Preços do ouro e deflação

Armazenamento de valor, em vez de tentar crescer, é mais uma vez a assumir a liderança...

Aumento dopreço do ouro em numerário e títulos falhar combater a inflação. Isso é verdadeiro na década de 1970, e foi um verdadeiro novo na década passada, escreve Adrian cinzas em BullionVault.

Por duas vezes, mas também vencê-los das existências e produtos industriais também. Talvez porque o armazenamento de valor, em vez de tentar crescer, prevalece o custo de vida feeds no seu capital.

Mas agora, em seguida, qual será o preço do ouro?

"Os mercados não fornecem inflação;" "profissionais meteorologistas não espera que a inflação e os economistas que sabem como fazer seu trabalho não esperava inflação," diz economista da Universidade Brad DeLong em seu blog.

Escusado será dizer que inflação 5-ano tesouro obrigações ver inflação futura ou o mercado global de ouro claramente ele teme. Nunca se esqueça que as ligações convencionais não despertar para a inflação da década de 1970 até 1980 e nunca o espírito de hoje como "falhar" por meteorologistas profissionais em Maio nos dados de postos de trabalho. (Mas ei, eles foram vendidos um pup em Março e em leituras falsas de abril).

E qualquer que economists-who-know-how-to-do-their-job são todos demasiado frequentemente agora em um trabalho diferente, tentando executar a economia, em vez de observar-os e escolhendo em toda parte para desvalorizar o dinheiro no mais rápido ritmo - contador de post-inflation das taxas de juro - para bem mais de três décadas.

Não, "como a inflação que preferir, não há nenhuma razão para apertar," como um companheiro de economista de DeLong Paul Krugman, blogging no New York Times.

Se a inflação é negativa - tornando assim taxas de juros reais positivas, embora a taxa oficial caiu para zero? Fora do Japão no início de 2000 e o apagamento total-saiu na Primavera de 2009, a história moderna não oferece nenhum exemplo.

Duas vezes, economistas especializados exortou os responsáveis a reduzir a taxa de juros nominal zero de alguma forma, imprimindo dinheiro para depósitos excessos de banco ou de impostos ou geralmente destroem dinheiro, para que as taxas reais poderiam permanecer negativas.

Eles duas vezes, mas aumentou em termos nominais e reais. O que dá...?

Aqui em Maio de 2011, há uma diferença de "desenvolvimento" entre atributos do produto industrial e metais preciosos, notas, relatório mais recente do padrão e pobres.

Divide suas própria s & P GSCI metais industriais índice por índice de metais preciosos, a Agência controla a força relativa de metais valiosos contra menos industrialmente úteis (mas socialmente mais valioso) metais ouro e prata.

"Geralmente esta relação foi positivamente correlacionada com o índice S & P 500 U.S.],]", diz o relatório. Que faz sentido, porque a demanda industrial e capital de risco tenderá a mover-se na mesma direção. Mas "o rácio diminuiu novamente em Maio," disse s & P, para baixo "para essencialmente o mesmo nível que ele atingiu no final de Maio, 2009".

"O que é desconcertante para muitos analistas é o fato de que o s & P500 aumentaram 54,23% no mesmo período de dois anos." A implicação é que extremamente baixas taxas de juros e facilitando quantitativos provavelmente influenciam o nível de ativos reais. Ao mesmo tempo, a proporção de industrial... ativo pedido directo sobre o plano econômico é não manter-se com demanda para reserva de valor. »

Mais dizendo ainda, S & p mercado atributos também imprime um gráfico do índice s & p contra o preço do ouro-prata ratio. Ele mostra (ver página 5) como uma relação de queda - com ouro tornando-se menos valioso em termos de primo industrialmente úteis - geralmente coincide com o aumento dos mercados bolsistas. Mas a razão de ouro-prata apenas saltou, um mínimo de três anos máximos perto de 31 onças de prata a 1 onça de ouro em 40 e acima.

"Risco-Off e destruição do aplicativo," é como o s & p relatório resume maio de 2011. Observar o valor crescente de ouro - dinheiro de mão, outros produtos industriais e ações ordinárias - é um atalho simple, demasiado. Porque o armazenamento de valor, em vez de tentar crescer, é também que o risco para a sua capital é que ele poderia desaparecer completamente como a receber e empresas vão à falência dos preços reais de deflação.

Se a deflação Obtém sorte, claro, antes dos banqueiros centrais e economistas para ir trabalhar destruindo suas economias primeiras.

Pensando em armazenar algumas das suas economias como um investimento de ouro?...

