76.

While the debate continues over whether the current slowdown is temporary or something more daunting, we're inclined to view it as a more substantial slowdown due to the inability of major economies' governments and central banks to provide fresh stimulus. The Fed continues to view the slowdown as temporary and indicated additional asset purchases (QE3) was not even discussed. The ECB continues to insist on austerity and is poised to hike rates again in July to fend off headline inflation above its target. The RBA seems to have gotten the picture, as the most recent minutes indicated rates are to remain on hold due to global backsliding and risk from the Eurozone debt crisis. And the BOE also appears to have seen a subtle shift, with some MPC members discussing a return to asset purchases. While the recent commodity price declines may potentially lead to a pick-up in consumption and limit the extent of the downturn, we think deleveraging households and employment-challenged consumers in major economies are most likely to show continued spending restraint, preventing any rapid improvement. We think this will bias risk assets further to the downside, and below we highlight key break-down levels we are monitoring.

All eyes on Greece, again

The Greek debt drama is nearing its next critical phase, with the Greek government needing to secure passage of its new deficit-reduction plan, where a vote is now scheduled for June 30. The EU/IMF has made it clear: no package, no more bailout funds. While the governing PASOK party has a 5-vote majority in the Greek parliament, recent defections by several PASOK MP's threaten to derail adoption of the new measures. Should the measure fail to pass, we would expect a spike in risk aversion as markets quickly price-in a likely Greek default within weeks. Assuming the measure does pass, the EUR may experience another relief rally, but we would expect it to be limited to the 1.4450/4500 area due to lingering concerns. The so-called 'voluntary' rollovers of maturing Greek debt, due in the week of July 17-23, may cause the leading credit rating agencies to cut Greek ratings to default levels. If so, that would make Greek government debt ineligible as ECB collateral, effectively cutting off the Greek banking system from further ECB funding, likely rendering it insolvent within days. There is no shortage of risk out there and markets will likely continue to be headline driven.

IEA emergency reserve release - Transitory or permanent influence on crude oil prices?

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) surprised markets by announcing a coordinated 60m barrel crude oil output release from emergency reserves to be implemented in increments of 2m b/d over 30 days commencing next Friday. Both WTI (U.S.) and Brent (UK) crude oil experienced sharp declines to end the week near pre-Libya supply disruption levels around $91.00/bl and $105.00/bl, respectively. While Thursday's plunge lower in crude clearly asserted immediate downside oil price implications, longer term oil price downside is likely to be transitory.

While an additional 2m b/d may very well offset lost Libyan production (estimated to be around 1.3m b/d) for the duration of the program, it fails to confront existing total output imbalances that have accrued since the onset of Libyan unrest- IEA estimates total Libyan production losses to total about -132m barrels. There is also the risk that the IEA's proposed 60m barrel output injection may not be fully absorbed into the gross crude oil supply stream, especially when considering a global backdrop of moderating growth and its detrimental impact on global demand. Additionally, the IEA's goal to buoy global growth prospects via supply induced oil price reductions may actually backfire - exaggerated downside crude oil fluctuations could boost EM demand resulting in higher oil prices.

Ultimately, future chapters in the ongoing 'growth' saga are likely to be the wild cards to longer term oil price determination - any abatement in growth risks would support both WTI and Brent while amplification or compounding growth risks would weigh on crude oil prices. Accordingly, we think near term crude oil prices may see further downside corrections towards $101/bbl in Brent (UK) & $85.00/bbl in WTI (U.S.) on the back of the IEA's surprise output decision alongside oil demand risks stemming from the ongoing Greek debt debate and the recent stream of negative U.S. data surprises. However, we think a still firm underlying fundamental oil market structure may see both crude oil benchmarks resume their primary uptrends upon completion of the IEA's release schedule.

UK data releases evidence a stagnant economic recovery

The sterling declined against the greenback for the fourth straight week as UK economic data releases continued its recent trend of softening. CBI reported sales sharply reversed to -2 in June from 18 in May confirming negative implications from the -1.6% May retail sales reading which evidenced weakening domestic consumption. However, the catalyst of sterling underperformance this week stemmed from the more dovish tone in the June MPC minutes. To start, newest member Ben Broadbent sided with the majority to keep rates steady leaving Weale and Dale on the short end of the 7:2 vote. Adding dovish color to the minutes was the admittance from minority voting members that growth outlooks were softening. This doesn't bode well for a sustained UK economic recovery as even more hawkish members seem to be second guessing the current environment. The stream of negative data seems to be spilling over - May Jobless Claims rose 19.6 and April Average Weekly Earnings evidenced stagnant income growth of 1.8%. With wage growth considered by many MPC members as being a key determinant in shifting policy direction, it seems accommodative BoE policy may be here to stay for a while longer.

Further denting prospects for a healthy recovery in the UK economy and its currency is its sensitivity to negative risk events. While risk sentiment has been supported in anticipation of Papandreou's successful confidence vote, the Greek debt drama is likely to drag on a while longer. Total UK bank exposure to Greek debt is approximated to be around $8B as of Q4 '10 (according to BIS estimates), trailing just Germany & France and almost double that of total U.S. exposure. So while recent Greece developments are encouraging, any future hiccups in the EZ periphery are likely to have negative ripple effects on the UK economy and subsequently GBP.

The technical outlook in GBP/USD is consistent with recent UK data deterioration and suggests medium term sterling weakness may be in store. GBP/USD posted multiple daily closes below primary uptrend support (from the 2010 lows) as well as below the neckline of a H&S top formation which projects a measured move objective towards the key 1.5350 horizontal pivot.

Important technical levels to watch in the week ahead

Over the past week the greenback has seen gains versus other G10 counterparties with exception to the Swiss Franc and Norwegian Krone. The USD's rise was sparked by risk aversion flows seen in equity, treasury and commodity markets. This can be attributed to two primary factors that occurred this week 1) Ben Bernanke's FOMC testimony on Wednesday whereby he stated the U.S. economy is recovering at a "moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly" and 2) On Thursday the International Energy Agency announced they would release 2 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve a day for the next 30 days. Together, the slowdown in the economy and lower oil prices eased inflationary fears and thus was seen as boon for the buck.

