Franco suíço em grande parte superior para a aversão ao risco, as incertezas da zona euro, não alimentados nenhum IS3

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Eurozone and Greece news dominated headlines last week but it was Swiss Franc that shone over the week, making new record highs against both Dollar, Euro and Sterling. Greece Prime Minister Papandreou passed the confidence vote by a thin margin and will face parliamentary vote on the new austerity package this week before finally getting EU approval on the fifth bailout fund payment will be approved on July 3. Everybody in the markets is expecting the the Greece funding to be approved eventually but remained cautiously as this is still far from certainty. Meanwhile, worries on contagion never go away as Moody's turned focus to Italy and said it's considering downgrading a group of Italian banks. The debt crisis in Eurozone continued to weigh on market sentiments.

On the other hand, investors are clearly dissatisfied with Fed's outlook and the lack of talk on QE3. After the FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled that there will be no QE3 after expected completion of QE2 in June. Tone of the accompanying statement was less optimistic than the last one as the Fed noted that recovery is continuing "somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected." Fed also lowered GDP projection and raised unemployment projection. More in Fed On Hold and Less Optimistic, Dollar Mildly Firmer as Bernanke Hints No QE3. Economic data from US were generally soft and affirmed the view of slowdown in general.

Sterling was also one of the weakest currency after the dovish BoE minutes. Vote split of the June meeting changed from 6-3 to 7-1 in favor of no change after arch-hawk Sentance left the committee and was replaced by Broadbent, who joined the doves camp. Dale and Weale were the only hawk left, who voted for 25bps hike. The minutes were overall quite dovish as members' focus moved away from inflation threat to the fragile economic recovery. The minutes suggested that a near term hike is highly unlikely and BoE would instead keep rates unchanged until next year. Indeed, the note that the risk of undershooting the 2% inflation target over the next few years has increased. Meanwhile, some members thought "it was possible that further asset purchases might become warranted if the downside risks to medium-term inflation materialized."

Stocks and more notably, commodities, were generally lower after a volatile week. DOW finished the recovery from 11862 and dipped sharply since then. Technically, DOW is held below the falling 55 days EMA, thus, keeping the outlook bearish. We'd expect correction from 12890 to resume in near term, probably early this week to 38.2% retracement at 11639 and possibly further to below 11555.48 support. Such development would likely provide some support to the greenback.

The CRB commodities index also resumed the whole fall from 370.70 and reached as low as 326.88 last week. Crude oil breached 90 level and remained weak. Meanwhile, gold is back pressing 1500 level and should have reversed the near term trend. Broad based weakness in commodities should send the CRB index through 323.54 retracement level, possibly to 100% projection of 370.7 to 332.92 from 352.05 at 314. And the development should also provide support to dollar.

However, the tricky part of intermarket outlook is that dollar index is not having decisive strength yet as it's still kept below 76.36 resistance and doesn't sustain above medium term falling trend line from 88.70 yet. We'll continue to stay neutral. Note that break of 76.36 resistance should confirm medium term reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. And, in such case, we should see further rally in the dollar index through 77.17 projection target and possibly to 38.2% retracement of 88.70 to 72.69 at 78.80 at least.

So far, EUR/USD has been holding firmly above 1.4 level in spite of all the volatile price actions. And that's the major factor that's restricting dollar index's rise. On the other hand, if the above risk-off movements realize, swiss franc will likely continue to be the main beneficiary. GBP/CHF made another record low at 1.3271 last week and the downtrend is accelerating as seen in the falling, negative, weekly MACD. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3614 resistance holds and the down trend should extend to next medium term target of 61.8% projection of 2.4965 to 1.5112 from 1.8113 at 1.2024.

The Week Ahead

Greece's parliamentary vote on the austerity measures will definitely be a major focus of the week. In addition, as markets are clearly in a risk-off mode currently, much volatility would be triggered by the growth data this week, in particular the PMI data from China, Swiss, UK and the US ISM manufacturing. Another key event would be UK inflation report hearings where analysts would scrutinize the words from BoE policy makes to affirm the view that the bank would stand pat for the rest of this year.