View the original article here

A deflação de inflação vs 22/6/11

Eu não sou inteligente o suficiente para saber o que é melhor para a economia e a deflação, a inflação, mas eu sei que as coisas custam mais que eles costumavam e eu pensei que era a inflação. Talvez precise voltar para a escola... não é que Ben fácil? Petróleo bruto pegou terreno para terceiro consecutivo sessão hoje transportando preços perto do dia do 9 MA em seus encontros. Como dissemos ontem que precisamos ver destilados virar bruto poderiam reverter... RBOB baixo bruto ultrapassou 3% e pico de quase 2% de óleo de aquecimento. Procurar evidências adicionais nas próximas sessões e, em seguida, nós deve estar no modo de touro novamente. Fez um novo registro de gás natural e não é, mas o recente vender tem arrastado os preços em níveis exagerados, nós amamos vitórias longa exposição. No momento que nosso jogo sugerido é aquisição de recurso touro de Setembro se espalha. Dia do Interior em índices e o rali até que o Fed poderia ter dado suficiente. Se não formos capazes de comércio acima dos preços de 1295 nesta semana irá provavelmente cabeça voltar para o 1265. Trilha longa pára para proteger os lucros. O livro tem caído hoje é o grande perdedor em mais de 1% desta posição. Gráfico danos, e nós mudamos nosso viés altista de Rali aqui o formulário. O dólar canadense é ainda uma compra em nossos olhos e deve reunir vapor se avançar metais e energias. Ir para a linha de toque para gado vivo e magra de porco e deixar os preços recuar, assim podemos restaurar característica dos níveis inferiores. Ouro e prata mantiveram pequenos ganhos mas são atualmente comércio bem ao largo da Costa de suas cúpulas da sessão. Mantemos nosso shorterterm e acho que os dois metais devem ser acumulados nesses níveis. Cacau bateu o dia 200 MA duas vezes na última semana de três, mas nos dois casos, ganhos foram limitados. Em um comércio acima 3055 em setembro de olhar para a dinâmica. O açúcar é uma venda... uma valorização de cerca de 25% nas últimas cinco semanas não se justifica em nosso ponto de vista. Um banho de sangue é a única maneira de explicar a ação na agricultura hoje. Os clientes serão aconselhados a comprar esta disposição e ser longo relatório de 30 de Junho, USDA, mas infelizmente alguns já estão muito trigo e óleo de soja e hoje não era tipo a eles. Permanecem assim por muito tempo, mas reconhecem que o dano não pode ser. Acreditamos que o trigo deve negociar volta perto de US $ 8/alqueire até final de Junho começo de julho que é por isso que realizámos. Como temos manifestado ontem treasuries olhando pesado, mas eles têm por semanas. Comércio abaixo no dia 20 MA deve ser um alto provisório; Este nível é 7' 125 em títulos de 30 anos e 123'07 em notas de 10 anos.

ArticlesSubscribe relacionados ao início de novos e futuros de comida para os investidores e comerciantes interessados no mercado da amostra das matérias-primas

Divulgação dos riscos: o risco de perda no comércio das commodities futures e opções pode ser substancial. Desempenho passado não é nenhuma garantia de resultados futuros negócios.

View the original article here

Japão morcego deflação em Abril

27 De Maio de 2011 updated 09: 37 GMT Japão lutou em mais de uma década para a deflação batida do Japão para a primeira vez em dois anos, como a importação de petróleo subiu após o terremoto e tsunami, a queda dos preços.

Preços no consumidor aumentados 0,6% em abril em relação ao ano anterior, de acordo com o Bureau de estatísticas.

No entanto, Agência de classificação de crédito Fitch rebaixado suas perspectivas sobre a dívida do Japão a negativa de testing.

Fitch disse que ele estava preocupado com os altos níveis de dívida do governo do Japão.

"O Japão creditícia soberana é sob pressão negativa do aumento da dívida pública, disse Andrew Colquhoun da Fitch".

"Uma estratégia de consolidação fiscal mais forte é necessária para a sustentabilidade das finanças públicas contra a tendência estrutural danificar o envelhecimento da população no buffer".

Em Janeiro deste ano, a Agência de Rating Standard & o downgrade para Japão pobre crédito avaliação de AA a AA-, citando também do Japão de agravamento da situação da dívida para o movimento.

Off?

O aumento no índice de preços ao núcleo de consumidor do Japão em Abril, que exclui os preços dos alimentos, tem sido em grande parte, de acordo com as expectativas.

Alimentos, os preços no consumidor aumentados 0,3% em Abril do ano anterior.

O Japão tem sido lutando contra a deflação ou cair os preços, por mais de uma década.