USD Index: Technical developments this week suggest the greenback's gains may continue. Currently, it is bumping up against long-term trendline resistance, drawn from the June 2010 highs, as well as the 100-day sma - both of which come in around 75.60/65. Should this level be surpassed next week, the dollar may see further gains towards the 23.6% retracement near 76.45/50 ahead of the 200-day sma around 77.20/25. However, if a setback occurs look for the 55-day sma by 74.65/70 and then trendline support, drawn from the May 2011 lows, near 74.00 to be supportive.

EUR/USD: The technical outlook has decidedly shifted to the downside after failing up against the 55-day sma earlier in the week around 1.4400. Even today's gains on the back of the much better than expected German IFO numbers proved unsustainable. Now the Euro looks poised to retest the 1.40 handle prior to the end of the month. Fundamentally, the EU peripheral debt problem is likely to persist as long as Europe is unable to find a suitable funding source. Thus, technicals could take center stage next week. We are watching for a potential break of trendline support around 1.4110/20 (drawn from May 2011 lows) to spark further declines. The next credible levels to watch are the psychologically significant 1.40 level and then the 200-day sma around 1.3860/65.

GBP/USD: Cable has posted multiple daily closes below primary uptrend support from the 2010 lows and while doing so formed a Head & Shoulders top. Earlier this week it failed up against a multitude of key technical levels converging between 1.6245/65 - Retest of broken long-term trendline support, 100-day sma, 200-hour sma and 38.2% retracement (1.6545/50 to 1.6075/80 decline), which ultimately proved to be the nail in the coffin. The daily close below the H&S neckline support projects a measured move objective of about 750 pips towards the key 1.53-5400 horizontal pivot (Sept. and Dec. 2010 prior lows). Going forward, also look for the 200-day sma to prove resistance around 1.6030/35 in the near-term.

XAU/USD: It broke below long-term trendline support around $1527 earlier this week (connect January, March, May & June 2011 lows) and then retested this level over the past 24 hours and failed. There were a few signs the impending sell-off in Gold was about to occur as we spotted an Evening Doji Star formation which is one of the strongest bearish reversal signals in the market - This formation is characterized by the continuation of a bullish trend, which is then followed by a Doji (reflecting uncertainty in the market) and then the trend reversal is confirmed with a sell-off. Typically, the larger a move down is on day-three, the stronger the reversal signal. Furthermore, coinciding this bearish candlestick formation was a Negative Divergence between gold and RSI on the daily chart, whereby gold made a higher high and RSI made a lower high. Today's decline decisively took out the 50-day sma around $1521 - A level we have not been below since mid-February, and the daily/weekly close below may lead others to take action next week. Since reaffirming its trend higher at the beginning of 2009, gold's 150-day sma has limited the downside on multiple attempts and currently resides around $1438 and could be a reasonable longer-term objective should the psychologically significant $1500 level give way.

S&P500: Appears to be running out of upward momentum as the U.S. economic recovery struggles in a soft-patch. This week the S&P formed a Bearish Harami followed by a Hanging Man candlestick pattern - Both of which portray a rough road ahead. Furthermore, the 200-day sma has provided support on the last two attempts over the past week and a half, however it may be vulnerable next week as it rises to 1264 on Monday. Should this level give way, the 2011 lows near 1250 could come under pressure. Typically, the minimum correction technicians target is the 38.2% retracement - This is currently located at 1233 (drawn from July 2010 low to May 2011 high), which ultimately seems reasonable should risk aversion flows continue to pick up over the coming weeks (keep your eye on $90 in WTI next week as a potential trigger).

Key data and events to watch in the week ahead

United States: Monday - May Personal Income & Spending, PCE Deflator, Jun. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks Tuesday - Apr. S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Jun. Consumer Confidence, Jun. Richmond Fed Manf. Index, Fed's Fisher Speaks Wednesday - May Pending Home Sales, Fed's Raskin Speaks Thursday - Weekly Jobless Claims, Jun. Chicago PMI Friday - Jun. Final U. of Michigan Confidence, May Construction Spending, Jun. ISM Manufacturing, Jun. Vehicle Sales

Eurozone: Tuesday - German July GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, May Import Price Index, German Jun. Prelim CPI, ECB's Trichet Speaks Wednesday - EZ Jun. Business Climate, EZ June Confidence Surveys Thursday - German May Retail Sales, ECB's Trichet Speaks, German Jun. Unemployment Change & Rate, EZ May CPI, ECB's Coeve Speaks Friday - EZ May Unemployment Rate, German & EZ Jun. Final Manufacturing PMI

United Kingdom: Tuesday - 1Q Final GDP, Current Account, Total Business Investment, BOE's King, Tucker, Dale, Posen, Miles speak in London Wednesday - Apr. Index of Services, May Net Lending on Dwellings Thursday - Jun. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Friday - Jun. Manufacturing PMI

Japan: Tuesday - May Retail Trade Wednesday - May Prelim Industrial Production Thursday - May Vehicle Production, Construction Orders, Housing Starts Friday - May Jobless Rate, Jun Tokyo CPI, May National CPI, 2Q Tankan Survey

Canada: Wednesday - May CPI, Apr. Teranet/National Bank HPI Thursday - Apr. GDP

Australia & New Zealand: Monday - NZ May Trade Balance Tuesday - RBA's Debelle Speaks Thursday - NZ May Building Permits, AU May Job Vacancies, Jun. NBNZ Activity Outlook & Business Confidence, AU May Private Sector Credit Friday - AU Jun. RBA Commodity Price Index, May HIA New Home Sales

China: Monday - May Industrial Profits Friday -Jun. Manufacturing PMI

Disclaimer:   The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that FOREX.com is not rendering investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. FOREX.com is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) in Australia, and the Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan.

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Slides para petróleo e sua pior semana em preocupações sobre a Grécia

Os preços do petróleo caiu segunda-feira de manhã, estendendo as perdas de sexta-feira, quando terminou em maior declínio downloads em seis semanas como o negativo de perspectivas económicas são dominantes nos mercados financeiros e a crise da dívida Europeia atingiu os preços do petróleo para seu nível mais baixo em quatro meses.

O óleo é ainda para baixo desde a semana passada, afetados por medos que domina o mercado sobre a crise da dívida soberana de Grécia e seus efeitos negativos sobre a recuperação da economia global, especialmente com a acumulação de especulação para a Grécia para o valor padrão.