Monday: New Zealand trade balance; US personal spending and incomeTuesday: Japan retail sales; Swiss UBS consumption indicator; German Gfk consumer sentiment, Prelim CPI; UK current account; GDP final, inflation report hearings; US S&P Case-Shiller house price; consumer confidenceWednesday: Japan industrial production; Swiss KOF leading indicator; Canadian CPI; US pending home sales; Thursday:UK nationwide house price; German unemployment, Eurozone M3, CPI flash; Canada GDP; US jobless claims, Chicago PMIFriday: Japan CPI, quarterly tank an; China PMI; Swiss SVME PMI; UK PMI manufacturing; Eurozone unemployment; US ISM manufacturing

EUR/CHF dropped to new record low at 1.1802 last week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.3833 to 1.2399 from 1.3243 at 1.1809. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and sustained trading below 1.18 should pave the way to long term projection target at 1.1516. On the upside, above 1.1968 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But sustained trading above near term falling channel (now at 1.2103) is needed to be the first signal of short term bottoming or we'll stay bearish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6827 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3243 resistance holds. The current down trend should now target 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. The is some side of re-acceleration as seen in weekly MACD and break of 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0609.

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Cautious alimentados e as obrigações de fogos de artifício impulso Europeu

O verdadeiro desafio com flexibilização quantitativa é quando a diretiva está funcionando. Forçando a curva de rendimento baixo o Banco Central incentivou a emprestar. Se a diretiva for bem sucedida, flash de indicadores económicos verde ignite activos e fazendo com que os preços sob pressão para cima na curva de rendimento investidores concluem que as condições monetárias devem ser revertidas. Quando a política não está funcionando, os investidores são alimentados por ela emprego: banqueiros comprar títulos medo um abrandamento e precisamente porque eles vêem alguns sinais de procura de empréstimos para clientes. Caminhar longe de sua segunda onda final de quantitativos facilitando a esquerda do Fed o mercado de títulos a si própria, deixando os compradores de títulos para encontrar um novo equilíbrio no caminho de desemprego mais baixo e mais duras de crescimento.

Long gilt futures- O Fed não disse reemissão nem em termos de flexibilização política: ele disse que tem ainda alguns truques as mangas, tal que cortar os banqueiros ou anunciando uma extensão das taxas de depósito a prazo para sua já linguagem de "longa duração". Mas uma descrição formal da economia e um liberal desmantelamento barbeia 0,4% de suas projeções de 2011 deixou mercados preocupado com crédito no futuro. Bond compradores são mais confortáveis com o retorno de um período de inflação benigno e manchete de hoje AIE que irá publicar as 60 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto para se protegerem de aumento dos preços da energia que ameaçaram a recuperação reforça esse ponto de vista sobre a inflação e fortalecer o dólar. Este ajudará a minar o caso do aumento dos preços das matérias-primas e mover rendimentos que um caminho mais baixo e uma recuperação natural de chegar de flexibilização quantitativa da ajuda. Tesouros de setembro subiram 124-14 para um novo contrato enquanto Long Gilt futuras aumentou para prazos diferidos. Privou-se curto final da curva de rendimentos devido a temores de aumentar a liquidez na Europa. Dez anos de desempenho de referência facilitada por seis pontos de 2.92%.