Continue a ler a história principal

embora espero que os gastos do consumidor vai se recuperar em Maio e os próximos meses após o desastre, ordenados e salários não foram aumentados. "

Final citar Hiromichi Shirakawa, economista-chefe, crédito Suíça enquanto potencialmente positivo para os compradores de Avid de inesperados, deflação realmente leva para as empresas e a maioria dos consumidores adiando compras, na esperança de que os preços will continuem to fall."

Os dados de Abril são improváveis inverter esta tendência, porque os ganhos veio em grande parte do aumento dos preços dos combustíveis.

Em 11 de Março, terremoto e tsunami deixaram mais de 24 000 mortos ou desaparecidos.

Ele também destruiu algumas da capacidade do Japão para produzir electricidade.

O país importa grandes quantidades de combustível para fazer a diferença.

"Produtos e os preços do petróleo bruto empurrar números da inflação," disse o crédito Suíça chefe economista Hiromichi Shirakawa.

"Embora eu esperar recuperar em Maio os gastos dos consumidores e os próximos meses como consequência do desastre, ordenados e salários não aumentaram."

Ele acrescentou: "Eu estou preocupado com o consumidor a verão".

A economia de Japão, terceiro maior, o mundo entrou em recessão após a devastação causada pelo terremoto e tsunami.

Produto interno bruto diminuído 0,9% nos primeiros três meses do ano.

Agora, a economia do Japão contratado por dois trimestres consecutivos, a definição geralmente aceite uma recessão.

View the original article here

Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request
Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request

CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here

Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request
Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request

CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here

Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request
Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request

CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here

Alimentados "Escolherá hiperinflação durante a deflação"

Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request
Translate Request has too much data
Parameter name: request

CLIVE MAUND has been president of clivemaund.com, since it began in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London.

In this interview with The Gold Report, Clive Maund reveals why he believes excellent buying opportunities for gold and silver are in the pipeline...

The Gold Report: Clive, in a recent note on your website you said, "The general investing public are sheep, they like to move together in large groups, have a kind of vacant stare, are routinely fleeced and eventually slaughtered. That's why when they are very confident, it's time to get scared, and vice versa." 

Further to the point, you suggested that the investing public is confident in gold and bearish on the Dollar, and that those two factors could result in a rebound in the greenback and a fall for gold. Please expound upon your theory.

Clive Maund: The main basis of my theory is sentiment, during the first week of May, before the Dollar started rallying, only about 16% of the public was bullish on the Dollar - almost a record low. 

Sentiment hasn't been this bad since 2003. An article pointing this out was posted on my site on April 28. It also pointed out the danger posed by this to commodity stocks, especially to silver. 

Adam Hamilton, of Zeal Research, picked up on this too, and also is calling for a big Dollar-countertrend rally. The papers have been full of stories about how the Dollar is set to collapse, and when that happens we are usually on the verge of a rally. 

The Dollar index rose sharply from the 5th of May and has broken out of its downtrend in force from the start of the year and could get as high as 79 on this move. While this is certainly not good news for commodities, we should be presented with a major buying opportunity once the Dollar rally has run its course. 

TGR: You believe that the Federal Reserve ultimately will unleash more quantitative easing (QE3) to help prop up the Dollar. Will that be the buying opportunity you're talking about, or will it come sooner than that?

Clive Maund: Right now, it's in the Fed's interests to encourage investors to believe there will be no QE3 in order to panic them out of commodities and stocks and into the Dollar and Treasuries. This will buy it time and help reduce inflationary pressures. After the Fed has achieved this result, it will need to backpedal quickly, do QE3 anyway to prevent the economy stopping dead in its tracks and continue ringfencing the derivatives problem. 

TGR: How far off is this buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: I believe that the corrective phase in commodities is likely to take the form of a 3-wave zigzag. Gold and silver, and copper too, look to be shaping up for a tradable short-term relief rally soon, which will be driven by bargain hunting combined with oversold technicals. 

This should be followed by a more sedate decline than that of early May to a lower low than that which occurred about a week ago, which may see silver drop as low as $28 - with seasonal factors suggesting that this low may occur about late July, give or take a few weeks. I believe such a low will present a major buying opportunity.

TGR: In a previous interview with The Gold Report, you said, "As long as inflation has the upper hand, which the recent action of the commercial banks and institutions in scaling back their short positions demonstrates to be the case, investors can look forward to advancing commodity and stock markets. The big danger for investors is deflation." Are we any closer to deflation now?

Clive Maund: I don't believe we are. The fundamental reason for this is that the consequences of deflation in a debt-saturated world would be so catastrophic - especially for business leaders and politicians - that the Fed will move heaven and earth to prevent it and will even choose hyperinflation above deflation because it buys the Fed more time. 