Crude oil futures caiu 1,7% estender as perdas na semana passada, depois de Ministros das Finanças europeus discordam sobre a entrega da quinta parcela de $ ano passado ajuda 110 bilhões; onde o desacordo poderia solicitar pagamento de 12 mil milhões de euros até meados de julho, e alguns sugeriram fornecido apenas o empréstimo de 6 mil milhões de euros.

Medos são ainda dominam a crise do mercado de dívida além para a turbulência política e os enormes protestos na Grécia porque o novo anunciou medidas de austeridade, onde Papandreou Espero agora que o Parlamento vai ajudar o governo com o voto de confiança para passar o pacote de austeridade.

PM grego George Papandreou, na sexta-feira nomeou um novo ministro das finanças nas tentativas em confiança. Papandreou é esperado para fazer face ao Parlamento para o voto de confiança, que é esperado algum tempo terça-feira passada, onde o voto de confiança é necessário para que o governo possa aplicar novas medidas de austeridade que são necessárias para adquirir os fundos do plano de emergência da UE e do FMI e abrir o caminho para um novo plano de resgate.

Futuros do petróleo bruto caiu na semana passada 6,3% para fechar em US $ 93. 1 por barril, que é considerado o mais baixo em 18 meses. Sexta-feira, o índice CRB/RJ para mercadorias registado uma diminuição de 1,41 pontos para acabar com a 335.48, e S & P GSCI fechou a semana passada 669.11 ponto depois diminuiu 5,69 pontos.

Barril de petróleo futuro para julho de liquidação é aberta para o barril de US $92.76 do recorde intraday para US $93.02 uma arma e um mínimo de equipamentos US $ por barril e é atualmente comércio around US $91,37 por barril, enquanto agosto contratos mais ativo abriu hoje em r $93.18 de gravação mais elevada para US $93.38 e do mais baixo para US $91.50 e negociado atualmente cerca de US $91.99.

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Forex: Dólar Postado mix de resultados para a semana

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - terminado o dólar está em causa a semana com misturar resultados em toda a Comissão a aversão ao risco, a Grécia e os sinais de desaceleração do crescimento nos Estados Unidos.

O EUR/USD está completo pairando em torno 1,4300, depois de uma forte recuperação sexta-feira enviar o Euro ao largo da Costa de semanal ao redor os baixos 1.4070 e superiores em todas as áreas. Esperanças de um acordo sobre a nova assistência financeira para a Grécia apoiou o Euro sexta-feira, mas subsistem algumas preocupações.

"O euro sofreu recentemente como a grega crise intensificou-se." Como há muito tempo o apetite por risco é baixo, esperamos um pouco de apoio para o euro. No entanto, como as taxas mais altas esperado à aproximação do BCE de julho, esperamos atenção renovada sobre as taxas de relativas. Portanto, podemos ainda ver para EUR/USD no Verão. Uma solução - ou seja, um novo bail out pacote para a Grécia - também deve ser favorável ao euro, "escrito um analista de forma Danske Bank em seu relatório semanal".

A técnica, a equipe Talking - Forex .com diz que níveis de suporte são considerados inferiores do Bollinger, 1.4073, 1.3968 e, em seguida, a Agenda 21. "Em contraste, níveis de resistência são vistos na linha de 21DMA em 1,4343 e, em seguida, na linha de 10DMA para 1.4407."

Dólar também subiu contra a libra esterlina, em uma base semanal, mas o GBP/USD conseguiu assumir em Maio e mark 1.6000 de fundo. Ele foi o terceiro declínio downloads em uma linha para o cabo.

USD/JPY subiram no início da semana, mas não a interrupção nos anos, enfraqueceu-se e termina em depressão, mal acima 80,00. O iene estava entre os mais bem sucedidos da semana no mercado, suportado por um forte aumento em títulos do Tesouro e o declínio das existências.

O dólar aumentou entre moedas de commodities versus o Kiwi e o canadense mas dólar caiu versus o Aussie.

As visões e opiniões aqui expressas são as visões e opiniões do autor e não reflectem necessariamente as da NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..

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Apetite de risco excluído antes de dados chaves devido a eventos desta semana

Fundamentos de Forex diárias. Escrito por AC-mercados. Jun 13 11 09: 02 GMT

Depois de terminar a semana passada deprimido modo sentido de risco levou outra knock esta manhã depois de relatórios que um tremor de magnitude 6. 0 abalou Christchurch Nova Zelândia que causou não especificado danos do centro da cidade. Naturalmente, NZDUSD mergulhou a baixos níveis de 0.8215 0.8100. com o preço de ação agravada por férias australiana e geralmente de baixa liquidez. Os dados de calendário para as principais empresas são incrivelmente leves hoje, com a maior parte da Europa, como o Office esta manhã. No entanto, o resto da semana promete o banco do Japão e o SNB mais recentes decisões de taxas de juro e alguns dos principais dados da inflação do Reino Unido e da Europa. Em primeiro lugar, o banco do Japão é esperado para manter as taxas de juros em níveis muito baixos entre 0% e 0,10%. mas após a queda inesperada nas ordens de fábrica, alguns analistas prevêem que o Banco Central vai optar por abrir um outro pedaço de compras de ativos - um movimento que vai colocar mais pressão sobre os rendimentos. O que isso significa para a moeda é menos clara, como o JPY desafiado longo dos argumentos clássicos para porque tal acção deve causar moeda de fraqueza muscular; e USDJPY permanece em níveis historicamente baixos de aproximadamente 80. 00. Um outro destaque da semana serão que os dados mais recentes do consumidor de preço UK para não podem também ser publicada na terça-feira. Consenso é a busca de manchete figura CPI permaneça inalterada em 4,5% a cada ano. cerca de 2,5% superior ao objectivo do BoE e 1,5% acima do limiar alto definido pelo Conselho do Tesouro. No entanto, até agora o MPC se recusou a mover as taxas de juro de UK para a inflação alta searingly, preferindo concentrar-se sobre a incerteza atual de crescimento, e a crença de que o futuro ICC imprime vai começar no Outono. Acreditamos que é uma estratégia perigosa e que tomadores de decisão em breve começará a perder credibilidade se eles não agiram rapidamente sobre as expectativas de inflação. Pode, entretanto, o Reino Unido as retalhistas serão publicadas na quinta-feira. Quinta-feira, os mercados vão esperar mais recente decisão da taxa de juro SNB; e enquanto não há nenhuma expectativa de uma alteração de taxa (que atualmente estão em 0,25%), será interessante ver como o Banco Central responde com a força recente do CHF e o alarmante mergulhar IPC 0,0% na semana passada. Obviamente, os tomadores de decisão estarão dispostos a evitar o cenário de deflação, assim que a força do franco nos últimos meses têm sido uma coisa boa. No entanto, para intervir no mercado cambial (que, vimos que da última vez, provou ser um exercício caro e finalmente futile), há muito pouco que pode ser feito para reverter a tendência atual da força CHF. No entanto, acreditamos que o SNB vai querer ver atuando um pouco, portanto, esperar uma intervenção verbal nesta semana.