Bond - mercados europeus A cabeça de Trichet BCE aviso sinais de risco na região foram piscando vermelho tinha o mesmo tipo de impacto sobre o futuro da ligação e taxa de juro curta como quando ele avisa sobre a inflação. Euribor contratos aumentou, bem como para estender o período de baixas taxas de juros, apesar do fato de que o Banco Central apenas uma vez puxou sua taxa de referência. O BCE parece ser que mais in a box sua política prevalece para diminuir as pressões inflacionistas e guias de crescimento económico, enquanto os riscos para a montanha de economia global em tendo em conta o potencial perigosamente alto por padrão na Grécia. O futuro de Junho de 2012 viu seu slide implícita do desempenho em 10 pontos de base para o mais baixo desde meados de Janeiro, os investidores boudé pensei que o BCE aperto monetário ainda mais. A este ritmo, a confiança do ponto de vista do mercado que aumentar a uma taxa de Julho é que um negócio feito deve ser instalado no ar. O rendimento do bund alemão 10 anos escorregou por sete pontos de 2,87% mais contra a expansão da dívida do governo periférico cujos preços têm escorregou por medo de contágio financeiro no sector bancário. A confiança foi uma vez mais prejudicada pelos acontecimentos na Grécia. O chefe da oposição política, disse o jornal Financial Times que ele iria votar contra o pacote de austeridade Papandreou, enquanto o livro Interior que kathermerini disse que os funcionários da UE e o FMI tinham viabilidade medidas mais 2011 para um total de 3,8 mil milhões de euros para reduzir o défice grego. Estas medidas representam cerca de 60% do total para este ano.

Marrãs britânicas - futuro dourado de setembro são negociados em um contrato fresco alto de 61 tiques comício para 122.38 em novas preocupações sobre a saúde dos consumidores britânicos. Uma pesquisa de varejo CBI relatou uma perspectiva de crescimento das vendas de varejo "flat" provavelmente de acordo com os entrevistados para o relatório de pesquisa impressionado. Os minutos de sons MPC terrivelmente cautelosos sobre o recente mergulho na actividade económica, enquanto a perspectiva de uma nova onda de bond compras por investidores os Banco Central cavam seus dentes em um mercado de touro para títulos. Sterling curto como paridade euro / contratos fechar para cair enquanto o resto da curva tem mobilizaram como medos de liquidez a curto prazo ressurgiu no knuckles Europa para baixo para uma nova onda de crise. O desempenho referência ouro caiu quatro sementes 3,14%.

Projetos de lei canadense - uma queda no preço da mercadoria é uma boa notícia para a inflação hawks e decisão da AIE sobre a liberação do mundo para reduzir a ameaça de recuperação económica é certamente positivas notícias para o mundo curto-acabe. Rendimentos implícitos de nota fiscal datada de suma arrastados por seis outros pontos de base em Montreal. Posição financeira saudável no Canadá garante essa dívida emitida pelo governo para manter o ritmo com títulos do U.S.. O retorno sobre o documento do governo se recusou a 2,90% manter um desconto para que emitiu em Washington.

Contas australianas - as taxas de juro de mercado enviou uma mensagem forte para o banco de reserva que finalmente, ele concluiu que o Banco Central concluiu o seu processo de aperto. Dê uma olhada as lacunas entre o futuro de bill Aussie, que hoje têm aumentado mais nove pontos de base. O contrato de Dezembro liquidada até mesmo sobre o contrato de Setembro próximo, enquanto implícitos rendimentos de Junho de 2012 argumentam que três meses das taxas de 4,85% em dinheiro não vai passar. O achatamento da curva de rendimento nas últimas semanas é incrível especialmente em beligerante comentários do governador Stevens, que não tem aumentado recentemente parecer que as taxas devem subir em algum momento ". Um relatório PMI chinês durante a noite para a fabricação do HSBC descrevendo uma moratória em Pequim, todos os olhos estarão em rendimentos Aussie dos sinais de uma inversão da curva de rendimento em resposta a uma crise global da inflação-rebentando provenientes da Europa.

Links de japonês - japonês da curva de rendimento é de dois a dez anos dos títulos do Tesouro aumentaram em resposta para o modo de exibição do Fed taciturno que acompanhou a conclusão da reunião do FOMC de Junho. Os rendimentos de dois anos entrou em colapso até agora em 2010 enquanto o contrato de Setembro se reunirá avançada por 16 sementes 141.29 empurrando o desempenho de 10 anos de referência por um pip para 1,11% para o mais baixo. Os rendimentos de dois anos, facilitados a 0,15% da economia do terceiro mundo para a leitura mais baixa desde novembro.

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Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

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CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

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Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

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CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here

Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

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CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here

Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

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CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here