The plunge in silver during the first two weeks of May was largely due to the successive raising of margin requirements, which was a deliberate and successful tactical move by the powers that be to pop the silver bubble that was shining a revealing spotlight on its inflationary policies, though the drop in silver also is thought to have been partly due to the market anticipating a Dollar rally. 

TGR: Let's talk more about silver. A note on your site said, "After last week's devastating plunge, the silver battlefield is littered with the corpses of silver longs with those who are still breathing being exhorted to "put their shoulder to the wheel" again by the undismayed silver cheerleaders hailing a 'fantastic buying opportunity' for the ride of a lifetime." Is it still a fantastic buying opportunity?

Clive Maund: Although a significant and tradable relief rally is to be expected after silver's brutal plunge in early May, silver is not thought to have completed its corrective phase yet. This is because a substantial Dollar rally is believed to have already started; so if you wait a little while, you should be presented with a better buying opportunity. More aggressive traders may want to play the relief rally expected soon, but average investors may want to wait for the expected lower low later. 

Silver could drop back to the high $20s before this Dollar rally is done and that should present a great buying opportunity, higher margin requirements or not. This is because inflation is expected to continue to build in the direction of hyperinflation, as QE is the only way out due to the massive debt and derivatives overhang. 

The game plan is to inflate away the debt and backstop the big Wall Street banks to whatever extent necessary because they are, as we have been told repeatedly, "too big to fail." This means gold and silver are eventually set to go much, much higher.

TGR: How should investors mitigate risk in their portfolios when the possible outcomes of our economic situation are quite dramatically different? 

Clive Maund: The two methods that we use are traded options and inverseETFs. A word of caution about leveraged ETFs - they should only be employed where the potential is thought to exist for a big move contrary to your open positions. 

The reason for this is because they have an options component, they are prone to price erosion in a flat market. So, most of the time, it is better to use non-leveraged ETFs, which are held for only a short time until the danger has passed. Options are a simple, fair and cheap way to buy protection and thus favored - a great thing about them is that even when trading is thin, market makers have to both make a market and honor the intrinsic value of the option; this is what is meant by fair. Used in this capacity, they are not speculative at all. On the contrary, they should be viewed as insurance.

TGR: A lot of your investment decisions seem to rely on charts and technical analysis. What sort of patterns are you looking at in these charts? Are there some basic things our readers can look for that will help them find companies that are about to break out?

Clive Maund: There certainly are. The main thing you want to see is the price rising away from a clear basing pattern and the longer and more definite the base pattern, within reason, the better, and you also want to see a favorable moving average alignment. You should seldom invest against the direction of the long-term 200-day moving average - when you have this on your side your odds of failure are greatly reduced. 

There are various patterns that we employ to advantage, such as Ascending Triangles, Double and Triple Bottoms, Fan Corrections, Falling Wedges etc. and we pay close attention to trading volume and volume indicators, principally the Accumulation-Distribution and On-balance Volume lines. 

Never forget that volume is the lifeblood of the market so studying volume patterns can help you gauge whether money is flowing into or out of a stock, especially as volume action precedes price movement. Knowing this enables us to position ourselves AHEAD of breakout moves. 

TGR: You operate out of Chile. Please tell us about that country and the investment climate for mined commodities there.

Clive Maund: Chile is generally a pleasant place to live. Politically, it is stable and liberal. Housing and land is cheap compared to countries like Canada and the US. The income tax rate is low, though taxes are collected in other ways like a high vehicle road tax and high taxes on gasoline and other purchase taxes. 

The food is abundant and cheap, especially in the south of the country, and wine also is cheap and excellent. There are limitless beaches and mountains because, of course, the country is sandwiched between the mountains and the sea. There are good air and bus services up and down the country but hardly any railroads. Internet coverage is good now, too.

TGR: What about the Chilean economy, especially as it pertains to mining?

Clive Maund: Chile is actually a far more fiscally prudent country than the US. It does not have careening deficits, and the workforce is obliged to contribute to a private pension scheme that has in fact grown in value far more than government schemes in countries like the US. That means the Chilean government is not on the hook for massive pension obligations, as many other governments around the world are. Those governments will probably renege on these obligations, at least in part, by a combination of inflation and fiddling the inflation statistics.

Chile is very mining friendly and has a sophisticated infrastructure to support mining companies conducting operations. In addition, environmental factors are not such a concern here as most of the mining operations and prospects are located in northern Chile. 

The north is a rather sparsely populated desert but with towns dotted around to provide amenities, logistical support and a skilled workforce. It is still not widely appreciated that there is a line of hills or low mountains between the Andes and the coast that harbor massive as-yet-undiscovered copper-gold deposits that will be relatively easy to mine. 

TGR: Thank you for talking with us today, Clive. This has been very informative.

View the original article here