23: 01 Pode equilibrar o preço casa GBP RICS, %; Exp: -20, prev: -21

EurUsd 11-06-10: como esperávamos-lo no relatório ontem, EURUSD caiu com o apoio da 1.4557 (ativação assim uma cabeça de terreno e ombros no gráfico de hora em hora) e agora está em queda livre em direcção a nível 1.4450. Como um lembrete, o destino desta cabeça e ombros é aproximadamente 1.4425, e tendo em conta os progressos notáveis do padrão durante o dia, estamos confiantes em trazer a nossa parada até nossa entrada 1.4555 - garantindo assim uma aposta sem risco de aqui. Apenas antes de suporte de nosso destino é 1.4453 (baixa de 3 de Junho), mas nós deve estourar desta marca, níveis futuros permanecem no 1.4309 (1 de Junho baixo), 1.4258 (30 pode baixa) e 1.4128 (100-dias movendo-se em média). Esperar vendedores acima para 1.4557 (decote de padrão h & S), 1.4653 (alta ontem) e 1.4696 (7 de Junho alta).

GbpUsd 11-06-10: colapso do EURUSD recebeu ontem em curso, GBPUSD também sofreu um rumo para o pior e vimos agora a tendência de alta do canal ventilado muito curto prazo e a mergulhar a par de 1.6250. Hoje é um suporte mais próximo no 1.6274 (26 de Maio baixo), 1.6242 (100-dias movendo-se em média), 1.6133 (25 de Maio baixa) e, em seguida, suporte crítico 1.6060 (24 de Maio low). Entretanto a resistência chave sobe para 1.6383 (alta hoje), 1.6472 (alta terça-feira), seguido de perto por 1.6498 (1 4 de Junho) e 1.6574 (de Maio alta).

UsdJpy 11-06-10: USDJPY foi capaz de derivar hoje para um pouco mais elevado que o USD reforçada em todas as áreas. o reposicionamento das Cúpulas das 80.46 e gerenciamento para esculpir um happer candlestick Howser no gráfico diário. A presença de happer o chefe Howser sugere que os touros recuperaram a posição dominante, e, portanto, que mais ascendentes dinâmica podem ser sobre a forma como esta sessão, no entanto, acreditamos que qualquer reunião seria simplesmente uma jogada corretiva na maior tendência para a baixa. Níveis de resistência próximas acima são considerados como 80.46 (alta ontem), 81 (3 de Junho), 81,33 (2 de Junho), 81.78 (31 de maio), 82.79 (27 de abril), 83.27 (18 Abr alta) e 83,79 (15 Abr alta). Nosso cenário de referência que o monte par não é mais tarde que 80, 70-81, 00 (o que seria uma grande área de entrada curta), e, em seguida, voltamos a nossa atenção para o lado negativo. Suporta o mais próximo é vista em 79.57 (5 de Maio low), (17 de Março baixa) e bovina antes do registro de baixa 76.40.

UsdChf 11-06-10: The USD apreciado um pequeno ressurgimento contra a maioria de seus colegas ontem, e o CHF não era nenhuma exceção; Sweep atinge as alturas de 0.8443 e o restante alta desde. Até ontem à tarde tinha jogado um sinalizador de tendência bearish sobre a tabela horária que começou em quebra em 0.8415, mas a nosso ver, esta última onda agora rejeitou este esquema e saímos a posição de uma perda insignificante. Em seguida, os níveis de superestrutura 0.8453 stand (2 de Junho), 0.8547 (31 de maio) e 0.8595 (hauts de rebote visto Maio 27). Durante este tempo, apoiantes são esperados para 0.8328 (baixa hoje), 0.8397 (depressões de 6 e 7 de Junho) e, em seguida, suporta puramente psicológicos como 0.8200 0.8300 etc.

S: Strong, m: menor, t: linha de tendência, k. Keylevel, p: Pivot

ACM FOREX

Aviso: Este relatório foi elaborado por mercados AC (estes ACM) e aparece apenas para efeitos de informação e não deve ser interpretado como um convite ou uma oferta para comprar ou vender qualquer moeda ou qualquer outro instrumento financeiro. As opiniões expressas neste relatório podem ser sujeitas a alterações sem aviso prévio e pode diferir ou contrária às opiniões expressas pelos lojistas em ACM o profissional a qualquer momento. ACM está sob nenhuma obrigação de atualizar ou manter as informações a seguir, o relatório não deve ser considerado por destinatários como um substituto para o exercício de seu próprio julgamento.

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Forex - risco antes excluídos apetite para dados-chave porque eventos desta semana

Depois de terminar a semana passada deprimido modo sentido de risco levou outra knock esta manhã depois de relatórios que um tremor de magnitude 6. 0 abalou Christchurch Nova Zelândia que causou não especificado danos do centro da cidade. Naturalmente, NZDUSD mergulhou a baixos níveis de 0.8215 0.8100. com o preço de ação agravada por férias australiana e geralmente de baixa liquidez. Os dados de calendário para as principais empresas são incrivelmente leves hoje, com a maior parte da Europa, como o Office esta manhã. No entanto, o resto da semana promete o banco do Japão e o SNB mais recentes decisões de taxas de juro e alguns dos principais dados da inflação do Reino Unido e da Europa. Em primeiro lugar, o banco do Japão é esperado para manter as taxas de juros em níveis muito baixos entre 0% e 0,10%. mas após a queda inesperada nas ordens de fábrica, alguns analistas prevêem que o Banco Central vai optar por abrir um outro pedaço de compras de ativos - um gesto que vai colocar mais pressão sobre os rendimentos. O que isso significa para a moeda é menos clara, como o JPY desafiado longo dos argumentos clássicos para porque tal acção deve causar moeda de fraqueza muscular; e USDJPY permanece em níveis historicamente baixos de aproximadamente 80. 00. Um outro destaque da semana serão que os dados mais recentes do consumidor de preço UK para não podem também ser publicada na terça-feira. Consenso é a busca de manchete figura CPI permaneça inalterada em 4,5% a cada ano. cerca de 2,5% superior ao objectivo do BoE e 1,5% acima do limiar alto definido pelo Conselho do Tesouro. No entanto, até agora o MPC se recusou a mover as taxas de juro de UK para a inflação alta searingly, preferindo concentrar-se sobre a incerteza atual de crescimento, e a crença de que o futuro ICC imprime vai começar no Outono. Acreditamos que é uma estratégia perigosa e que tomadores de decisão em breve começará a perder credibilidade se eles não agiram rapidamente sobre as expectativas de inflação. Pode, entretanto, o Reino Unido as retalhistas serão publicadas na quinta-feira. Quinta-feira, os mercados vão esperar mais recente decisão da taxa de juro SNB; e enquanto não há nenhuma expectativa de uma alteração de taxa (que atualmente estão em 0,25%), será interessante ver como o Banco Central responde com a força recente do CHF e o alarmante mergulhar IPC 0,0% na semana passada. Obviamente, os tomadores de decisão estarão dispostos a evitar o cenário de deflação, assim que a força do franco nos últimos meses têm sido uma coisa boa. No entanto, para intervir no mercado cambial (que, vimos que da última vez, provou ser um exercício caro e finalmente futile), há muito pouco que pode ser feito para reverter a tendência atual da força CHF. No entanto, acreditamos que o SNB vai querer ver atuando um pouco, portanto, esperar uma intervenção verbal nesta semana.

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O RBA kick off uma semana de reuniões do Banco Central

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Central Bank policy decisions, or lack of them in some cases, will dominate actions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicked things off today and left rates on hold. Its accompanying statement was perceived as fairly dovish and included the statement that the Bank's "mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy remained appropriate."

This led to a sell-off in the Aussie dollar. Australia may have the highest rates in the G10 but if the RBA has come to the peak of its rate-hiking cycle then this could weigh on the Aussie, especially as other central banks, for example the ECB, start to normalise rates.

Elsewhere, Fed speakers last night were listened to eagerly for their views on the recent downturn in the economic data in the US. Head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengren, who is a non-voter in 2011, said that a slowdown in the pace of the US recovery could affect the timing of the Fed's exit strategy. However, he said it was too soon to make a decisive judgement on the US economy after only one weak reading of payrolls figures. So we are back to data watching. But there are some more hawkish Fed officials than Rosengren who are voting members this year. Philly Fed President Plosser reiterated his stance that he does not personally see the need for more monetary stimulus during a speech last night.

However, the main event will be Fed President Ben Bernanke who is talking at 2045BST this evening. His view is arguably the most important on the Committee and in the past he has expressed a fairly dovish stance on policy. Bernanke is talking on the economic outlook, if he sounds particularly concerned about the economy, especially the unemployment rate, then we could see bond yields drop and the dollar fall like a stone, crushing any hopes for a rebound in the greenback. On the other hand, if Bernanke sounds more relaxed about the data then the dollar may find some support after coming under pressure today. On balance we think the head of the Fed will sound a note of caution but that he will follow Rosengren and say it is too early to postulate on the likelihood of more monetary stimulus.

Risk is staging a bit of a recovery this morning and European equity indices have opened higher. This may be due to expectations of a dovish Bernanke holding open the door to further monetary stimulus, which stocks and commodities in particular reacted so well to during QE2. So a less dovish Bernanke may weigh on risky assets during the Asian session.

Elsewhere, Greece continues to dominate talk about Europe as plans for more financial assistance appear to be on-going. The next major date is 20th June when EU leaders meet to discuss/ agree on further aid to the stricken Southern European nation. Some officials are getting frustrated with Athens' lack of progress. EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn chastised Greece's political parties yesterday for failing to agree on fiscal consolidation measures. In no uncertain terms, Rehn said that if agreement on how to cut its deficit isn't reached then its European partners cannot be expected to provide more funds. He also added that Greece is in default if it doesn't get help from the EU/ECB and IMF.

Serious words from the EU Commissioner. Added to this, the Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that solutions currently being discussed to solve Greece's fiscal problems would not lead to a technical default.

Jucker also noted a word of caution on the strength of the euro and said that the currency bloc should have a designated FX policy. Right now we think this is very unlikely since there are more pressing issues like avoiding a sovereign default to deal with. Also, the ECB has defended its independence fiercely in recent months and will not set interest rates (which can affect the direction of the euro) according to the whims of Europe's political elite. So Juncker's comments are unlikely to deter ECB President Trichet from signalling a July rate hike at this Thursday's meeting.

It seems like the strength of the yen isn't causing immediate intervention risk. Japan's Finance Minister Noda acknowledged the recent strength in the yen and said it was caused by perceived weakness in the US economy. However, he said he was still watching the markets very closely rather than hinting that intervention was imminent.

The pound has staged an impressive recovery after weak data on consumption overnight. The BRC retail sales monitor for May suggests that sales fell 2.1 per cent last month reversing part of April's 5.2 per cent bounce. However, the pound was boosted from weakness in the greenback.

EURGBP also came under pressure, once again hitting resistance at the 0.8940 level. Eurozone retail sales were stronger than expected in April, rising 0.9 per cent on the month relative to 0.3 per cent that was expected, however, the Eurozone may go the way of the UK and see a fall in sales in May after the late timing of Easter and other public holidays helped boost April retail data.

Ahead today, all eyes will be on Bernanke's speech this evening.

Data watch:
EU Portugal publishes its Mid-Year Financial Stability report
IMF / EUI Conference on Fiscal policy, stabilisation and sustainability Final day
16.30BST (1130 ET) EU Nowotny speaking
17.30BST (1230 ET) US Lockhart (FOMC Non Voter) speaking on the US Economic outlook
20.00BST (1500 ET) US Consumer Credit Last 6.0 Exp 5.0 bio
20.45BST (1545 ET) US Bernanke speaking at the International monetary conference
00.50BST (1950 ET) JP Current account Last Y1,679.1 Exp -24.7
00.50BST (1950 ET) JP M2/M3 Last 2.7 / 2.1 Y/Y Exp 2.5 / 2.0 Y/Y
00.50BST (1950 ET) JP Bank loans Last -0.9 Exp -0.7

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Forex: USD/JPY termina a semana abaixo 81,00

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - a dupla passou a maior parte do comércio semana num intervalo entre 81.30 e 82,20 até quinta-feira, quando o dólar quebrou um monte de maus indicadores macroeconómicos continua U.S. come sexta-feira, enviando USD/JPY Sul apesar da Fitch rebaixada japonês outlook de crédito.

Cruz caiu tão baixa quanto 80.70 sexta-feira, striking preço mais baixo em quase 2 semanas antes de rebotes ligeiramente para fechar o dia em torno de 80.85, exibindo a segunda perda straight diária, hoje para 0,52%.

USD/JPY também é estreita com perdas pela primeira vez em 3 semanas, depois de ter descartado 90 pips ou 1,11% desde segunda-feira.

As visões e opiniões aqui expressas são as visões e opiniões do autor e não reflectem necessariamente as da NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..

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Óleo DEAS tranquila de estendido nos fim de semana de férias

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Follow my intraday comments on Twitter @dacenergy.

NOTE: I will not be publishing the Energy Market Analysis on Monday, May 30 in observance of Memorial Day in the US
Dominick

Friday Morning May 27, 2011

Quote of the Day
Each man is a hero and an oracle to somebody.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

As I and many other Americans get ready to celebrate the long Memorial Day holiday weekend in the US amid the many parades honoring our soldiers, barbeques and parties I am writing today's newsletter with questions rather than answers. This has been a tumultuous month for most all risk asset markets with oil on the top of the list of volatility, huge moves and many, many intraday reversals. Uncertainty as to where oil prices will go in the short and longer term is still not easily predicted. Although I have been mostly neutral over the last week or so the market is starting to feel like it is getting ready to make a move. The market sentiment is forming, the big traders are beginning to stake out a position (like GS) so it is a good time to sit back and analyze as we get ready to hit the ground running next week.

Let's start with some of the reasons that have been supporting higher prices (not in any special order and certainly not all inclusive).

 Just about all of Wall Street has come out over the last week or so predicting higher prices for oil going forward. Some of the bullish WS companies are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanly, JP Morgan., Barclays to name just a few. In addition several of them like GS are also bullish on most raw materials once again while being bearish on eh USD (GS again). Unrest in MENA has continued with fighting still raging on in Libya. In Yemen there is the risk of a tribal civil war unless Saleh leaves. Just today there are reports of the Yemini air force bombing armed tribesmen. Syria is still experiencing protests. At the moment there is no imminent risk of losing any additional supply from the area but the potential is still there for future disruptions in supply. Loading/production problems continue in the North Sea with several cargoes delayed and other completely dropped from the June loading program. The loss of some North Sea oil added to the loss of Libyan oil is slowly starting to impact the overall supply & demand balances and thus the resultant inventory levels. China is experiencing a huge drought and as such has lost a noticeable amount of hydroelectric power generating capacity. This has resulted in an increased need for imports of diesel fuel to make up some of the difference. The drought is projected to continue and as such we can expect China to continue to import above normal levels of diesel fuel for the foreseeable future. Diesel fuel inventories in both the US and Europe have been declining during a period of time when distillate fuel in general is already in a building mode for the upcoming winter heating season. There is a growing view that the loss of Libyan oil will continue for an extended period of time and over time this will impact global inventories (reducing them) thus be a positive for oil prices.

Now let's look at some of the reasons that have been supporting lower prices (not in any special order and certainly not all inclusive).

 Although I have listed Libya on the support side above Reuters is just reporting that Russia now believes Gaddafi has lost his legitimacy and Moscow is prepared to mediate to facilitate his departure. This is a big shift from Russia and one that could be telling. As I have said on numerous occasions the oil risk from Libya is a Gaddafi exit which will likely result in oil prices falling by $5 to $10/bbl if he finally agrees to go. Whether or not the decline will be sustainable will be dependent on if a Gaddafi exit does result in peace in Libya and oil beginning to flow. Global economic growth is slowing in both the emerging market world due to monetary tightening as well as the advanced economy world even though countries like the US are still stimulating their economy. Yesterday's 1.8% first quarter US GDP certainly does not look like an economy that is surging ahead in fact the current growth rates is well below where this economy has normally been at this point in an economic recovery. The EU sovereign debt issues are getting worse not better and have been putting pressure on the euro once again. This is resulting in budget and austerity measures in all of the PIIGS while the IMF just today indicated that they doubt they will give Greece the next rate from the general rescue fund. The above evolving situation in the EU points to further euro weakness which will eventually translate to US dollar strength as a safe haven and thus turn out to be negative for oil on two fronts. First a weak euro/strong USD scenario is simply a negative for oil prices as the inverse correlation between the USD direction and oil prices is still very high and widely followed. Second with more austerity measure likely to evolve in the EU their economic growth is likely to slow even further reducing their overall oil consumption and thus another negative for oil prices going forward. Not all... but the majority of the macroeconomic data for the US has been negative and pointing to further slowing of the number one economy and the number one oil consumer in the world. Although the US has certainly not been the oil consumption growth engine of the world (that would be China) the oil risk coming from the US is a slowing and a resultant decline in consumption and thus a negative for oil prices. Higher prices have started to take a toll on US gasoline consumption as elasticity of demand has set in. A recent poll indicated that about 63% of American consumers said they would change their driving habit if retail gasoline prices hit $4/gal. They have already been at that level and even with the recent retracement in oil prices the current national average is only about $0.19/gal below the $4/gal threshold. Any further recovery in oil prices off of the lows is likely to result in a continuation of the US consumer changing their driving habits. With inflation still raging ahead the emerging market world led by China and India are going to continue to tighten their high flying economies and this tightening is eventually going to result in a slowing of these economies and thus a slowing in the growth of their oil consumption.

In addition to the above the technicals of the oil complex are a bit uncertain also especially for WTI. As I have been discussing for about a week WTI is mired in a technical triangular or consolidation pattern and as of this writing has still not broken out in either direction. That said over the last three sessions (including this morning so far) the market has showed signs of trying to break out to the upside. But so far it has failed. I am not sure what to expect today as volumetric activity will be below normal ahead of the long holiday weekend in the US. Nor would I put a lot of emphasis on a breakout today on low volume. So for the moment the technicals are still a neutral looking for a reason to move in either direction.

The above comments are meant to serve as food for thought as many of us in the US enjoy a long holiday weekend. I think the market is still laden with uncertainty and market participants are still widely divided on the view going forward. Whatever your individual view there is a high risk of reversals and changes in market sentiment at any time. The trading time horizon is still very short term making it even more difficult to get comfortable with a view and thus a flat price position to go with your view.

My individual market view is detailed in the table at the beginning of the newsletter. As I have been discussing the market is in a technical consolidation pattern with a low predictive level for the very short term time horizon. Prices remain within the technical triangular or consolidation pattern that has been in place for the last several weeks. However, as discussed WTI may be on the cusp of breaking out of the triangular pattern to the upside. If so we could see higher prices in the short term. For the short term I am keeping my overall view at neutral and as wells as my bias at neutral until the market breakouts out of the triangular consolidation pattern.

I am maintaining my Nat Gas view at cautiously bearish but keeping my bias to neutral as I still expect Nat Gas prices to make an attempt to test the $4/mmbtu level in the foreseeable future especially after yesterday's bearish EIA inventory report.

Currently asset classes are mixed as shown in the following table. We are at a long holiday weekend in the US as well as the end of the month which will result in window dressing continuing to come from the funds which could result in a continuation of the short covering rally in risk asset classes that seems to have begun yesterday.

Enjoy the three day weekend as the US kicks off its unofficial start of summer.

Best regards,
Dominick A. Chirichella
dchirichella@mailaec.com

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Forex: USD/JPY termina a semana abaixo 81,00

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - a dupla passou a maior parte do comércio semana num intervalo entre 81.30 e 82,20 até quinta-feira, quando o dólar quebrou um monte de maus indicadores macroeconómicos continua U.S. come sexta-feira, enviando USD/JPY Sul apesar da Fitch rebaixada japonês outlook de crédito.

Cruz caiu tão baixa quanto 80.70 sexta-feira, striking preço mais baixo em quase 2 semanas antes de rebotes ligeiramente para fechar o dia em torno de 80.85, exibindo a segunda perda straight diária, hoje para 0,52%.

USD/JPY também é estreita com perdas pela primeira vez em 3 semanas, depois de ter descartado 90 pips ou 1,11% desde segunda-feira.

As visões e opiniões aqui expressas são as visões e opiniões do autor e não reflectem necessariamente as da NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..

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Foco downloads: outra semana de Primavera Blues

Fundamentos de Forex downloads. Escrito por Danske Bank. Maio 27 11 16: 24 GMT

Mercado Movers frente

É tempo de folhas de pagamento e ISM não-agrícola. Estamos procurando decepção em ambos.A reunião de quinta-feira do BCE irá atrair muita atenção. Acreditamos que Jean-Claude Trichet vai dizer "uma forte vigilância" e informar esse fato uma caminhada em Julho.Euro Flash CPI deve permanecer inalterada em 2,8%.Chinês-PMI novo abrandamento ainda um relatório.A produção industrial e PMI para o Japão dará mais indicação do ritmo de recuperação após o terremoto hit.Dados em dinamarquês PIB no primeiro trimestre bounce T4. Na Suécia, o tempo é para venda a retalho e PMI. Ele se parece com uma semana muito ativa na Noruega com o ICC, o crescimento do crédito e rede regional dos dados da pesquisa Norges Bank.

Atualização global

Medo do crescimento está lá para ficar por algum tempo, como os efeitos persistentes dos altos preços do petróleo e o terremoto japonês vão continuar durante o verão.Os políticos do BCE e da UE continuam a lutar em boa estratégia PMIs Greece.Euro sinais de alguma desaceleração, mas a pesquisa de negócios Ifo continua a apontar para uma forte economia alemã.PMI e importação de dados confirma um crescimento mais lento na China como aperto medidas para impor-se.

Relatório completo em PDF

 

Banco danske

Disclaimer

Esta publicação foi preparada pelos mercados Danske exclusivamente para fins de informação. Não é uma oferta ou uma solicitação de uma oferta de compra ou venda de qualquer instrumento financeiro. Embora tenham sido tomadas as devidas precauções para assegurar que o conteúdo não seja falsa ou enganosa, nenhuma respresentação é feita quanto à precisão ou completude e nenhuma responsabilidade é aceito por qualquer perda resultante da confiança nele. Danske Bank, seu pessoal ou empresas afiliadas, pode executar serviços para empresa mantenha longa ou posições curtas em ou caso contrário estar interessado em investimentos (incluindo derivados), de qualquer emissor mencionados neste documento. Analistas danske Markets´ não são permitidos para investir em títulos sob a tampa em sua área de investigação. Esta publicação não é destinada a clientes privados para o Reino Unido ou qualquer pessoa nos Estados Unidos. Danske mercados é uma divisão da Danske Bank a/S, que é regulada pela FSA para o exercício da actividade de investimento designados do Reino Unido e é um membro da bolsa de valores de Londres. Copyright (©) Danske Bank a/S. Todos os direitos reservados. Esta publicação é protegida por direitos autorais e não pode ser reproduzida no todo ou em parte sem permissão.

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Euro termina semana sobre um igual pé mais empresa

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A potentially lethal week for Europe's single currency is heading to a positive end for the unit as fears of a crash in its fortunes have lost momentum. As the biggest bond holder in Athens, the European Central Bank has a vested interest in timely and wholesome debt repayment, which is why it states that restructuring is not an option. As the U.S. strolls into a long vacation weekend, behind the scenes discussion in Europe may yet result in a softening of the hardline at the ECB and is shielding the single currency from a worse outcome.

Click on link for updated table throughout the day at http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/FX-View.php?ib_entity=llc

Euro - Dealers are tidying up positions into the weekend being forced to cover bearish bets on the euro after bearish momentum increasingly turned positive during the week. A failure to build on downside pressures that sent the euro scurrying to beneath $1.40 for the first time since March 18, left dealers cautious about making further sell orders and left the euro vulnerable to short covering. The euro rose to as high as a weekly peak at $1.4230 on Friday despite improving consumer price data from German states. Five regions saw prices decline during April and is likely to see the annual pace across Europe's largest nation slip back close to 2% inflation on an annual basis. In a further sign that the recent bout of growth may have reached its peak, consumer confidence dipped in May across the Eurozone according to an EU report. The reading of -9.8 compares to an April reading of -9.7. An index of economic confidence slipped to 105.5 from 106.1 while confidence across both industry and services also eased. Yet with further potential for at least a July interest rate increase from the ECB, the euro has a steady advantage over the dollar for now.

U.S. Dollar - Friday brings further weakness for the dollar index and is chipping away at a rise throughout May, which, if sustained would mark only the first rise for the index since November. Dealers have this week returned to selling the dollar on the view that the Fed is hemmed in to a zero-interest rate policy. Consumer spending data due for release Friday is expected to show cash-strapped consumers spent les sin April as gasoline and food prices remained elevated. A reading of home sales waiting to be completed is also expected to dip for the month as an overhang in the sector continues to leave homeowners insensitive to low interest rates. Finally, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey is expected to remain unchanged for May at a reading of 72.4. The dollar index slid to 75.15 for a session loss of 0.6%.

British pound - The largest rebound in consumer confidence in 18 years gave investors perhaps unwarranted reason to send the British pound to its highest in two weeks, reaching $1.6460 against the dollar. The GfK confidence index surged from -31 to -21 for May and is likely accounted for by the feel-good factors of the Royal Wedding, wonderful early summer weather and more holidays in a month than most Americans get in a year, all topped off no doubt, by a few poolside beverages. No wonder the pound surged to end the week. The report has little to do with neither any shift in underlying household finances nor an improvement in confidence that is likely to be played out in the coming months. The euro made a further in road against the pound rising 0.5% to 86.64 pence.

Canadian dollar - Caught in the middle of a broad trading range, there is fresh to drive activity in the Canadian dollar at the end of the week. Interest rate expectations continue to ease as U.S. activity supports a view of unchanged policy action from the bank of Canada. The revival in commodity prices has prevented further deterioration in the loonie, which earlier in the week reached its lowest in two months against the greenback. Even crude oil at $100 per barrel seems a prerequisite to maintain stability in the Canadian dollar, which rose marginally Friday ahead of U.S. data to buy $1.0236 U.S. cents.

Aussie dollar - Thanks to its wider yield advantage over the greenback and the low likelihood of any near-term encroachment thanks to a stable Fed, the Aussie was able to accelerate a weekly upswing to close out the week. The unit rose to buy $1.0719 U.S. cents as prices spiked in the Asian time-zone. Domestic and regional stocks rose buoyed in part by a story from New Zealand whose Finance Minister Bill English confirmed that Asian investors he'd had first-hand dealings with, were interested in diversifying away from dollar investments in to those issued by his nation. This story builds on earlier news that China is interested in bailout bonds issued by stricken Eurozone governments and helps develop the risk-on theme.

Japanese yen - It was an interesting night for news from Japan. For the first time since December 2008 nationwide consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rose on a year-over-year basis. Coincidentally that was the month the Fed last reduced its monetary policy and hasn't moved since. Nationwide prices rose by 0.6% and as such the report marks the end of deflation for the nation. However, the situation is less straight-forward given the severe constraints hurting the supply chain during April in the aftermath of earthquake and tsunami disruptions. Meanwhile a report also showed sales at large retailers slid by 1.9% year-on-year indicating that it was not a return to consumption that caused prices higher. The yen had earlier surged against the dollar rising towards its best in two weeks at ¥80.83. However, the dollar is doing its best to recover its losses following a Fitch Ratings downgrade for the outlook for Japan. Fitch warned that "Japan's sovereign credit-worthiness is under negative pressure from rising government indebtedness." The ratings agency added that Japan needs a strategy to consolidate its fiscal affairs in order to bolster public finances in the face of an aging population.

Andrew Wilkinson

Senior Market Analyst ibanalyst@interactivebrokers.com       

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Relatório de resumo da actividade? semana s S? (27-5-11)

Breve resumo dos eventos week?s:.

Resultados positivos:

(1) Os preços da gasolina continuam a cair na semana 0,07 e confiança UDM sobe 4,5 pts em abril em resposta
(2) Apr novas vendas home bounce (em uma base muito baixa)
(3) Negócios alemão IFO demonstrar confiança mas melhor do que estimated…

Publicado em: fábrica de Forex.
Tagged: atividade · Abril · Negócios confiança · Novo gasolina preços vendas home · Relatório de resumo · Convocação · · Visualizar semana

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Perseguição penal do EUR/USD nesta semana & hitch; s consolidação com um número de ondas de Elliott

A curto prazo

Depois de uma correção de ziguezague na sessão anterior asiática, o mercado é não continuar a tendência descendente na sessão Europeu.

Em vez disso, o ziguezague pode ser a primeira correção de três ondas mais complexo. Ação do preço tem formado um declive ascendente antes de arrastar na semana passada (ver tabela 4 H).

Em vez de um canto, nesta semana parece que ele poderia desenvolver um duplo 3.

Nesse cenário, a CBA foi concluída uma onda w e o declínio da sessão asiática é vago X. Você espera uma nova correcção dos três ondas, mas ele não tem que ser um outro zig zag. Na verdade, podem assim formar 5-wave triângulos ou cunhas. Seria um duplo 3 com um y mais complicado.

O cenário de double s é apresentado na tabela 1 H acima, com o objetivo de igualdade de onda em 1.4180. Observe a resistência para o 1,4160, rastreamento de 50% e 200SMA no quadro 1 H.

Este cenário completamente é retornado se o mercado não está mais 1.4010. Uma pausa é a baixa 1.3970, em seguida, tentando 1.3750 em um outro Swale abaixo que. Neste cenário alternativo, já foram concluídos i e ii. Este nível 1.4010 torna-se novamente um pivô importante. Um cenário bearish deve ser incluído abaixo que a muito curto prazo para um descendente desenvolver estrutura de onda.

Continue a monitorar para dois cenários como eles estão no limbo durante a consolidação atual.

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